You can bet on the Super Bowl in thousands of different ways, but there’s nothing more fun than rooting on a wager with long odds while you take in the action. And sometimes, you get lucky, and that longshot hits and literally makes you feel like a million bucks.
Bets are already literally pouring in on Sunday’s showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs. The American Gaming Association is predicting that roughly 68 million Americans (a 35% increase from 2023) will wager an estimated $23 billion on Super Bowl LVIII. Unfortunately, we don’t have an estimate on how many Canadians or how much money will be wagered on the Super Bowl north of the border here in Canada, but private operators in Ontario and provincial lottery corporations reported record-breaking handles at their respective sportsbooks for the NFL’s championship game last year.
Picking a long shot can be an excruciating process if you take it too seriously. It’s best to approach it from a casual and fun perspective and be sure not to blow a significant portion of your bankroll on it.
Here are a few longshot bets we’re considering at Canada Sports Betting:
Nick Bosa – Super Bowl MVP (+6600)
My colleague Jake Dee-McKoy wrote an article last week about the Super Bowl MVP odds and offered up a few of his predictions. In that article, he notes that only 10 defensive players have ever won Super Bowl MVP, an award that has been historically handed out to quarterbacks, who have won 32 times out of 57 (56%). Only two defensive ends, Harvey Martin (Super Bowl XII) and Richard Dent (Super Bowl XX) have earned the distinction.
But 49ers defensive end Nick Bosa is a different beast and could buck the recent trend of offensive players claiming the award in seven straight years. The six-foot-four, 265-pound wrecking ball has the unique ability to alter the course of a game from the edge, and he’s out for revenge after falling to Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV four seasons ago now. He recorded a sack in the 49ers’ losing cause in that contest and he’ll get his shot at redemption against Mahomes and Co. this Sunday.
Of course, he’ll need a career-defining performance at the Super Bowl to suppress Mahomes and a surging Kansas City offence. It’ll take a Herculean effort, like Dent’s two sacks and two forced fumbles in Super Bowl XX, to secure MVP honours. And he’ll need Brock Purdy and the 49ers offence to have a good, but not great day statistically, to not overshadow him. There is a path to Bosa winning MVP, and it’s making Mahomes’ life miserable on Sunday.
Bosa had 10.5 sacks this season and he’s added another pair this postseason. This past offseason, he signed a lucrative five-year, $170 million contract and became the highest-paid defensive player in the NFL. He’s a four-time Pro Bowler and has won both the Rookie of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year awards in just five seasons. I’ll back this player at long +6600 odds in this category.
Nick Bosa to win Super Bowl MVP
Game to go to overtime (Yes: +900)
Only one Super Bowl (LI between the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons) has ever gone to overtime, but several others have come down to the wire in the final seconds of regulation time, most recently when the Chiefs’ Harrison Butker nailed a go-ahead field-goal attempt with just 11 seconds remaining in last year’s Super Bowl. In Super Bowl V, Jim O’Brien kicked a field goal with just five seconds remaining to give the Baltimore Colts a victory over the Dallas Cowboys. And in Super Bowl XXXVI Adam Vinatieri nailed a 48-yard field goal as time expired to lift the Patriots over the St. Louis Rams. Vinatieri struck again in Super Bowl XXXVIII with a late field goal to give the Patriots another title, this time over the Carolina Panthers.
With oddsmakers only putting two points between these teams on the spread, this year’s clash between the 49ers and Chiefs has all the makings of a classic nailbiter. It’s very possible, and reasonable, that this game will require extra time to be decided. With such a small margin for error, both kickers – Butker for the Chiefs and Jake Moody for the 49ers – could be put into the pressure cooker late in this contest. Butker has experience working in his favour, as he’ll be making his fourth Super Bowl appearance. Moody is in his first NFL season and has converted just three of his five field-goal attempts this postseason.
Why not wager on a close game and a thrilling finish?
Game to go to overtime: Yes
Non-QB to throw a passing TD (Yes: +3500)
This is a true long shot in a championship game, but wouldn’t it be really fun to see?
Fans might remember when running back Joe Mixon threw a TD pass to Tee Higgins for the Cincinnati Bengals in Super Bowl LVI.
Mixon is one of five non-QBs to ever throw a TD pass in the Super Bowl: Tight end Trey Burton in 2018 for the Eagles against the Patriots, receiver Antwaan Randle El in 2006 for the Steelers against the Seahawks, running back Lawrence McCutcheon in 1980 for the Rams against the Steelers, and fullback Robert Newhouse in 1978 for the Cowboys against the Broncos, were the others.
If the potential joy of this happening in Super Bowl LVIII isn’t enough for you to throw down a wager, you should consider that two 49ers players – Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey (twice) – have both previously accomplished the feat, albeit during regular-season games. There’s nothing the 49ers won’t allow the versatile Samuel to do in their offence, so why not wager on the potential of a trick play on Sunday at a mouth-watering +3500 price?
Non-QB to throw a TD pass
Whatever you decide to wager on, enjoy the game on Sunday! And we’ll keep our fingers crossed that you at least cash in on one longshot.