This offseason has been dragging on, especially considering the pandemic-shortened summers of the last three years. For Edmonton Oilers players and their passionate fan base, the excitement for the upcoming 2023-24 NHL regular season is palpable.
Their collective ambition? Nothing short of hoisting the Stanley Cup. After a disappointing second-round exit in 2023, the Oilers are more determined than ever to pursue their championship aspirations, and rightfully so. That should be the expectation, with where the core players are at in their careers.
The team is spending up to the salary cap, as they should be. However, as a result, general manager Ken Holland made only a few minor tweaks to the roster this offseason, most notably the addition of forward Connor Brown, but that’s perfectly fine because the Oilers already possess all the essential ingredients of a champion.
2023/24 Season Forecast
Everyone loves prognostications before the start of each season, but I do things a little differently than most. I run a simulation, tens of thousands of times, to generate projected points for all 32 NHL teams based on factors like team strength, scheduling, and historical trends, to estimate how often teams will hit certain milestones.
The graphic below showcases the predicted point (probability) distribution for the Edmonton Oilers’ upcoming season as a range of outcomes. It also provides insights into their chances of winning the Pacific Division, making the playoffs, and claiming the Stanley Cup.
The outlook for Edmonton’s regular season is optimistic, to say the least, as few teams can measure up to its elite offensive talent. The Oilers aren’t all flash, though. Sure, they’ve got the best power play in NHL history, and their offensive prowess garners a lot of attention, but the Oilers made substantial improvements on defence, which should extend into the upcoming season.
In the latter part of the 2022-23 season, Edmonton showcased itself as the third-strongest team in terms of expected goals against per 60 minutes, as reported by Evolving Hockey, and that’s as good a reason as any to be excited about the Oilers’ prospects this season.
Mattias Ekholm should continue to provide stability on the back end, and the hype surrounding Evan Bouchard, the team’s best homegrown defenceman, is warranted. Bouchard made the most of the extra ice time he received after his promotion and stepped up big time in the playoffs, scoring four goals and 13 assists in 12 games. Bouchard played well over 20 minutes per game in the postseason and spent as much time on the power play as Connor McDavid.
While some may express doubts due to their goaltending situation, it’s important to note that their offence is expected to shine on most nights. This stems from the unique advantage of having not one but two players with the potential to score 50, if not 60 goals. McDavid has already achieved this feat, and while I may not be making a bold prediction about Leon Draisaitl surpassing his career high in goals, I wouldn’t count him out either. Additionally, the offensive prowess of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and Evander Kane could yield impressive 30-goal seasons for each of them, with some variation.
|To Win Stanley Cup||+1000|
|To Win Western Conference||+375|
|To Win Pacific Division||+200|
|To Win Presidents’ Trophy||+950|
|Season Point Total||106.5, Over (-115) / Under (-115)|
How Many Points Will The Edmonton Oilers Score In The Regular Season?
With an average forecast of 110.1 points, the Oilers are expected to finish the season with 107 points or more approximately 67% of the time, which is good for fans betting on Edmonton to surpass its regular-season total.
However, 107 points is a big number, and some bettors may be hesitant to place a futures bet at -115 odds, regardless of the perceived value. In that case, I recommend exploring alternative options that offer a potentially more low-risk, high-reward approach to getting in on the action.
Edmonton Oilers Regular Season Points OVER 106.5
To Win The Pacific Division (+200)
The Pacific Division has been seen as the NHL’s weakest division in recent years, and while teams like the San Jose Sharks and Anaheim Ducks bring the average down, there are some strong clubs in the group, including the Stanley Cup champions. Vegas won the division in 2022-23, so it might come as a surprise to learn that the Oilers are the favourite (+200) to win it this year, but it shouldn’t.
At +200 odds, the Oilers’ chances of winning the Pacific Division are thought to be somewhere around 33%, but my projection for their season has them capturing the crown closer to 47% of the time. Of course, the payout isn’t going to be anywhere as big as it would be for a winning bet on the Oilers to win the Presidents’ Trophy, and this bet might not provide enough incentive for fans to lay their money down for an entire season. Use our Sports Betting Calculator to estimate potential winnings
Edmonton Oilers to win Pacific Division
To Win The Presidents’ Trophy (+950)
Betting on the Oilers to win the Presidents’ Trophy at +950 is also a value bet based on my assessment of the odds, which suggests the Oilers’ odds would be more appropriately priced at around +500. It’s more of a longshot, as there are at least a handful of teams that have a realistic shot at finishing with the most points, but the projection says the Oilers have a much better chance (17.6%) of winning the regular season than the odds imply.
Edmonton Oilers to win Presidents’ Trophy
Stanley Cup or Bust?
The Oilers have the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup according to the forecast, but there are a handful of contenders in the mix, like the Golden Knights, who have just as much reason to believe they’re going to win it all. So, if it is Stanley Cup or bust, the Oilers are setting themselves up for failure because the odds favour the field.
The Oilers can be a decent bet to win the Stanley Cup at the right price, but certainly don’t go ‘bust’ betting on them to win it all. It’s not a great value bet at +1000 given that the odds convert to a 9% implied probability and the projection says Edmonton will win just 10% of the time.
With that in mind, expect to see previews of all seven Canadian NHL teams at Canada Sports Betting in the coming weeks. Additionally, stay tuned for the full 2023-24 NHL projections, where we’ll provide in-depth insights into each team’s forecast for the upcoming season. Don’t miss out on the latest analysis and updates as you gear up for the NHL season.