The Edmonton Oilers find themselves in a tough spot in front of their home crowd on Wednesday night as they look for a big win in the 2024 NHL Western Conference Final. Get the victory, and they’ve got the series all tied up and turned into a best-of-three. Lose, and Canada’s last remaining team is on the brink of elimination. Here’s what you need to know about this game before the puck drops Wednesday
Bet on Stars vs. Oilers GM 4
The moneyline favourites are the Oilers, coming in at -130 and -138 on the top Canadian Sportsbooks.
Stars vs. Oilers Best Odds
| Stars Moneyline Odds | +120 @ Proline+ |
| Oilers Moneyline Odds | -130 @ TonyBet |
| Puckline odds | Oilers -1.5 (+197) @ Pinnacle Stars +1.5 (-213) @ Proline+ |
| Series odds | Oilers +210, Stars -260 @ bet365 |
| Total | Over 5.5 goals (-100) @ Bet99 Under 5.5 goals (+110) @ Proline+ |
| Time/Date | May 29, 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Broadcast: CBC, Sportsnet, TVA Sports Stream: Sportsnet+ (How to watch the NHL in Canada?) |
Last Matchup
Shades of Game 1 were found in Monday’s Game 3, as an early Oilers lead was not a lasting one. At first, this looked like it was going to be a McDavid Night, as he set up Zach Hyman’s opening goal two minutes in and added another five minutes later.
But the defining first-line impact was destined to come from the other side. Jason Robertson brought the Stars back into the game early in the second period and tied it up just two and a half minutes later. Wyatt Johnson then finished the script flip a minute after that, giving Dallas the lead with his eighth of the playoffs.
Adam Henrique tied the game with his second goal in as many games at the end of the second, but Robertson came back to complete his hat trick midway through the third. Miro Heiskanen added an empty-netter to seal the game for Dallas.
Betting Dallas Stars (10-6 SU, 7-9 ATS, 6-9 o/u)
As much as so many of us felt that the Stars were an incredibly deep team even without Roope Hintz, Monday showed why the 27-year-old makes them that much better. Back from his injury suffered in Game 5 against Colorado, the centre was reunited with Jason Robertson and Tyler Seguin and the difference was immediate, as the line controlled the pace of play when on the ice together.
No one felt this impact more than Robertson, who had some of the pressure taken off of him and was able to free himself up for his hat trick. Scoring all three goals on just four shots helped as well.
“It’s fairly obvious,” Stars coach Peter DeBoer said of what Hintz’s return brought to the team. “He’s big. He skates. He’s a 200-foot player. He’s one of our best defensive players, one of our best penalty killers, creates offence.”
Seguin pointed to his speed and his ability to create space as separators. Dallas certainly hopes that his return is what they need to pull away from the series’ relative deadlock.
Betting Edmonton Oilers (9-6 SU, 4-11 ATS, 8-7 o/u)
On the other side, there’s an element of frustration and soul-searching happening in Edmonton. After a few quality nights, Stuart Skinner fell flat on Monday, giving up four goals on 21 shots – even leading our friends at Daily Faceoff to ask the Calvin Pickard question once more (they landed on no, at least for now).
A bigger issue for the Oilers than the goaltenders, though, might be the players directly in front of them. While Evan Bouchard has been spectacular across this run and Mattias Ekholm has been great as well, the second and third pairs have often left a lot to be desired, and a lot of the concern has been levied towards their highest-paid blueliner, Darnell Nurse. The $9.25 million AAV obviously puts an extra target on his back, but he’s now now contributing at a point where it would be an issue at almost any pricetag.
Through 15 playoff games, Nurse has just two assists – only one at 5v5 – and the Oilers have been outscored 18-8 while he’s on the ice at 5v5 (21-10 overall). The team has been out-attempted, outshot, and out-chanced routinely with him on the ice, and outside of a few of the depth forwards, the majority of the team has had better control of the play without him than with him.
Kris Knoblauch went for the honey approach when asked about his struggles, though we’ll see if he can shake out of them.
“I think there’s still more for him, I think he can play better.” said the Oilers head coach. “The way he checks and covers the ice – I don’t know anyone in the NHL who is able to get around the ice as quick as he can and close plays off.”
Projected Stars vs. Oilers Lines
| Today’s Dallas Stars Lines | Today’s Edmonton Oilers Lines |
|---|---|
| Forwards Jason Robertson – Roope Hintz – Tyler Seguin Mason Marchment – Matt Duchene – Joe Pavelski Jamie Benn – Wyatt Johnston – Logan Stankoven Ty Dellandrea – Sam Steel – Craig Smith Defence Thomas Harley – Miro Heiskanen Esa Lindell – Chris Tanev Ryan Suter – Alex Petrovic Starting In Goal Jake Oettinger PO: 10-4-2, 2.03 GAA, 0.923 SV% Season: 35-14-4, 2.72 GAA, 0.905 SV% | Forwards Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Connor McDavid – Zach Hyman Dylan Holloway – Leon Draisaitl – Evander Kane Warren Foegele – Adam Henrique – Connor Brown Mattias Janmark – Sam Carrick – Derek Ryan Defence Mattias Ekholm – Evan Bouchard Darnell Nurse – Vincent Desharnais Brett Kulak – Cody Ceci Starting In Goal Stuart Skinner PO: 8-4-1, 2.76 GAA, 0.885 SV% Season: 36-16-5, 2.62 GAA, 0.905 SV% |
Both teams are currently projected to run lineups similar to Game 3. Dallas’ forward group received a significant shakeup following the return of Roope Hintz to the lineup.
Roope Hintz to score a point
Stars vs. Oilers Injury Concerns
Both teams are effectively healthy, with Hintz back for Dallas and Henrique back for Edmonton. The only remaining piece lies with the Stars, as Jani Hakaanpaa is still day-to-day with an injury suffered in March.
NHL Betting Trends
- The two teams have split their last 10 games against each other, going back to April 2022. The puckline has also been split 5-5, while the total goals line has slightly leaned towards the over (6-4).
- The Oilers are 5-5 in their last 10 games, with a 2-8 record against the puckline. Across the total goals line, they’ve had four overs, five unders, and a push.
- The Stars are 7-3 in their own last 10, with a 6-4 record against the puckline and a total goals split of four overs and six unders.
NHL Player Prop Trends
- Jason Roberton’s stellar Game 3 gives him the most points on the Stars over their last 10 games, with 11. This includes a team-leading eight assists. Wyatt Johnson, Tyler Seguin, and Miro Heiskanen co-lead the team in goals over that time with five, while Seguin leads the team in shots on goal with 33.
- If you’re into blocked shot props – not my personal cup of tea, but some are into it – Chris Tanev is on fire, with 43 in his last 10 games.
- The Oilers’ offensive numbers are starting to cool down a little but are still pretty gaudy. Leon Draisaitl leads the team with 15 points in their last 10 games, including a team-leading 11 assists. Zach Hyman leads the group in goals (six) and shots on goal (43).
Stars vs. Oilers Predictions
- Look for the Roope Hintz sugar high to continue. He had two assists in his return in Game 3 and I can see him returning to the scoresheet tonight. The best value is on Sports Interaction at +100.
- Zach Hyman has averaged a little over four shots per game in these playoffs, including thirteen through three games in this series. His line sits at its usual 3.5 shots on goal, and the best value on the over is on Betano at -122.
- I’d look to the Oilers on the moneyline tonight, best found at -130 on TonyBet. After a couple of close-call losses, and with the risk of being pushed to the brink with a defeat tonight, I feel they’ll come out hungry tonight.
