In this article I’ll break down my two best bets from Saturday’s monster 13-game NHL slate based on Friday’s opening prices at online sportsbooks, and touch on some games notes from the matchups involving Canadian teams.
Best NHL bets for Nov. 8
Utah Mammoth moneyline: +100
Mammoth moneyline vs. Canadiens
The Montreal Canadiens rank third in the NHL with a record of 9-3-2, and have been quite impressive throughout the first 14 games of the season. Still, I’m not sold that they deserve to be favoured over the Mammoth on Saturday, particularly as Utah holds a rest advantage and Samuel Montembeault is likely to start in goal for the Canadiens.
You can only beat who’s in front of you, but the Canadiens have played the third-easiest schedule in the NHL this season. They have zero wins over any opponents that are considered among the 14 most likely teams to win the Stanley Cup, and have only beaten one team that entered the year as a betting favourite to make the playoffs this season (Ottawa Senators). Analytics are from everything, but the Canadiens 16th-ranked expected goal share is certainly not an overly strong indicator given their slate of opponents.
Utah, meanwhile, ranks eighth in expected goal share, and has played solid defensively, while what has become a stacked top six has carried the team to strong offensive results. Karel Vejmelka has been rock-solid in goal, playing to a +3.3 GSAx and .894 save percentage in 10 appearances.
Montembeault has been much shakier than Vejmelka, playing to a -7.0 GSAx rating and .855 save percentage in seven games. It’s not a guarantee that Montembeault will start this matchup, but if he does, the Mammoth certainly have a goaltending edge.
Whether the Mammoth have a goaltending edge or not, there is a pretty strong case that suggests they have played at a higher level despite their slightly lesser record. They held higher expectations entering the year, hold stronger underlying numbers versus a tougher slate of opponents, and a slightly superior goal differential.
I’m guessing by game-time this game is a pick’em or the Mammoth may even be slight favourites, but at anything better than -110 I would bet the Mammoth to win.
Colorado Avalanche moneyline: -110
Avalanche moneyline vs. Oilers
Though dunking on the Edmonton Oilers makes for appealing content in the majority of NHL markets, I’m not really worried about their 6-5-4 start. They have started slowly in each of the past two seasons, and then gradually picked up steam before eventual losses in the Stanley Cup Final.
While I’m not overly concerned about Edmonton’s start, it is still quite hard to see how it deserves to be priced evenly with an Avalanche team that looks to be the best in the NHL right now.
The Avalanche have played the second-toughest schedule in the NHL, but have still lost just once in regulation (8-1-5). Their +13 goal differential ranks tied for first in the NHL, and they hold the highest expected goal share in the league by a wide margin.
Just like the Oilers, the Avalanche have some of the game’s very best skaters in Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, both of whom are capable of stealing games on their own, but they have been a drastically superior side defensively.
The Avs have allowed only 2.50 xGA/60 this season. The Florida Panthers are the next closest team, and have still allowed 2.96 xGA/60. The gap between the Avs (first) and the Panthers (second) is still wider than the gap between the fourth and 20th-ranked teams.
While the Oilers’ play should start to improve in the near future, it’s hard to pass up backing the NHL’s most impressive team in the early going in a pick’em.
Ottawa Senators vs Philadelphia Flyers
| Senators moneyline odds | -115 |
| Flyers moneyline odds | -105 |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-130), Under 5.5 goals (+110) |
| Time | 1 p.m. ET |
- The Flyers ranked 12th in expected goal share across even strength across all disciplines last season. Their goaltenders combined for the lowest save percentage in the league, and as their most passionate fans would regularly detail, the team would have been competitive with respectable goaltending.
- As Dan Vladar has played to a +6.1 GSAx rating and .917 save percentage in nine appearances, the Flyers have surprised in posting a record of 8-5-1.
- Flyers head coach Rick Tocchet still deserves some credit as well, as the team has allowed only 3.15 xGA/60 this season, which is the eighth-best mark in the NHL.
- The Senators’ defensive results are even better, as they have allowed only 2.98 xGA/60.
- Manual viewings of Linus Ullmark’s play this season would tell you he’s not been very good, and the underlying metrics are arguably even worse than the ‘eye-test’. Ullmark holds a -8.2 GSAx rating in 12 appearances, and enters this matchup off of a poor performance versus the Boston Bruins on Thursday.
Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
| Bruins moneyline odds | +155 |
| Maple Leafs moneyline odds | -185 |
| Game total | Over 6.5 goals (+100), Under 6.5 (-120) |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
- The first matchup of the season between these bitter rivals. The Leafs played to a record of 2-1-1 versus the Bruins in the 2024-25 season.
- 10 of the last 12 Leafs’ games have gone over the betting total. Oddsmakers are guarding against that trend with a high total of 6.5.
- Jeremy Swayman rested on Thursday versus the Senators, and will presumably start in this matchup. Swayman holds a save percentage of just .897, but a +3.5 GSAx rating, which tells us he has faced a very tough workload in his nine appearances.
- Head coach Craig Berube strayed away from his newly formed top line of Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Matthew Knies at times during their most recent game versus the Mammoth, but the trio did remain together at Friday’s practice.
Columbus Blue Jackets vs. Vancouver Canucks
| Blue Jackets moneyline odds | -105 |
| Canucks moneyline odds | -115 |
| Game total | Over 6 goals (-110), Under 6 (-110) |
| Time | 10 p.m. ET |
- Top-scorer Conor Garland returned to the Canucks’ lineup on Wednesday, while captain Quinn Hughes returned on Monday. As a result, their injury list is much less horrific than it was, but they are still without numerous skaters that were expected to be everyday players this season including Filip Chytil, Teddy Blueger, Nils Hoglander, and Jonathan Lekkerimaki.
- The Blue Jackets are 0-2 to start their five-game road trip, which will wrap up with a three-in-four spot Tuesday in Seattle. They are 4-3-0 on the road so far this season.
- Elvis Merzlikins is expected to start in goal based on the Blue Jackets’ goaltending rotation this season. He holds a .917 save percentage and 2.98 GAA in six starts this season.