The 2023/24 NFL season is underway and arguably the most exciting matchup of Week 1 is a showdown on Monday Night Football between the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets. A lot has changed in the AFC East this offseason, and this year, the hype is all about the Jets as Aaron Rodgers makes his debut with the team.
New York will have home advantage on Sept. 11, which will obviously be an emotional day for New Yorkers and Americans in the wake of the 2001 terrorist attacks.
Bet on Bills vs. Jets
Heading into the big matchup, there’s a lot to talk about. Let’s take a closer look at both teams, the key factors heading into the game, and what betting lines from bet365 you should be considering when it comes time to lay money down on the game.
Bills vs. Jets odds
|Bills Moneyline Odds||-130|
|Jets Moneyline Odds||+110|
|Spread odds||Bills -2 (-110), Jets +2 (-110)|
|Over/Under||45.5 points (over -110, under -110)|
|Time/Date||Sept. 11, 8:15 p.m. ET|
About the Bills (last season: 13-3 SU, 8-7-1 ATS, 6-10 o/u)
For the Bills, not a lot has changed. They’re starting the season with roughly 75% of last year’s roster, which puts them tied for the least turnover in the league. When your team goes 13-3 and is a perennial Super Bowl contender, only minor tweaks are necessary. And that’s exactly what the Bills did.
Offensively, a few things happened. The team signed guards David Edwards and Connor McGovern, both of whom could potentially start or, at the very least, provide quality depth on the line. The selection of tight end Dalton Kincaid has shown early promise of delivering a Travis Kelce-type weapon for quarterback Josh Allen.
Defensively, aside from the addition of Leonard Floyd on the edge, the goal has been to get healthy. Jordan Poyer is back after missing much of last year with a neck injury. Tre White is a year removed from knee surgery. Now all that remains is to get Von Miller back from a torn ACL.
At this point, the Bills have no more excuses — we’ve reached “put up or shut up” territory. It could be argued that the pressure of being favourites has been too much in recent years. With more attention going into this season on the Chiefs, Bengals, and Jets, the Bills may fly just far enough under the radar to take off some of the pressure.
About the Jets (last season: 7-10 SU, 8-9 ATS, 5-12 o/u)
The Jets showed promise, especially in the first half of last season. But after falling apart in the second half, things needed to change. And change they did for the Jets this offseason, leaving the team looking like a potential contender.
The biggest addition is Rodgers at quarterback. The four-time MVP brings something few others can, instantly adding credibility to the offence. Throw in receivers Mecole Hardman and Randall Cobb, running back Dalvin Cook, and a few additions on the line, and the offence suddenly looks dynamic.
Defensively, the Jets have mostly stood pat. Edge rusher Will McDonald IV, picked 15th in April’s draft, has already shown promise. This is one of the best defences in the league and they look even better, something that will prove scary for opponents.
It is easy to see why there is so much hype behind the Jets. Adding a legendary quarterback, a couple of solid receivers, and bolstering the offensive line to go along with one of the best defences in the NFL would have anyone excited. But the question remains as to whether the Jets have improved enough to overcome one of the most difficult schedules in the NFL in arguably the toughest division in the NFL.
This one kind of goes both ways. There is a mismatch on each side of the ball and it is each defensive line going against struggling offensive lines. On the Bills side, a few additions were made to improve Josh Allen’s protection, though we aren’t really sure where that stands after an up-and-down preseason.
The same can be said for the Jets’ offensive line. They struggled to keep Rodgers upright in the preseason finale, leading to questions about whether or not they can hold up for the four-time MVP. Against a stout Bills defence, they will be put to the test immediately.
Whatever passing props there are, take the under. Yes, these are two of the best quarterbacks in the game – Rodgers being among the best in league history – but even the best can struggle. With emotions running high in a primetime matchup, look for the defences to find pressure early and often, leading to a frustrating night for both offences.
Total: Under 45.5 points
For the Jets, there are no definite injuries as of now. Running back Breece Hall is listed as questionable and receiver Corey Davis is gone due to personal reasons. Past that, it is the standard wear and tear that NFL rosters contend with.
For the Bills, the biggest injury is Miller. He will begin the season on the PUP (physically unable to perform) list, which means he’ll miss at least the first four games. He is a game-changer on the edge and a difference-maker for the Bills.
Weather is one of those external factors that can end up playing a huge role in the outcome of a game. Because we’re in September, weather isn’t much of a concern, even in New Jersey. Temperatures should be around 23C with a slight 40% risk of a thunderstorm this evening. Wind will be light out of the north and shouldn’t impact the game.
This spread has been bouncing between Bills -2.5 and -2 at bet365 since it opened a couple of weeks ago. There has been slighly more movement on the total, which opened at 46.5 points and has since been bet down to 45.5.
- The Bills ended the year on an offensive high, scoring no fewer than 32 points in their last three games while also covering the over. With an improved offensive line and Kincaid at tight end, the hope is that the offence will be more efficient than it was a year ago.
- Though there have been a lot of changes offensively, it is important to point out how anemic the offence was a year ago. The Jets failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games in 2022, scoring more than 20 points just once as they dropped all six games. That should improve in 2023 but it might not happen in Week 1.
Player prop trends
- This is going to be focused on the quarterbacks and with good reason. Josh Allen threw multiple touchdown passes in 11 of 16 games a year ago (they only played 16 games because of the Damar Hamlin incident). Simply put, Allen is going to put up his numbers and there’s not a lot you can do about it.
- Aaron Rodgers averaged just 217 yards per game en route to his lowest full-season passing yards total ever (3,695 yards). It’s expected that he’ll rebound in 2023, having Garrett Willson, Allen Lazard, and Cobb to throw to. His over/under is set at 251.5 yards, which may prove tough to achieve against a stout Bills defence.
Josh Allen anytime TD
Wagers to consider
- So, when push comes to shove, what bets do you go with for Bills vs. Jets? Knowing about Allen’s propensity to throw multiple touchdowns, it is important to note that he didn’t do it against the Jets in either meeting a year ago. But he is an effective runner, so look for him to score anytime (+187).
- Despite the two teams having dynamic offences, their defences are just as good. On November 6, 2022, the Jets pulled out a shocking 20-17 win. On December 11, the Bills responded with a 20-12 win. With the over/under set at 45.5, take the under (-110) and feel good about your pick.
- Finally, there is the bet everyone is wondering about: the spread. The line is quite small at two points in favour of the Bills, which means that unless something unique happens, the winning team is going to cover. While the Jets look a lot better on paper, the offensive line presents a major question mark. Look for the Bills to make a statement on the road, both winning the game and covering the spread as well.