The Toronto Maple Leafs are back in NHL action on Thursday night, taking on the Seattle Kraken. The blue and white come into this one riding the high of a wild shootout victory, though confidence will only get you so far against a Kraken team that rarely lets their opponents off lightly.
Bet on Kraken Vs. Maple Leafs
SEA +165
TOR -185
The Maple Leafs come into this one as healthy -185 moneyline home favourites.
Kraken vs. Maple Leafs odds
| Maple Leafs Moneyline Odds | -185 |
| Kraken Moneyline Odds | +165 |
| Puckline odds | Maple Leafs -1.5 (+135), Kraken +1.5 (-155) |
| Total | 6.5 goals (over -115, under -105) |
| Time/Date | Nov. 30, 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Broadcast: TSN Stream: Sportsnet+ (How to watch the NHL in Canada?) |
All odds courtesy of 
About the Kraken (8-10-5 SU, 12-11 ATS, 12-9-2 o/u)
Regression has come hard for the Kraken, who were one of the league’s top-finishing teams last year. Their ability to put the puck in the net at an above-average rate was a separator that allowed them to have a 40-point jump in the standings over their previous season, jumping from 60 to 100. This year, they’re pacing out at about 75, an unwelcome dip for a third-year team that was hoping to build on their growth.
Certainly, it hasn’t helped that players like Jared McCann and Matty Beniers haven’t had the magic touch that they did last season, and while explosive nights were able to shield their below-average goaltending last year, a lack of offensive support paired with a tandem of Philipp Grubauer and Joey Daccord that both sit below the .900 save percentage line is leading to some unfortunate results. The Kraken have already had two five-loss-in-six-game stretches this year, and come into Toronto looking to avoid a third consecutive defeat. To their credit, they had points (3-0-2) in the five games prior to their losses to Vancouver and Chicago.
Seattle remains a reasonably fast and very hard-working group, and should not be taken lightly by the Leafs, who won three of their four games against them since the team joined the league in 2021/22.
About the Maple Leafs (11-6-3 SU, 5-15 ATS, 9-10-1 o/u)
The Maple Leafs had one of their funniest wins in recent memory on Tuesday night. After a putrid start against the Panthers, Toronto got its act together in the second half of the game, chipping away at the shot deficit and tying up the action thanks to a goal from Noah Gregor. Both Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll were fantastic, leading to the game heading to overtime and then a shootout through 65 minutes.
In the shootout, strong goaltending continued to be the theme, though Auston Matthews and Sam Reinhart were able to find the back of their opponent’s nets. In the fifth round, with the game on his stick, Evan Rodrigues slipped the puck past Woll and gave the Panthers the win. Or did he? After a review, it turned out that Woll had made a pad save on the original shot, and that the puck had rebounded in. The shootout resumed, Gregor went bar-down for his unofficial second goal of the game, and Woll sealed the deal with a save on Nick Cousins.
It was a fun ending, though one could also look at yet another result that wasn’t a regulation win and have some concerns. Or, from a betting perspective, you’ll see yet another loss on the puckline. Either way, a result they need to build on, rather than be satisfied with.
Last matchup
Toronto’s last game against Seattle came back in February at Climate Pledge Arena, and while it got off to a bad start, the team settled itself pretty quickly. Seattle opened the scoring via Vince Dunn a little fewer than four minutes into the first period but was met by a Mark Giordano equalizer a little over a minute later, and a John Tavares go-ahead tally a little over two minutes after that. Before the first period could end, Toronto was up by two, and Matthews added two more insurance markers in the final two frames to give the Leafs their 37th win of the season.
Projected lineups
| Toronto Maple Leafs | OPPONENT TEAM |
|---|---|
| Forwards Matthew Knies – Auston Matthews – William Nylander Tyler Bertuzzi – John Tavares – Mitch Marner Nicholas Robertson – Max Domi – Calle Jarnkrok Noah Gregor – David Kampf – Ryan Reaves Defence Morgan Rielly – TJ Brodie William Lagesson – Jake McCabe Simon Benoit – Conor Timmins Starting In Goal Joseph Woll 7-5-0, 2.74 GAA, 0.916 SV% | Forwards Jared McCann – Matthew Beniers – Jordan Eberle Eeli Tolvanen – Yanni Gourde – Oliver Bjorkstrand Tye Kartye – Alexander Wennberg – Andrew Poturalski Marian Studenic – Pierre-Edouard Bellemare – Kailer Yamamoto Defence Vince Dunn – Adam Larsson Jamie Oleksiak – William Borgen Brian Dumoulin – Justin Schultz Starting In Goal Phillip Grubauer (Probable) 5-7-0, 3.42 GAA, 0.881 SV% |
Even as someone who didn’t think Toronto needed to chase down a defenceman at the start of the year, that blue line looks rough right now. Injuries can be a back-breaker and I wouldn’t blame them if they started to explore options for outside help now, especially with today’s news (more on that in a minute).
On Seattle’s end, looking at its lineup is always interesting. The “misfits” tag went to the Vegas Golden Knights, but in a lot of ways, it feels like it reflects this group a bit more. Maybe it’s because the Knights got a few good players via sweetener trades from the start, or their aggression in adding stars to the mix, but Seattle’s group feels more like a who’s-who of support guys and not-quites. It makes them easy to root for, especially since they haven’t started lapping the rest of the league yet.
SGP: Matthews goal, 5+ shots, Leafs win (Boosted from +375)
+450
Key injuries
Mark Giordano bows out of the Leafs lineup, making an already very banged-up Toronto blue line even more shallow. Giordano broke his finger in the first period against Florida and didn’t return to the game. He’ll be week-to-week with his recovery. Mitch Marner was also hurt on Tuesday by a puck to the jaw, though he is expected to keep playing with extra facial protection. Max Lajoie was called up by the Leafs to fill the gap
On Seattle’s end, Andre Burakovsky is out with an upper-body injury and has about another month left in his recovery, and Brandon Tanev is expected to remain out with a lower-body injury suffered against Vancouver last Friday.
Post Publish Update: Jaden Schwartz is also drawing out of the Seattle lineup with an injury.
Betting trends
- As mentioned above, Toronto is 3-1 in this matchup all-time, winning twice in Seattle’s first season and splitting the home-and-home last year. The Leafs’ lone loss to the Kraken did come in Toronto, however.
- The Leafs are now at five consecutive puckline losses in a row, despite going 3-2 on the moneyline (and obviously, their actual record).
- Seattle has loved the over of late, hitting on it in 7 of its last 10 games, falling under twice, and pushing once.
Player prop trends
- The Leafs are pretty cold for production right now. William Nylander, Tavares, and Morgan Rielly are the only players with more than three points in their last five games. No one has more than two goals.
- Rielly, quietly, has nine points in his last 10 games. He also leads everyone in Wednesday’s Leafs lineup in blocked shots in that stretch, with 26.
- Seattle doesn’t have volume shooters in the way we’re used to in Toronto, with no one in its lineup tallying 25 or more shots on goal in the last 10 games.
- The most productive players in the last 10 games for Seattle are Oliver Bjorkstrand (3G 6A) and Dunn (1G 8A), who both have nine points in that stretch.
Wagers to consider
- Matthews didn’t break his slump against Florida, but after a bad first period, came around to tally six shots on goal and add his nifty shootout goal, which should be a bit of a confidence booster. If nothing else, his stepping up in the back half of the night means that he knows that the only way out of this is through. You can get him at +150 to hit or exceed five shots on goal, or -160 to clear 3.5 shots.
- If you’re feeling really confident in Matthews, a boosted same game parlay includes him getting the five shots, scoring a goal, and the Leafs winning, at a line of +450, up from +375.
- If you like the Kraken, a point from Dunn comes in at -130. He’s been their quarterback this year and you have to imagine that a night of offence would at least somewhat flow through him.
- For the shot prop gang, one more interesting SGP has McCann, Jordan Eberle, and Tavares all hitting 3+ shots on goal, going up from +450 to +500.
