Mitch Marner will return to Toronto to take on the Maple Leafs in what may be the most anticipated matchup of the regular season Friday. You can expect plenty of boo-birds for Marner from the Maple Leafs’ passionate fanbase, as is their right as paying customers. That should provide an excellent atmosphere for the game, and if last Thursday’s matchup in Vegas is any indicator, this matchup could feature some fireworks.
The Golden Knights tied last week’s matchup with seven seconds left, before Jack Eichel ultimately completed the Knights’ comeback by scoring the team’s sixth goal of the game in overtime.
Our SGP for that matchup was priced out at +725, and lost in heartbreaking fashion thanks to the Knights’ late equalizer. My guess would be that there were plenty of same game parlay bettors who did cash big on the matchup, as the majority of top stars from both sides did find the scoresheet and go over their respective shot props.
I’m eager to take another crack at it with our same game parlay, which prices out at +1100 at the time of writing and is eligible for the 30% same game parlay boost offered by bet365 for Friday’s NHL slate.
- Regulation Tie
- Auston Matthews Anytime Goalscorer
- Mitch Marner Over 0.5 Assists
Nick’s Knights/Leafs SGP
Leg 1—Regulation Tie
Betting on a game to end in a regulation tie is a solid starting point for a long-shot parlay that involves props with star players from both sides, as it ensures a competitive game script in which both head coaches offer big minutes to their best skaters.
Backing any Knights game, in particular, to require overtime this season appears to be a good move, as 19 of Vegas’s 49 games have required overtime. Out of the Knights’ last 15 road games, seven have required overtime and 10 have been one-goal games.
The Knights are priced as slight favourites to win this game, but it’s hard to imagine that the Leafs will ever lose in blowout fashion in this spot. With that said, Toronto has generated only 2.94 xGF/60 over the last 10 games and could struggle to pull away barring a horrid performance from Adin Hill in goal.
Though the Leafs would surely love to win this game big, in general it seems reasonable to argue that matchups where neither team is likely to offer a letdown performance are more likely to feature competitive scorelines, as we saw in Toronto’s important divisional matchup versus the Detroit Red Wings on Wednesday, Saturday’s Hockey Night in Canada clash versus the Winnipeg Jets, and the previous matchup between these two sides.
If you personally have player props that you have plenty of conviction towards in this matchup, I would not use this leg. From simply a standard betting perspective though, I do believe a price of +310 for the game to end in a tie does offer value in this matchup, so I’m happy to roll with it and try to hit a moonshot.
Leg 2 —Auston Matthews To Score
Until we receive reason to believe differently, even a seemingly modest price of +100 to back Matthews scoring a goal seems quite reasonable right now, as the Leafs captain is back to looking like the guy who tallied 69 goals only two seasons ago. And even for as disappointing as the last season and a half has been for Matthews, he’s still scored at least one goal in 46% of games, despite clearly being hampered by injury for much of that span.
Matthews has certainly not looked to be dealing with any nagging injury of late, as his shot has featured greater velocity (as is proven by NHL Edge Data), and he’s looked much more threatening. He’s recorded 11 goals over the last 13 games and generated 8.72 individual expected goals.
Matthews scored in three straight prior to Wednesday’s tightly-contested matchup versus the Red Wings, including a goal in the previous matchup between these sides. He had some quality looks in Wednesday’s matchup, and I’m still invested in a seemingly consensus belief that Matthews is no longer the same skater we saw earlier on in the campaign.
Leg 3 —Mitch Marner Over 0.5 Assists
Marner has recorded 21 assists and 29 points over the last 25 games, tallying at least one assist in 16 of those matchups. The Knights should have a decent chance of a solid offensive output in this matchup versus a Leafs side allowing 4.01 xGA/60 over the last 10 games, and if they are to find enough offence to hang around in a game where I believe the Leafs will have a good offensive night, it seems to be a safe bet to add Marner to record at least one assist.
Marner played fairly well in the previous meeting between these sides, recording two primary assists, while another one came off the board due to an offside review. He’s slowly adjusting to a role as the team’s second line centre, where his excellent distributing skills should seemingly be of more value.
Based on his current role on the team’s top power-play unit, as well as skating alongside a pure goal-scorer in Pavel Dorofeyev at even strength, I’d rather take the longer price for Marner to impact this game by specifically recording an assist than by scoring a goal.
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