Best NHL Prop Bets For Today (5/1/26)

In this article, Canada Sports Betting’s Nick Martin breaks down the two best NHL prop bets that provide value at online sportsbooks today (5/1/26).

Thursday’s card went 1-for-2, as we cashed our bet on the first period under in Game 6 of the Stars/Wild series but lost our angle on Leon Draisaitl to score in what was an ugly showing from the Edmonton Oilers. These guides now hold a record of +10.24 units across 192 selections this season.

Buffalo Sabres vs Boston Bruins First Period Under 1.5 Goals: -115 (Play to -120)

Yesterday’s breakdown backing the first period under in Minnesota’s series-clinching win was a success, and while some of the points will be redundant, Game 6 between the Boston Bruins and Buffalo Sabres appears to be an excellent time to attack the same angle.

The first period under is now 24-17 this postseason, entering Friday’s slate with games averaging just 1.29 goals in the first period. Those numbers become much more convincing if you eliminate the results of the Anaheim Ducks/Edmonton Oilers series, with all six games generally appearing as obvious opportunities to pass on this trend.

This is an angle that appears most enticing in the later stages of a series, as generally players and coaches tend to lean towards making conservative decisions in Games 6 and 7. The attention to detail defensively generally rises in the later stages of series, and generating odd-man rushes or finding situations where teams are caught out of position becomes quite difficult.

Referees tend to put away the whistles to some extent, while players are no longer as keen to risk putting their team shorthanded to assert themselves physically.

In this particular series the first period under is 4-1, with the Sabres’ offensive explosion in Game 4 being the only miss.

Boston has scored just 2.2 goals per game in the series and generated only 2.29 xGF/60 at even strength. They did not appear to be as strong offensively as their regular season results suggested, and as we expected entering the series, the unsustainably high shooting percentage from a lineup that does not actually seem to hold that much high-end skill has come down to earth.

At this point it feels as though Boston knows it is not likely to fare well in high-event matchups versus the Sabres. It’s best chance is to try to keep things as battened down as possible and lean on excellent play in goal from Jeremy Swayman to find success.

As the Bruins will likely look to lean on that style of play in this matchup, there should be a good chance that the game does not open up until one side is situated to press for offence. At -115, there’s value in backing the first period to feature less than two goals.

Clayton Keller Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: -115 (Play to -120)

Utah’s top line of Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz, and Lawson Crouse struggled while playing in tough matchups in the first three games of this series, but after a better showing in Game 4, bounced back with their best game of the series in Game 5. Across 15:59 the unit held an 82.9% expected goal share and generated 19 shot attempts.

Keller has registered 11 shots on goal over the previous two matchups from a total of 17 shot attempts. He’s been a little more aggressive in calling his own number on a power play that has really struggled, while at even-strength he’s clearly elevated his overall level of play after a slow start to the series.

Head coach Andre Tourigny should be able to help Keller’s line spend more minutes away from Jack Eichel’s line on home ice in this spot, which should boost Keller’s chances of spending a little more time in the offensive zone.

With Utah’s season on the line, we’re expecting Keller to build on two strong performances and offer a highly involved offensive performance in this spot, and he should play huge minutes given the way Utah’s bottom-six has struggled. At -115, there looks to be value backing the dynamic winger to record three or more shots on target.

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