Sunday night’s Empire State clash between the Giants and Bills at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park looked like a mismatch before news that Daniel Jones is unlikely to go in this one. Now, the offensively challenged Giants are going to have a heck of a time trying to stay within the 14.5-point spread being offered at Bet365.
Bet on Giants vs. Bills
Then again, the Bills looked a little jet-lagged last week in a 25-20 loss to the Jaguars, the Giants have a decent backup quarterback and this is a massive spread by NFL standards, so you never know what’s going to happen in a game that kicks off at 8:20 p.m. ET. New York also could be boosted by the return of star running back Saquon Barkley, who was limited in practice Thursday after missing the previous three weeks with a high ankle sprain.
The Bills run defence had its worst week of the season last week vs. Jacksonville, so New York figures to try to keep the ball on the ground and away from Josh Allen and Buffalo’s explosive offence. The fact that Giants head coach Brian Daboll was Buffalo’s offensive coordinator in Josh Allen’s rookie season of 2018 adds another interesting twist to this matchup.
Giants vs. Bills odds
|Giants Moneyline Odds||+800|
|Bills Moneyline Odds||-1300|
|Spread odds||Bills -15.0 (-110), Giants +15.0 (-110)|
|Over/Under||44.0 points (over -110, under -110)|
|Time/Date||Oct. 15, 8:20 a.m. ET|
About the Giants (1-4 SU, 0-5ATS, 1-4 o/u)
It’s looking quite unlikely Jones will be able to go in this one after sustaining what looked like a painful neck injury last week against Miami. He didn’t practice Thursday and the Giants appear to be preparing ex-Bills quarterback Tyrod Taylor to call the signals against a Bills defense that is particularly impressive against the pass.
If Jones can’t go in this one, the Giants do have a competent backup. Taylor finished up for Jones against Miami by completing nine of his 12 passes for 86 yards and in 43 games between 2015 and 2017, he threw for 8,857 yards and 51 touchdowns.
About the Bills (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 o/u)
The Bills defence has been stout, as expected this season, but that will be tested in a major way in the coming weeks. This Giants team might simply be too inept to move the ball, particularly if Jones doesn’t play, but make no mistake: losing linebacker Matt Milano to a major leg injury last week will be a major blow to this unit. Rookie Dorian Williams and fourth-year guy Tyrell Dodson will be on the spot filling in for Milano while A.J. Klein was elevated from the practice squad and could see some time.
The long-term injury losses of Tre’Davious White and DaQuan Jones also raise red flags about whether this unit can continue doing what it has done in previous seasons.
The Bills need to clean up some of the sloppiness that resulted in them being flagged 11 times last week, their most in a game since 2011.
With all of that going on, the pressure shifts to a Bills offense that looked a bit sluggish last week, but has generally been a powerhouse. Allen could make this a very easy win for Buffalo if he can get the offence clicking against an awful pass defence that blitzes a lot (third in the NFL in blitz rate), giving him copious opportunities to find mismatches in the secondary.
The Giants offensive line has been their biggest problem all season and it figures to be an even bigger problem in this game, especially with Von Miller, the active NFL sacks leader, getting close to returning to form.
New York has allowed an NFL-high 30 sacks and it could be without left tackle Andrew Thomas in this game. The Bill hound quarterbacks relentlessly, leading the league with 21 sacks, and most of that damage has been done while Miller was recovering from a knee injury that kept the 34-year-old all-time great out of action for 10 months.
The Giants haven’t run the ball well while Saquon Barkley has been hurt either and that could be a chore once again behind this line. New York ranks 23rd in rushing offense and they’ll be going against a solid run defense that gets particularly stingy near the goal line.
Under 44.0 total points
For the Giants, Jones (neck) is questionable, as is RB Saquon Barkley (ankle) after missing the previous three games. LT Andrew Thomas (hamstring) could miss his fifth straight game. C John Michael Schmitz (shoulder) has not practiced since being injured against Seattle. LB Micah McFadden missed the Dolphins game.
Bills CB Christian Benford (shoulder) is expected to return after missing last week’s game. TEs Dawson Knox (wrist) and Dalton Kincaid (concussion protocol) are questionable. DE Greg Rousseau (foot) may return after missing last week’s game, while DT Daquon Jones pectoral muscle) was placed on injured reserve this week.
The weather hasn’t turned nasty in western New York yet and forecasts are calling for cloudy skies with just a few rain showers in the area around kickoff. Temperatures are expected to be in the 10 C range with winds blowing modestly from the northeast at about 16 km/h.
- The Giants haven’t covered a spread yet this season while Buffalo is 3-2 ATS.
- Combined, these teams are 3-7 in hitting overs this season when it comes to the point total. The total is set at a low 45, but given Jones’ likely absence, it might be worth leaning under.
- The Giants won’t be playing far from home in this one, but they certainly are homesick. They have lost three straight games and are playing their fourth road game in their last five.
Player prop trends
- Gabe Davis has reached the end zone in four straight games and he’ll be lining up against a defence that ranks 19th against the pass.
- Only two teams have a worse run defense than the Giants and James Cook has been one of the most reliable backs in the NFL this season, picking up 292 yards on 61 carries, an average of 4.8 yards per carry.
- Giants LB Bobby Okereke has turned into an emerging star for a disappointing team. He had 10 tackles, including two for loss, against Seattle and 10 more against Miami, along with an interception and a tipped pass that was picked off by teammate Jason Pinnock for 102 yards and a touchdown.
Wagers to consider
- Given Jones’ likely absence, the Giants’ struggling offensive line and the fact the Bills’ offence is coming off a relatively shaky week, lean under in this contest.
- If you’re going to bet on the Giants performing better than their recent play and the Bills’ offence repeating a shaky performance from last week across the pond, you might as well go for the gusto. You get +800 if you’re willing to close your eyes and imagine a New York victory, so consider eschewing the big point spread and buying a lottery ticket on the moneyline.