As Spain prepares to face Turkey on November 18, 2025, at Estadio La Cartuja in Seville, the stakes couldn’t be higher in this crucial UEFA World Cup qualifying match. Spain, sitting comfortably atop Group E with a perfect 5-0 record and an impressive +19 goal differential, is poised to secure direct qualification to the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Turkey, just behind in second place with a 4-0-1 record, remains determined to keep their qualification hopes alive and will look to challenge Spain fiercely on their home turf.
Our best bet for Tuesday’s Spain vs. Turkey soccer match is Spain -1.75 on the Asian Handicap.
Spain -1.75 Asian Handicap
Spain and England are the only teams that have maintained a perfect defensive record in the Group Stage of the World Cup qualifiers, not conceding a single goal.
Complementing their impenetrable defence, La Roja also excels offensively, leading in shots on target per game and ranking second in goals per game. Given this outstanding performance, Luis de la Fuente’s squad is well-positioned to overcome the handicap against Turkey.
While Turkey still has an opportunity to claim the top spot in the group, achieving this would require an extraordinary win with at least a five-goal margin. Although motivation is high, execution may prove challenging.
In the reverse fixture at the Konya Büyükşehir Belediye Stadium, the hosts failed to be competitive. The Crescent stars took 11 shots and generated only 0.24 xG (expected goals).
Although a win was anticipated, the resounding 6-0 defeat highlighted the disparity in quality between the two sides. Spain has consistently covered the handicap in their five matches to date, and we believe they will maintain their exceptional form, even with the top spot in the group practically assured.
Following their flawless performance in Turkey, we anticipate a similar display from Spain on home soil. Our internal prediction model supports this outlook, projecting Spain to generate 3.29 expected goals, comfortably covering the handicap against Turkey, which is expected to reach only 0.59 xG.
Defensively, Turkey ranks near the bottom, conceding an average of 2.0 goals per match, placing them 37th out of 54 teams in this category. Their defensive frailties will show even more against a team like Spain.
Spain vs. Turkey match context
Spain’s flawless qualifying campaign, featuring five consecutive victories, 19 goals, and no goals conceded, confirmed its status as favourite for next summer’s World Cup.
Last week, Luis de la Fuente’s side achieved a commanding 4-0 triumph over Georgia and extended its unbeaten run to 30 competitive matches.
Mikel Oyarzabal, once again, stepped up with La Roja, scoring a brace, and now has 21 goals in 50 appearances with the national side.
Vincenzo Montella’s Turkey clinched a crucial 2-0 win against Bulgaria, ensuring a top-two finish and a playoff berth.
Although a seven-goal margin victory seems unlikely, Turkey aims to be the first team to score against the Euro 2024 champions in these qualifiers.
The Spain vs Turkey odds heavily favour the hosts, with an 80% probability of victory. The reverse fixture earlier concluded in a resounding 6-0 win for Spain, and we could see more of the same in Seville.
Our Spain vs Turkey predictions suggest the hosts will confidently secure their World Cup ticket on Tuesday night.
Spain vs. Turkey odds analysis
The Spain vs Turkey odds heavily favour the hosts. The home win at -455 implies an 82% likelihood of a home victory.
The Spaniards have won all five matches in World Cup qualification without conceding a goal. If they can win to nil once again versus Turkey, Spain will match England’s feat of winning every game (8/8) without conceding.
Spain’s -1.0 Asian handicap in Turkey was covered comfortably by the Spanish only two months ago. With the bookmakers keen on avoiding another pricing mishap, Spain has received a -2.0 Asian handicap to overcome.
The Asian goal line is set at over/under 3.25 goals. Four goals are required for any ‘overs’ backers on this line, whilst three goals or fewer returns profits on any ‘unders’ selections.
Eighteen Spanish players have been priced shorter than Turkey’s most favoured to score at any time in the match. The goalscorer market, heavily expecting a flurry of home goalscorers, has Borja Inglesias, Mikel Oyarzabal, and Samuel Aghehowa as the three players priced at odds-on to score at any time in the Spain vs Turkey odds.