Tuesday’s Champions League showdown at Stamford Bridge sees Chelsea hosting Barcelona in a marquee clash with major implications for Group Stage qualification. Both soccer clubs enter the match level on points, setting the stage for a tense, high-quality encounter in London as they fight to secure a spot in the knockout rounds.
Our best bet for Chelsea vs. Barcelona is over 3.5 goals scored.
Chelsea vs. Barcelona best bet
Over 3.5 goals scored
Neither Chelsea nor Barcelona has impressed in European competition this season. Despite achieving substantial success domestically, both teams have struggled defensively.
Remarkably, no team in both La Liga and the Premier League top five has conceded more goals than Chelsea and Barcelona. Chelsea has let in 11 goals in the Premier League, more than any team in the top six, while Barcelona has conceded 15 goals in La Liga, surpassing any team in the top five.
The underlying metrics in the Champions League present an even more troubling scenario. Over the course of four matches, Chelsea has conceded an average of 1.5 goals per game, whereas Barcelona has allowed 1.8 goals per match.
Both teams enter this match following unexpected draws in their previous outings. Barcelona was held by Club Brugge, while Chelsea drew 2-2 against Qarabag. With a pressing need for victory, both teams are likely to adopt an aggressive approach, which may further expose their defensive weaknesses.
Lastly, according to BETSiE’s predictions, we can expect 3.40 goals in this match. Chelsea is expected to contribute 1.73 goals, and Barcelona 1.67. While expectations have slightly affected the odds, we see significant value in backing over 3.5 goals given all factors at play.
Chelsea vs. Barcelona match context
A match that feels like a playoff showdown for those vying to break into the top eight.
Chelsea and Barcelona face off at Stamford Bridge, both sitting on seven points after each securing a somewhat eventful draw in the last round.
Despite their significant attacking potential, both teams have been defensively lacking in this phase of the competition.
Together, they have already conceded 13 goals, with only the Blues managing a clean sheet once, against Benfica at home. This may be partly due to the inexperience of the many young players in both squads.
Excitement is likely guaranteed, especially considering that Barcelona have scored in each of their last 24 games in the Champions League, totaling 67 goals; that’s the longest current streak by any team.
Despite this, the hosts are favoured, with a 44% implied probability of victory, according to the latest Chelsea vs Barcelona odds.
Chelsea vs. Barcelona odds analysis
The Chelsea vs Barcelona odds have the Premier League team as favourites in the 1×2 market, with home advantage likely playing a pivotal role. However, the closeness of the odds suggests that Barcelona would be priced as favourites if the upcoming game were hosted at a neutral venue.
An Asian handicap of +0.25 has been handed to Barcelona. This handicap will return half profits to any pro-Barcelona bettors if the game ends as a draw.
If Chelsea is to earn a positive result against Barca, the Blues’ summer signing from Brazil might need to put in a stellar performance. Estêvão is Chelsea’s top scorer in the UEFA Champions League this season (two goals), registering a goal in each of his first two starts in the competition.
However, there are 10 players priced shorter than Estêvão in the anytime goalscorer market. Joao Pedro and Robert Lewandowski both assume the role as favourites, with Ferran Torres, Liam Delap, and Raphinha just behind.
The Asian goal line in the Chelsea vs Barcelona odds stands at over/under 3.25. Interestingly, Hansi Flick has never witnessed an opponent keep a clean sheet against one of his teams in the UEFA Champions League. The German head coach has taken charge of 36 matches in the competition, with 18 overseeing Barcelona and 18 with Bayern Munich. If that continues for Flick and Chelsea builds on the 16/17 games when they’ve scored at least one goal this season, the over 3.25 goal selection might be threatened.