If you’re looking for a Blue Jays vs. Nationals prediction, Monday night’s matchup offers plenty of intrigue as Toronto tries to halt its recent slide while Washington continues its surprising push toward the National League playoff race. The Blue Jays hand the ball to veteran Max Scherzer in his return from injury against his former team, while the Nationals counter with left-hander Andrew Alvarez in a matchup that could produce plenty of scoring opportunities. Below, we break down the latest odds, our best bet, key player props, and everything you need to know before first pitch.
Blue Jays vs. Nationals prediction
CJ Abrams over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs: -140 (best odds @ Sports Interaction)
Abrams over 1.5 H+R+RBIs
You won’t find a hotter hitter in baseball than Abrams right now, as the Nationals shortstop is slashing an incredible .577/.593/1.346 with a 1.939 OPS over the last seven days. He’s crushed a whopping six homers and collected 12 RBIs while scoring eight times in that span, giving some serious value to this player prop at -140 odds (58.3% implied probability).
Abrams, who is 2-for-8 (.250 batting average) in his career against Scherzer, has beaten this line in seven straight games and in 15 of his last 20, and at a 60% rate overall on the season. Given Scherzer’s immense struggles this season (see probable starting pitcher section below), you have to like Abrams’ chances of doing some damage early in the game against the veteran right-hander.
As always, look for the most favourable MLB odds at the best MLB betting sites before locking in any wagers on our Blue Jays vs. Nationals prediction.
Blue Jays vs. Nationals odds
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | +110 |
| Nationals moneyline odds | -130 |
| Run line odds | Nationals -1.5 (+145), Blue Jays +1.5 (-170) |
| Game total | Over 10 runs (+105), Under 10 (-125) |
| Date/time | July 27, 6:45 p.m. ET |
Betting the Blue Jays (48-58 SU, 48-58 ATS, 55-50-1 o/u)
The Blue Jays are running out of time to convince their front office to keep the team’s stars on expiring contracts for a potential playoff run. George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Daulton Varsho, Shane Bieber, and Scherzer are just some of the Blue Jays that have trade interest from contending teams, and if Toronto can’t put together a decent stretch of baseball leading up to the Aug. 3 trade deadline, those players could be gone, forcing a retool ahead of next season.
Toronto has been baffled by left-handed pitching this season, slashing just .217/.293/.348 with a .641 OPS against southpaws this season. The team was most recently silenced by left-hander Ranger Suarez on Sunday, managing no runs on four hits over four innings.
Toronto has lost four straight series to the Red Sox, Rays, White Sox, and Padres and owns just a 3-9 record over its last 12 games.
Betting the Nationals (54-52 SU, 64-44 ATS, 58-44-4 o/u)
The Nationals are in the midst of a fine season, winning three consecutive series against the Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Athletics to sit just one game out of a playoff spot in the NL entering play Monday.
Most online sportsbooks had Washington’s season win total set low at around 66 entering the season, but the team has wildly exceeded expectations and is on track for over 80 wins.
Outfielder James Wood (4 WAR) and Abrams (4.3 WAR) have developed into bonafide MLB stars, and the team has received solid starting pitching from Foster Griffin (3.8 pitching WAR) and Cade Cavalli (1.7 pitching WAR) to help vault the club into contention.
It’s worth noting, though, that the Nationals have been dreadful at home this season, compiling a 22-32 record to this point (32-20 on the road).
Probable starting pitchers
Toronto: RHP Max Scherzer (1-4, 10.23 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 5.73 K/9)
It’s Scherzer’s 42nd birthday on Monday, and he’ll be making his first start in over a month against one of his former teams, the Nationals.
Thumb and back injuries have sidelined the future Hall of Famer, but he’s worked his way back to the majors after a few rehab appearances in the minors and three cortisone injections in this ailing thumb.
Scherzer’s numbers in the majors have been absolutely dreadful this season, but he was highly effective in his last rehab start for Triple-A Buffalo, holding Rochester to no runs on no hits with no walks while striking out seven over five innings.
It’s beginning to look like every start Scherzer makes could be the last of his illustrious pitching career, but you can bet he’ll put in a gritty effort against his former club on Monday night.
Washington: LHP Andrew Alvarez (2-3, 4.22 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 9.28 K/9)
Alvarez features a devastating curveball that is highly effective against right-handed batters (.189 BA, .175 xBA), and he ranks in the 89th percentile among qualified pitchers with a 52.3 ground-ball rate.
However, the southpaw isn’t very adept at getting left-handed batters out, as they’re slashing a collective .310/.375/.466 with an .841 OPS off of him.
Alvarez has struggled over his last three starts (11 ER over 12 innings) against the Astros and Yankees and in the high altitude in Colorado, pushing his ERA to a lofty 5.94 over four starts this month.
Notable injuries
The following notable players are on the injured list for Washington:
- P Connelly Early (elbow)
- P Brad Lord (oblique)
- P Trevor Williams (elbow)
- P Jake Irvin (shoulder)
- P Richard Lovelady (triceps)
- P Josiah Gray (elbow)
The following notable players are on the injured list for Toronto:
- OF Jesus Sanchez (ankle)
- P Yimi Garcia (elbow)
- OF Addison Barger (elbow)
- OF Anthony Santander (shoulder)
- P Joe Mantiply (knee)
- P Jose Berrios (elbow)
- P Cody Ponce (knee)
- P Bowden Francis (elbow)
- OF Jonatan Clase (foot)
- P Patrick Corbin (shoulder)
Weather
Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 27 C with an 80% chance of a passing shower in Washington on Monday night. Winds will blow out to left field at just 5 mph.
Blue Jays vs. Nationals betting trends
- The Blue Jays swept the three-game season series with the Nationals last year at Rogers Centre.
- The under is 4-1 in Toronto’s last five games.
- The under is 5-2 in Washington’s last seven games.
- Washington is the best team on the run line in the majors this year (64-44 ATS).
- The Blue Jays have hit the F5 team total under in eight of their last nine games.
Nationals run line -1.5
Blue Jays vs. Nationals player prop trends
- Abrams has hit safely in seven straight games and 18 of his last 10. He’s -235 to extend his hitting streak.
- Abrams is also crushing the ball right now, launching homers in each of his last two games and five of his last seven.
- Scherzer has allowed five hits or more in each of his last four starts. He’s -120 to allow over 4.5 hits on Monday.
