UFC 303 Odds, Predictions: Alex Pereira Slightly Favoured to Retain UFC Light Heavyweight Title

Opponents Alex Pereira of Brazil and Jiri Prochazka of the Czech Republic face off during the UFC 303 press conference at T-Mobile Arena on June 27, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada

UFC 303 was supposed to mark Conor McGregor’s much-anticipated return to the Octagon, with the Notorious originally scheduled to take part in his first fight in nearly three years against Michael Chandler. But just two weeks ago, the Irishman revealed he was withdrawing from UFC 303 after sustaining a broken toe while training.

McGregor will be missed at UFC 303, which will be held on Saturday, June 29 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. But the show must go on, and the rest of the main card is still incredibly exciting. The highlight is a UFC Light Heavyweight title fight between the reigning champion Alex Pereira and former champion Jiří Procházka, in a rematch of the Pereira/Procházka fight at UFC 295 in November 2023, which Pereira won by TKO in the second round.

Alex Pereira to win fight vs. Jiří Procházka


Take a look at our predictions for UFC 303 below while checking out the most-profitable odds available for the bouts on the UFC 303 main card from the top UFC Betting Sites.

Ian Machado Garry vs. Michael Page

Best odds on Garry to win fight: -161 @ Pinnacle
Best odds on Page to win fight: +130 @ bet365

It isn’t often that you see two UFC fighters separated by more than a decade in age stepping into the Octagon together, but that’s what will happen when Ian Machado Garry and Michael Page do battle at UFC 303. Garry is 26 and participating in just his seventh UFC fight, while Page is 37 and looking to take the legacy he built in Bellator MMA over the last decade and bring it into the UFC after signing with the organization at the end of 2023.

Despite the obvious age difference between these two fighters, they’re more evenly matched than many people might realize, which would explain why the much younger Garry is only a slight favourite over Page. Page is considered the better attacker and could keep Garry on his heels all night long, while Garry is a great defensive fighter and could wear Page down and use his aggressiveness against him.

There is also a chance — a good chance actually — that Garry and Page could both hang back and spend the bulk of this fight trying to feel each other out before providing some fireworks in the later rounds. That would likely bode well for Garry, who has won more than half of his UFC fights by decision so far. We would expect that trend to continue, though we wouldn’t be shocked if Page pulled off the slight upset here by using his experience to catch Garry off-guard at some point and send him to the ground.

Prediction: Garry via decision (+175 @ Betway)

Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Macy Chiasson

Best odds on Silva to win fight: -110 @ Betway
Best odds on Chiasson to win fight: -118 @ 888sport

Mayra Bueno Silva is currently ranked third overall in the UFC women’s bantamweight rankings, but she didn’t look very good in her last fight, a loss to Raquel Pennington at UFC 297 in January. Macy Chiasson, meanwhile, sits in the seventh slot in the UFC women’s bantamweight rankings and looked impressive in a win over Pannie Kianzad at UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura in March. Chiasson also has a four-inch height advantage over Silva and a nearly six-inch reach advantage. So why then isn’t Chiasson a bigger favourite in this fight?

It’s anyone’s guess. But either way, this is probably the least-anticipated matchup on the UFC 303 main card. Neither of these fighters is known for throwing knockout punches, so this matchup will likely feature its fair share of sparring with the occasional takedown thrown into the mix to keep things interesting.

Chiasson should have a slight edge over Silva, but it’s worth noting that Silva has been the more active of the two fighters over the last couple of years. Chiasson was taking part in her first fight in about a year and a half when she beat Kianzad earlier this year, while Silva earned not one, but two Performance of the Night awards for performances she put forward at UFC events in 2023. We’ll pick Silva to surprise some people by picking up a victory as a small betting underdog in this fight, though it might not be pretty.

Prediction: Silva via decision (+280 @ bet365)

Anthony Smith vs. Roman Dolidze

Best odds on Smith to win fight: +126 @ Pinnacle
Best odds on Dolidze to win fight: -138 @ bet365

Anthony Smith got a little bit of a raw deal here. He was initially scheduled to fight Carlos Ulberg at UFC 303 before he was forced to pull out for undisclosed reasons. UFC had to decide what to do with Smith since he was left without an opponent, and they filled the gap at the last minute with Roman Dolidze, who is considered a more well-rounded fighter than Ulberg.

Despite the sudden change, Smith may have been happy to hear he would be fighting Dolidze instead of Ulberg. Dolidze doesn’t pack as much power into his punches as Ulberg, and that alone could help Smith record a slight upset over Dolidze. But there is a reason why Dolidze is the favoured fighter in this matchup, and it has everything to do with the athleticism that he’ll bring into the Octagon with him. It has most fight fans feeling as though he should be able to handle whatever the savvy Smith throws at him.

One thing we should point out, though, is that Dolidze will be moving up from the UFC Middleweight division to the Light Heavyweight division for this fight, and that could have an impact on his ability to take down Smith. Still, we wouldn’t be surprised to see Smith come out a step slower than usual since he spent so much time preparing for a different fighter when getting ready for UFC 303. It could lead to him having a long night against Dolidze.

Prediction: Dolidze via decision (+250 @ Sports Interaction)

Dolidze to win via decision


Brian Ortega vs. Diego Lopes

Best odds on Ortega to win fight: +110 @ 888sport
Best odds on Lopes to win fight: -140 @ Sports Interaction

Brian Ortega put on quite the show during his last fight at UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 when he overcame some early struggles to beat Yair Rodríguez via submission in the third round. But Rodríguez got the best of Ortega for most of that fight and may have exposed some weaknesses in his game. Diego Lopes has recorded three straight first-round victories — two via knockout and one via submission — and will look to expose those weaknesses as the slight betting favourite.

While Lopes is perfectly capable of winning this UFC 303 fight on the ground, we anticipate that he’ll try to stay on his feet and trade punches with Ortega, who didn’t respond well when Rodríguez took this approach. If Lopes can land even just a few of these punches, he might be able to record yet another first-round victory and keep his streak going.

We imagine Ortega learned from some of the mistakes he made during his fight against Rodríguez, though, and he’ll likely push to take Lopes to the ground early and often if he can. From there, it’ll be a battle of wits as both of these guys can make the other tap out if this match ends up taking place primarily on the mat. It’s a battle we would expect Lopes to win, although it wouldn’t be too surprising to see Ortega ride the wave of momentum he created with his hard-fought victory over Rodríguez.

Prediction: Lopes via submission (+548 @ Pinnacle)

Alex Pereira vs. Jiří Procházka

Best odds on Pereira to win fight: -131 @ Pinnacle
Best odds on Procházka to win fight: +125 @ bet365

UFC fans obviously won’t get to see Conor McGregor step back into the Octagon at UFC 303, but they’ll still be treated to what should be an epic headliner between Alex Pereira and Jiří Procházka. These two fighters meet again following a great fight back at UFC 295, and with Pereira’s UFC Light Heavyweight title on the line, they should both be even more motivated to put forth their best efforts on Saturday night.

Just like in the lead-up to their first fight, the odds for this matchup between Pereira and Procházka are close, and they might get even closer in the hours leading up to the fight. Pereira already has a reputation as being one of the best strikers in UFC history, and Prochazka also has solid striking abilities with wrestling and grappling skills to match. Prochazka is also the former UFC Light Heavyweight champion, so he won’t need any extra motivation once it’s time to square up with Pereira.

We’re going to go out on a limb here, though, and predict this will be the shortest fight at UFC 303. While many of the other fights on the main card are just as evenly matched as this one is, this is one of the few fights that has the potential to end at a moment’s notice thanks to the power-packed punches both of these fighters throw. We’re also going to predict that Pereira will help turn himself into an even bigger household name than he already is by catching Prochazka with a shot that knocks him to the ground. Look for Pereira to retain his title and thank McGregor for the opportunity to steal his spotlight.

Prediction: Pereira via KO (-105 @ bet365)