UEFA Champions League soccer will continue on Wednesday with Matchday 4 of the group stage, featuring Manchester City vs. Borussia Dortmund.
Our best bet for this Champions League clash is Manchester City to win and both teams to score.
Manchester City vs. Borussia Dortmund best bet
Man City to win and both teams to score
Manchester City looks like a much-improved team compared to last season. Pep Guardiola’s side has been more dangerous going forward, mainly due to the exploits of Erling Haaland, and will be confident of outscoring the opponent here. Therefore, we are backing a home win and both teams to score in our Manchester City vs. Dortmund predictions.
The Citizens come into this game on the back of an impressive 3-1 home win over Bournemouth. Pep’s team generated an xG (expected goals ) of 2.22, but the visitors were able to cause problems on the break and from set pieces. City has now failed to keep a clean sheet in its last three competitive matches.
Since losing its first home game of the campaign against Tottenham, City has won its five competitive matches at the Etihad. So far this season, Guardiola’s side has scored an average of 2.5 goals per game at home, 1.83 more than its opponents. However, Dortmund’s attack will be one of the most dangerous that City has faced.
BVB is averaging 2.07 goals per competitive game this season. Niko Kovac has transformed Dortmund, and his team continues to impress in the Champions League. It has lost just one of its eight matches in this competition since the managerial change, averaging 2.33 goals per game. BVB has scored 12 goals across three league phase matches this season, and certainly has the quality to find the net at the Etihad.
City has hosted Dortmund twice since the start of the decade, winning 2-1 on both occasions. That scoreline would see this selection win.
Manchester City vs. Borussia Dortmund odds analysis
The Manchester City vs. Dortmund odds side with the Premier League hosts as the Bundesliga outfit travels to England. A -222 home win price suggests an implied probability of 69%.
Manchester City will kick off with a -1.25 Asian handicap. This line requires the hosts to win by two goals to return profits to pro-City bettors. If Pep’s side can only secure a victory by a margin of one goal, the Dortmund side of the handicap (+1.25) wins.
In the battle between Erling Haaland’s former and current teams, it’ll likely be the Norwegian who decides the game. Haaland could become the first player to score in five consecutive Champions League fixtures for three different clubs with a goal against Dortmund.
The -189 price on Haaland to score at any time is prohibitive. However, there are options. For example, opting for ‘first team goalscorer’ is a clever way to drag the odds up to an odds-against price.
Haaland has scored four of Manchester City’s six goals in the Champions League this season. The 13 Premier League goals in ten matches account for 72% of the team’s goals in the competition; no other City player has scored more than one goal in the Premier League or Champions League this campaign.
An Asian goal line of 3.25 requires four goals for any over bettors to walk away from the Etihad in profit. Our internal data projection model, BETSiE, forecasts a match goal output of 3.31.