Our prediction for Tuesday’s Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs NHL matchup is Montreal on the moneyline, with key betting notes for both teams below.
Scotiabank Arena hosts the regular-season opener for both teams on Tuesday night, after the Canadiens took both Sept. 19 preseason meetings between the teams.
Montreal has also won the last three regular-season meetings in this historic rivalry, which helps explain why the road team is still the preferred look given the latest NHL odds, even with Toronto opening at home.
Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs Prediction
Montreal moneyline: -110
Canadiens moneyline
We’re backing Montreal on the moneyline at -110.. The cleanest case is the prior regular-season baseline: the Canadiens went 48-34 overall, 24-17 on the road, and finished with 283 goals for and 256 against, while the Maple Leafs sat at 32-50 overall, 18-23 at home, and posted 253 goals for and 299 against.
Cole Caufield is the biggest individual reason to trust Montreal’s side of a game like this. His 51 goals and 258 shots on goal give the Canadiens the best proven finishing profile attached to this matchup, and Nick Suzuki’s 0.96 projected points offer another sign that Montreal’s top end should still create enough offence to justify a short road price.
There is a real counter-case, which is why the playable threshold matters. Toronto’s overall season metrics show 295 goals and 2,660 shots on goal, Auston Matthews posted 27 goals with 227 shots, and William Nylander carries a 1.04 projected-points rating into this game. That kind of offensive talent can punish a mediocre defensive night quickly, especially at home..
Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs Odds
| Maple Leafs Moneyline | -110 |
| Canadiens Moneyline | -110 |
| Regulation Draw | +310 |
| Puck Line | Toronto -1.5 (+210), Montreal +1.5 (-260) |
| Goal Total | Over 6.5 (+100), Under 6.5 (-120) |
Probable Starting goaltenders
Montreal: Jakub Dobes (last season: 2.78 GAA, .901 SV%, 17.3 GSAx)
Toronto: Sergei Bobrovsky (last season with Florida: 3.07 GAA, .877 SV%, -12.2 GSAx)
Betting Montreal Canadiens
Caufield drives the upside of the pick because he gives Montreal a true finishing edge at the top of the lineup. A 51-goal season on 258 shots is elite production, and Suzuki’s 0.96 projected points suggest the Canadiens should still have enough playmaking support around that finishing talent to threaten Toronto off the rush and in set offensive-zone possessions.
There is one meaningful hit to Montreal’s forward depth. Oliver Kapanen is day-to-day with a lower-body injury and will not play in the opener after spending camp in a planned second-line role. His 22 goals and 15 assists in 82 games last season are not trivial production to replace, especially because he had been centering Juraj Slafkovsky and Ivan Demidov in camp.
The blue line is also still missing Kaiden Guhle, who remains out with an adductor issue after minor surgery. Guhle did practice in a non-contact jersey, but that does not change his availability for this game.
Betting Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto’s firepower is the strongest argument against backing Montreal too aggressively, but the team’s early structure and availability remain important counterweights.
Jim Hiller’s early blueprint also points to a higher-ceiling version of Toronto. He has said the Leafs want to play faster and give their elite forwards freedom and creativity with the puck, while still demanding commitment without it. That kind of approach makes sense for this roster, but it can also create some volatility early if the details away from the puck are not fully settled yet.
That matters because Toronto is still trying to get a lot of new pieces aligned quickly. GM John Chayka acknowledged the challenge of getting many new faces, like Gavin McKenna, to become a team as fast as possible, and local reporting described the opening roster as having 12 new players on a 23-man group. Max Domi is also out with a back issue. Toronto looks dangerous enough to respect, but not stable enough for us to move off the Montreal side at the current price.
New acquisition Kirill Marchenko is a game-time decision due to a visa issue after the team traded for the star winger from the Columbus Blue Jackets on Monday.
Player prop to play
Gavin McKenna to record a point: -150
McKenna will make his NHL debut on Tuesday after being drafted first overall by the Maple Leafs this summer. Expectations are sky high for the 18-year-old forward, who is projected to skate on a strong line with veteran John Tavares and William Nylander on Tuesday night and get some minutes on the power play.
McKenna looked fantastic in the preseason, showcasing his elite hockey IQ and playmaking ability. He recorded an assist on three shots but led the team in zone entries (17), offensive-zone possession (2:13), and slot passes (8).
We’re backing the pride of Whitehorse to get his first NHL point against the Canadiens on the Tuesday night.
