In this article, I’ll outline the most noteworthy odds, news, and betting notes from the marquee matchups from Thursday’s 10-game NHL slate, and I’ll also offer up my best bet.
Best bet – Golden Knights puck line -1.5: +140
Golden Knights puck line -1.5 vs. Islanders
We hit our best bet from Wednesday’s slate breakdown, backing the Utah Mammoth to cover the puck line at +135, and in a very similar spot, I’m high on a price of +140 to back the Vegas Golden Knights winning somewhat comfortably Thursday evening.
The Knights enter this matchup well rested, having been off since Monday’s home game versus the Florida Panthers, and are the only team in the NHL that has played fewer than 16 games. They have lost three consecutive matchups, and with that in mind as well as the scheduling spot, it seems logical to expect a sharp and urgent effort from a Cup-contending Knights side Thursday evening.
At 7-4-4, the Knights have been slightly less dominant than expected this season, but from a broader perspective, still appear to be worthy betting favourites to win the Pacific Division. Mitch Marner and Jack Eichel have shown strong chemistry early on, combining for 41 points in the first 15 games while offering a dominant level of play defensively.
The Knights’ offensive depth is somewhat of a concern relative to other full-fledged contenders with captain Mark Stone sidelined once again, but they still have better offensive depth than the Islanders on paper and a superior blue line.
With Adin Hill sidelined, the Golden Knights’ goaltending has been a concern, but it’s third-stringer Carl Lindbom, in particular, that has really struggled, while Akira Schmid has offered a more break-even level of play. Schmid is expected to start tonight’s game and holds a -0.1 GSAx rating and .901 save percentage in eight appearances this season.
Though the Islanders hold a solid record of 5-3-2 over the last 10 games, they have done so while controlling little of the overall run of play. In those 10 matchups, the Islanders hold an expected goal share of just 47.37%.
Looking away from the Islanders’ underlying results, there are some clear flaws among the roster, and I’m not sold that they will continue to outperform expectations moving forward. This feels like a good spot to buy on a Knights side that appears to be quite well-rounded, playing on home ice where they have historically held a significant edge.
Los Angeles Kings @ Toronto Maple Leafs
| Kings moneyline odds | -140 |
| Maple Leafs moneyline odds | +120 |
| Game total | Over 6 goals (-105), Under 6 (-115) |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
- The Maple Leafs opened at -115 but have moved all the way to a price of +140 at the time of writing. The greatest reasons for the movement are that it has been confirmed that Auston Matthews will miss this game, while Dennis Hildeby has been confirmed as Toronto’s starting goaltender.
- Though Matthews’ offensive production has been disappointing (14 points in 17 games), the Leafs have outscored opponents 16-6 with Matthews on the ice this season.
- Toronto’s defensive play has been downright awful this season, as the defensive core has struggled mightily to drive play in the right direction while also not doing an overly strong job of defending in their own zone.
- The Leafs have allowed 3.61 xGA/60 this season.
- Max Domi will centre the second line due to Matthews’ injury. Domi has been ineffective this season and should certainly be desperate to step up his game in this matchup.
- The Kings are 6-2-2 throughout their last 10 games, and have started their current six-game road trip 2-0-0.
Anaheim Ducks @ Detroit Red Wings
| Ducks moneyline odds | +125 |
| Red Wings moneyline odds | -150 |
| Game total | Over 6.5 goals (-115), Under 6.5 (-105) |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
- This will be the second and final meeting of the season between these inter-conference sides. The Ducks won the previous matchup, 5-2, on October 31st.
- John Gibson will get a second chance to earn a win over his former side. Gibson allowed four goals on 31 shots in the previous matchup and holds an .882 save percentage and 3.15 GAA this season.
- The Ducks have not yet confirmed that Lukas Dostal will start in goal in this matchup. The line movement ahead of this game makes me wonder if oddsmakers have reason to believe Petr Mrazek is starting, but at the time of writing, I’ve had a hard time confirming that thought.
Boston Bruins @ Ottawa Senators
| Bruins moneyline odds | +135 |
| Senators moneyline odds | -160 |
| Game total | Over 6 goals (-110), Under 6 (-110) |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
- Though I was far from the only one thinking it, believing the Bruins would be one of the NHL’s worst offensive teams has been one of my worst preseason takes thus far. After their 5-3 win over the Maple Leafs Tuesday night, the Bruins have averaged 3.39 goals scored per game this season (sixth best).
- Coupling Boston’s preseason expectations with its underlying offensive results, it does seem likely to slow down offensively in the near future. Boston ranks 22nd in xGF/60, and holds the sixth-highest shooting percentage in the NHL.
- Rare to see a team in the midst of a seven-game winning streak priced at +135 versus only a slightly better than average opponent, which can be viewed as a clear indicator that oddsmakers do not believe in Boston’s process leading to such strong results long-term.
- These teams met in Boston last Thursday, and the Bruins managed a 3-2 win in a fairly evenly contested game.
- Thomas Chabot was injured in Tuesday’s matchup versus the Dallas Stars, and will join Senators captain Brady Tkachuk on the sidelines in this matchup.
- Centres Casey Mittelstadt and Elias Lindholm will miss this matchup for the Bruins, forcing Marat Khusnutdinov into the role of top-line centre.
- Both sides will be starting their second-string goaltenders, as Joonas Korpisalo will start in goal for Boston (.885 SV %, 3.24 GAA), while Leevi Merilainen will start for Ottawa (.871 SV %, 3.71 GAA).
Dallas Stars @ Montreal Canadiens
| Stars moneyline odds | +100 |
| Canadiens moneyline odds | -120 |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-125), Under 5.5 (+105) |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
- Sharper bettors have seemingly been surprisingly low on the Stars recently, as they closed at +100 in Tuesday’s matchup versus the Senators after opening at -115, and are currently underdogs in this matchup after opening at -120.
- While I’m not going to say that recommending the Stars to win Tuesday’s matchup was my best pick ever, it’s not as though they were outplayed in that matchup either.
- Considering the Stars are 7-1-2 in the last 10 and now have Roope Hintz back in the lineup and in great form, it’s surprising to me the way the market seems to be viewing a team that was a Cup contender entering the season.
- The Canadiens have the offensive firepower to make the most of their opportunities, but their 46.74% expected goal share over the last 10 games is concerning.
- Jakub Dobes will start in goal for the Canadiens in this matchup and has outplayed Samuel Montembeault quite significantly this season. In many other years his .920 save percentage and 2.25 GAA would likely put him in the Calder conversation, but due to the brilliance of teammate Ivan Demidov and Matthew Schaefer, Dobes is priced at +2000 to win the Calder despite being the third favourite.
Washington Capitals @ Florida Panthers
| Capitals moneyline odds | +100 |
| Panthers moneyline odds | -120 |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-115), Under 5.5 (-105) |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
- As those who follow me in the Action Network App will have seen, I believed the Capitals were a good bet to win this game at their opening prices in the +120 range. They have now ticked down to +100, which is likely a combination of where sharp money came in during the discovery phase and the fact that Daniil Tarasov has been confirmed as the Panthers’ starting goaltender.
- Personally, I’d prefer backing the Capitals at +120 with Sergei Bobrovsky starting than to back them at +100 with Tarasov starting. Obviously, you have to put some weight on their historic results and expected levels of play, but Tarasov holds a +1.9 GSAx rating this season, while Bobrovsky holds a -0.9 GSAx and higher GAA.
- This will be the Panthers’ first home game since completing a four-game Western road trip with a win over the Vegas Golden Knights Monday evening.
- The Capitals rank fifth in the NHL with an expected goal share of 55.8% over the last 10 games, while in the same span, the Panthers rank second.
- Washington’s top line of Dylan Strome, Alex Ovechkin, and Anthony Beauvillier was finally rewarded with some production in Tuesday’s win over the Carolina Hurricanes, as the three combined for four points.
- From an analytical perspective, the Caps’ top trio has been one of the best lines in the NHL, but they have struggled mightily to capitalize on scoring chances. Among offensive trios that have spent at least 70 minutes together at even strength, Ovechkin-Strome-Beavillier ranks first in the NHL by a wide margin with a 4.87 xGF/60 rating.
Edmonton Oilers @ Columbus Blue Jackets
| Oilers moneyline odds | -105 |
| Blue Jackets moneyline odds | -115 |
| Game total | Over 6.5 goals (-110), Under 6.5 (-110) |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. ET |
- The Oilers will likely start Calvin Pickard (.836 SV %, 4.00 GAA) in goal for this matchup, after Stuart Skinner played the first leg of this back-to-back Wednesday in Philadelphia.
- Edmonton played a much sharper defensive game last night in Philadelphia than we have typically seen this season, though Philadelphia’s offensive attack has looked relatively poor this season.
- Adam Fantilli has put up five points over the last three games, benefitting from a promotion to the top line alongside Kirill Marchenko and Dmitri Voronkov.
- Oilers rookie Matt Savoie had his best game of the season Wednesday, recording two assists in 16:05 of ice time. He skated on the top line alongside Connor McDavid and Andrew Mangiapane, and given the result of the game, it would make sense to see Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch finally opt for some lineup continuity by keeping the trio together.
- These sides met in Edmonton on Monday evening, and the Oilers were able to steal a 5-4 win after a lucky game-tying goal with 58 seconds left to play.
San Jose Sharks @ Calgary Flames
| Sharks moneyline odds | +135 |
| Flames moneyline odds | -160 |
| Game total | Over 6 goals (-110), Under 6 (-110) |
| Time | 9 p.m. ET |
- The Flames are the current betting favourites to finish last in the NHL, having played to a record of 3-6-1 over the last 10 games, including three straight losses versus teams currently favoured to miss the playoffs.
- Dustin Wolf has been confirmed as the Flames’ starting goaltender. Though Wolf’s .893 save percentage and 3.24 GAA are concerning, most respected Flames analysts would not agree that he’s been one of the team’s more noteworthy concerns.
- The Sharks are 7-2-1 in their last 10 games and will jump back into a wild card spot with a win in this matchup.
Winnipeg Jets @ Seattle Kraken
| Jets moneyline odds | -140 |
| Kraken moneyline odds | +120 |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-120), Under 5.5 (+100) |
| Time | 10 p.m. ET |
- The second meeting of the season between these sides. The Kraken pulled off a surprising 3-0 upset in Winnipeg on October 23rd.
- The Jets are 5-5-0 over their last 10 games, and hold a goal differential of zero in that span. Their underlying results this season have been quite concerning, even for a team with the great equalizer in Connor Hellebuyck playing in goal, and the actual results have started to tail off as many observers expected.
- While last year’s Presidents’ Trophy winners have not looked quite as formidable, the Kraken have been heavily outplayed on average over the last 10 games, playing to an expected goal share of 44.79%.
- The Kraken continue to rely heavily on centre Chandler Stephenson to handle tough usage versus opposing top units. Stephenson’s line has been faring horribly defensively. Based on what we have seen so far head coach Lane Lambert may try to hard-match Stephenson’s line versus the Jets’ elite top line of Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor and Gabriel Vilardi on home ice in this matchup.