This week’s edition of Wednesday Night Hockey should be a good one, as Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers will face off against Alex Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals.
Let’s construct a same-game parlay at bet365 for this exciting NHL matchup that consists of three legs and prices out at +1300:
- Regulation Tie (+320 as a straight)
- Jack Roslovic to Record a Point (-125 straight bet odds)
- Connor McMichael to Record a Point (+105 straight bet odds)
Nick’s Oilers vs. Capitals SGP
Leg 1 – Regulation Tie (+320 odds as a straight bet)
We’ve been loving betting into the amount of games requiring overtime this season with bets on three-way ties, which is typically priced north of +310. As I touched on ahead of Monday’s matchup between the Montreal Canadiens and Columbus Blue Jackets, over 28% of NHL games have required overtime this season, and there seems to be some legitimate causation towards that trend.
While my recommendation is not to blindly bet into the trend of games requiring overtime at a greater rate than oddsmakers are expecting, it is certainly a good option in games that seem likely to be closely contested and works well alongside the rest of our SGP, where we are counting on an offensive skater from each side recording a point.
We missed our +1140 Oilers SGP last Wednesday in frustrating fashion, as we hit the regulation tie leg, as well as Matvei Michkov recording a point, but McDavid did not record three shots on goal. We then hit our +300 SGP on Edmonton’s matchup Saturday, which also required overtime.
I’m happy to stick with the framework of backing an Oilers game to require overtime, as seven of their last 12 games have gone past regulation. McDavid and Leon Draisaitl offer the team an avenue to steal some points from any matchup and play plenty of minutes in matchups where the Oilers are trailing, giving them a strong chance of knotting things up.
Edmonton’s overall process has not been overly convincing, however, as its bottom six has been heavily outplayed this season, while its goaltending has been shaky playing behind a shaky defensive core.
The Capitals have played well at even strength this season and have played a lot of competitive matchups but have not displayed the offensive upside to put games out of reach very often and have struggled mightily on special teams.
Both teams will be desperate to get something out of this matchup, and I’m expecting the game to be highly competitive and that we will see close scorelines. throughout the majority of the game, giving our regulation tie a fighting chance despite it’s hefty price tag.
Leg 2 – Jack Roslovic to Record a Point (-125 odds as a straight bet)
The majority of Edmonton’s roster was horrible on Monday night versus the Buffalo Sabres, and Roslovic was one of the few Oilers skaters whose performance stuck out in a good way. Roslovic recorded the team’s only goal and looked quite threatening from an offensive perspective, including some pretty setups to Matthew Savoie.
Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch seemed to view Roslovic’s performance in the same light that I did and appears to have moved the red-hot winger back onto the top line alongside McDavid and Savoie.
Roslovic has recorded 14 points over the last 12 games and should have a great chance of remaining productive tonight based on his expected usage on the team’s top line and top power-play unit.
If you really wanted to get spicy, you could add in legs on McDavid to record two points as well as Savoie to record one point, but Roslovic to get one point is my favourite specific prop involving the Oilers’ top line.
Leg 3 – Connor McMichael to Record a Point (+105 odds as a straight bet)
As I outlined in today’s player prop piece, backing McMichael to record a point at +105 is one of my favourite plays from Wednesday’s four-game slate, and it works well given our previous two legs, as the Capitals will likely need some offence to hang around with the high-powered Oilers and get this game to overtime for us.
In two games since being promoted to the top line alongside Ovechkin and Dylan Strome, McMichael has recorded three points and seven shots on goal. His current role offers him a drastically improved chance of production for several reasons. Obviously Strome and Ovechkin are highly productive skaters, but McMichael is also playing more minutes and getting significantly more offensive zone starts than he was earlier on in the season.
McMichael has had a disappointing start to the season, tallying just seven points in 19 games. The Capitals organization, which has drafted exceptionally well in recent years, was high on McMichael in selecting him 25th overall in 2019. He showed why last season in netting 57 points in 82 games, and it appeared likely that the talented young forward would build on that mark this year as he enters his true prime at age 24.
The Oilers have been fairly shaky defensively this season, having allowed 3.48 goals against per game. They have allowed 3.63 xGA/60 over the last 10 games, and it appears that their revamped lineup and the loss of defensive assistant coach Paul Coffey have led to a significant dropoff in defensive form relative to last season.
Adding in legs involving Strome and Ovechkin for an even higher price could be logical, but like Roslovic, the price for McMichael to record at least one point is the one that appears to hold the most value as a standalone play.