Despite a solid effort, the Edmonton Oilers couldn’t completely rip away home ice from the Dallas Stars on Saturday night. Nevertheless, they come home pretty happy, having split two games in enemy territory and putting themselves in a good spot to get a grip on the 2024 NHL Western Conference Final. Let’s look at what’s come to pass, and what to expect looking ahead to Game 3’s puck drop on Monday night.
Bet on Stars vs. Oilers GM 3
The moneyline favourites are the Oilers, coming in between -125 and -138 across Canada’s top sportsbooks.
Stars vs. Oilers Best Odds
| Stars Moneyline Odds | +115 @ Betano |
| Oilers Moneyline Odds | -125 @ Betano |
| Puckline odds | Oilers -1.5 (+205) @ Pinnacle Stars +1.5 (-230) @ Bet99 |
| Series odds | Oilers -110, Stars -110 @ bet365 |
| Total | Over 5.5 goals (-114) @ Betano Under 5.5 goals (+101) @ Pinnacle |
| Time/Date | May 27, 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | Broadcast: CBC, Sportsnet, TVA Sports Stream: Sportsnet+ (How to watch the NHL in Canada?) |
Last Matchup
The first few minutes of this game gave the impression of a potential firefight. Less than four minutes in, Jamie Benn streaked into the Oilers’ defensive zone and ripped a wrist shot past Stuart Skinner to give the Stars the lead, only to be met by an equalizer by Connor Brown less than a minute later.
But then, radio silence, at least until the beginning of the third. Mason Marchment deflected a Ryan Suter point shot to give his team the lead with 16 minutes remaining, and with two minutes remaining, Esa Lindell ripped a wrist shot down the ice to close the game off with an empty-netter.
Betting Dallas Stars (9-6 SU, 6-9 ATS, 5-9 o/u)
Jake Oettinger built on his Conn Smythe Trophy case on Saturday, putting together another spectacular performance that was likely the biggest factor in Dallas’ win. Oettinger stopped 28 of 29 shots, including eight of nine from high-danger (inner-slot) areas. In a game where the Stars effectively won by a goal, it’s not hard to shower the 25-year-old with praise for his efforts.
Through these playoffs, Oettinger’s .922 save percentage trails only Igor Shesterkin for save percentage among remaining goalies, and his 2.04 goals-against average sits at the top. Given that Dallas has the lowest goals for per game of the four remaining teams, keeping the puck out is more important for them than anyone else.
One player to watch moving forward is Ty Dellandrea. He played in his first game since the first round on Saturday and had a positive shot attempt and expected goal shares while on the ice, taking three shots on goal of his own. I’d be interested to see if he stays in the lineup and gets more minutes within them.
Betting Edmonton Oilers (9-5 SU, 4-10 ATS, 7-7 o/u)
The Oilers probably feel frustrated about losing this game, even if they won’t say it. Edmonton controlled the majority of the shots, attempts, and quality chances throughout this game, and not just when they were trailing. This included an explosive first period where they outshot the Stars 16-4 at 5-on-5 and had nine slot chances to Dallas’ one. As mentioned above, Oettinger was great, but you still prefer to break through.
At the same time, stealing one game of home-ice advantage and setting the tone for much of the second is a strong starting point for them if they want to pull away in the later stages of this series. Perhaps a bit more opportunity on the power play at home would go a long way – Kris Knoblauch was critical of the lack of calls against Dallas following Game 2 and it’ll be interesting to see how the officials respond to that. You also know that the big guns tend to step up after off nights, so that’s something to keep an eye on tonight as well.
Projected Stars vs. Oilers Lines
| Today’s Dallas Stars Lines | Today’s Edmonton Oilers Lines |
|---|---|
| Forwards Jason Robertson – Tyler Seguin – Evgeni Dadonov Mason Marchment – Matt Duchene – Joe Pavelski Jamie Benn – Wyatt Johnston – Logan Stankoven Ty Dellandrea – Sam Steel – Craig Smith Defence Thomas Harley – Miro Heiskanen Esa Lindell – Chris Tanev Ryan Suter – Alex Petrovic Starting In Goal Jake Oettinger PO: 9-4-2, 2.04 GAA, 0.922 SV% Season: 35-14-4, 2.72 GAA, 0.905 SV% | Forwards Ryan Nugent-Hopkins – Connor McDavid – Zach Hyman Dylan Holloway – Leon Draisaitl – Evander Kane Warren Foegele – Adam Henrique – Derek Ryan Mattias Janmark – Sam Carrick – Connor Brown Defence Mattias Ekholm – Evan Bouchard Darnell Nurse – Vincent Desharnais Brett Kulak – Cody Ceci Starting In Goal Stuart Skinner PO: 8-3-1, 2.65 GAA, 0.890 SV% Season: 36-16-5, 2.62 GAA, 0.905 SV% |
The Stars made a couple of tweaks to the layout of the forward lineup last game, and given the end result, I’d be surprised if there was much of a tweak to them, unless Roope Hintz is confirmed to return from injury.
Edmonton’s lone change as of this moment in
Leon Draisaitl to score a powerplay point
Stars vs. Oilers Injury Concerns
As referenced above, Dallas forward Roope Hintz is very close to a return, though “game-time decision” turned into “didn’t even warm up” on Saturday. Adam Henrique returns to the lineup for the Oilers, replacing Ryan McLeod, who gets a “reset” night off.
Jani Hakanpaa will likely remain out for Dallas.
NHL Betting Trends
- The two teams have split their last 10 games – both straight-up and against the puckline – dating back to March 2022. Neither team has won two in a row against the other since the Oilers did it in the final two head-to-head games of 2022/23. The total goals over has been cleared six times across those 10 games.
- The Oilers are 6-4 in their last 10 games, with a 2-8 record against the puckline. The total goals have exceeded the line four times in those 10 games, with five unders and a push.
- The Stars are 6-4 in their last 10 games, with a 5-5 record against the puckline. They’ve fared well on the road, with wins in their last three and an 8-2 record in their last 10 away games. They’ve hit three overs in their last 10 games on total goals.
NHL Player Prop Trends
- Jamie Benn and Jason Robertson have been Dallas’ most productive forwards over the last 10 games. Both have eight points – Robertson has a team-leading eight assists with no goals, Benn has three goals and five assists.
- Tyler Seguin leads the Stars in goals (five) and shots on goal (35) in their last 10 games. The most productive player in the stars lineup in general, however? Miro Heiskanen has four goals and five assists in Dallas’ last 10.
- In Edmonton, it’s the same names as you’ve come to expect. Leon Draisaitl leads the Oilers with 17 points in the team’s last 10 games, sharing the goals lead with Zach Hyman (six) and the assists lead with Connor McDavid (11). Hyman leads the team in shots on goal with 40.
Stars vs. Oilers Predictions
- Leon Draisaitl’s playoff point streak ended in Game 3, finding himself off the scoreboard for the first time in 14 games on Saturday. He finishes with the third-longest playoff point streak in Oilers history and five games back of the NHL record. For the most part in his career, he’s responded well to bad nights, only going pointless in back-to-back playoff games twice in his career. An interesting bet to make tonight would involve banking on a response from him, and on the Oilers getting the man advantages that they weren’t getting in the previous games. A power-play point for Draisaitl can be picked up for +105 on theScore Bet.
- Joe Pavelski has been colder than we’re used to in these playoffs, producing just four points in 15 games. In this series, he’s pointless with three shots on goal in 39 minutes of action. I lean towards feeling like he’s due for an impact, though some say that father time is coming for him, as it does everyone. If you like him to get a point tonight, the best price is on theScore Bet at +110. If you think the slump continues, your best value on under 0.5 points is on DraftKings at -135.
- Lastly, the books are starting to pull the total goals line down a bit, slumping to 5.5 today. Games tend to get lower scoring as a series progresses and we’ve already seen two unders in this round, so the safe money would be on Pinnacle at +100. Then again, the total goals line has not been kind to me in these playoffs, so perhaps a fade is in order here. Enjoy the game!
