Anytime the Calgary Flames and Edmonton Oilers go head-to-head in the Battle of Alberta, it offers a can’t-miss matchup for NHL fans. The two rivals will meet for the first time since opening night Tuesday, a matchup which saw the underdog Flames close a 3-0 deficit and ultimately win via the shootout.
Tuesday’s Battle of Alberta comes at an interesting time, as both sides have been in strong form of late. Powered by a better run of play offensively, the Flames are 10-4-1 over the last 15 games, while in the same span Edmonton is 9-4-2. Our three-leg parlay prices out at +600 on bet365 and will target what will hopefully be a high-scoring, closely-contested matchup.
- Over 6.5 Total Goals (+110 straight bet odds)
- Calgary Flames +1.5 (-160 straight bet odds)
- Connor McDavid Anytime Goal-Scorer (+135 straight bet odds)
Nick’s Flames vs. Oilers SGP
Leg 1—Over 6.5 (+110 straight bet odds)
Part of the reason the Battle of Alberta has built up such a strong reputation for being can’t-miss hockey is the fact that the fiercely contested games have typically been quite high scoring, as the last 18 head-to-head matchups have averaged 7.22 goals per game.
Teams and coaches change, and that trend obviously doesn’t have a ton of predictive relevancy for Tuesday’s matchup. But based on where these teams have been at of late, it seems that this matchup, the last game before the teams begin their holiday breaks, should be fairly high-scoring.
Over the last 15 games, the Flames have scored an average of 3.40 goals per game, and have generated an average of 30.32 shots on goal per 60. The quality of Calgary’s scoring chances is debatable and it has typically finished chances at a low rate over the last two years, but a matchup versus either Calvin Pickard or Connor Ingram could be well-suited to help the Flames get the most out their offensive approach of pouring everything on target.
And while the Oilers have been better lately, they are still far from a defensive powerhouse. Their bottom six tends to get caved in most nights, while they have numerous defenders who can make costly mistakes under pressure, and the Flames do forecheck quite effectively.
The Oilers are one of only four teams that have scored a higher goal per game average than the Flames over the last 15 games, generating a total of 3.87 goals per game. Connor McDavid has been on fire of late, aided by the returns of Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, while Leon Draisaitl’s even-strength unit also looks more dangerous with Jack Roslovic now back in the fold.
Both teams seem likely to contribute to the total in this matchup, and backing the game to go over 6.5 goals sets up as a strong first leg.
Leg 2-Calgary Flames +1.5 (-160 straight bet odds)
We touched on it earlier in the piece, but the Flames have been playing a very sound overall game while earning a record of 10-4-1 over the last 15 games. And what’s most important to our parlay given that we need over 6.5 goals and Connor McDavid to score without the Flames losing by two or more, is that the Flames have really turned it on offensively in particular.
The Flames hold a 52.11% expected goal share over the last 15 games and have generated 3.82 xGF/60. Their defensive core is doing a better job of getting pucks up the ice quickly and jumping into the attack to help an offensive corps that lacks a true superstar.
While the Flames don’t have anything close to a skater like McDavid or Draisaitl, they do have three competent offensive lines capable of causing problems, and they should have a good chance of generating some quality chances based on their depth versus a very top-heavy Oilers side.
And while Connor Ingram did have a solid season debut on Sunday for the Oilers, he’s still a goaltender who holds the worst save percentage in the AHL among qualified goaltenders this season. It’s too early to believe he will offer better than average results. Or if the Oilers opt to go with Calvin Pickard, we know he’s an ineffective option at the NHL level this season based on his .861 save percentage and 3.93 GAA across 13 starts.
One last factor to like about backing the Flames +1.5 is it does seem quite apparent that head coach Kris Knoblauch’s Oilers side becomes extremely passive once they garner multi-goal leads, which offers us the potential of sneaking this leg out in some worst case scenarios.
On top of the fact that the Oilers seem to go into a shell tactically more so than most NHL teams with a lead, it certainly doesn’t help that while up multiple goals the team starts to roll all four offensive units more evenly, which is always likely to be a concern as the bottom two lines have been heavily outchanced and outscored this season.
Leg 3-Connor McDavid Anytime Goal-Scorer (+135 straight bet odds)
McDavid has definitely had a little bit of extra jump when playing in the Battle of Alberta historically, as dating back to his rookie season, he’s put up 29 goals and 63 points in 43 games versus the Flames.
McDavid is in the midst of one of the most productive months of his incredible career, as in 11 games since the start of December the Oilers captain has put up 12 goals and 26 points, including numerous highlight-reel goals off of rushes to the goal at a hellacious speed.
What seems more apparent right now is that McDavid is more selfishly driving pucks to the crease on solo efforts, and that he’s commanding the puck early on in the play to try and attack with speed.
You don’t need analytics to see that what McDavid is doing right now is incredible, but the recent underlying metrics do agree with the idea that he’s getting more high quality scoring chances than usual and may not be looking to pass quite as often. Over the last five games, McDavid has generated 4.24 individual expected goals from a total of 38 shot attempts.
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