When Will LeBron James Score 40,000 Career Points? Odds, Projections For Milestone

It’s a matter of when, not if, we see more NBA history from LeBron James before the end of the regular season.

Fresh off his 20th career All-Star appearance, James sits at 39,868 career regular-season points. With 26 games remaining on the Los Angeles Lakers schedule, The King is undoubtedly in a position, providing he remains healthy, to become the first NBA player ever to eclipse 40,000 career points.

James to score his 40,000th career point on March 4 vs. OKC


James has been in a league of his own since February of last year when he passed NBA legend Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for the No. 1 spot on the league’s all-time scoring list (38,387 points). And now, at 39 years old, James needs just 132 points to reach yet another milestone in his storied basketball career.

Coming out of the break, the Lakers will play three games in four days beginning on Feb. 22 against the Golden State Warriors. James played just 13 minutes in Sunday’s All-Star Game due to a lingering ankle issue that has bothered him since the beginning of January. He’s been a mainstay on the team’s injury report for the past several games with a questionable tag for each contest as he continues to play through the nagging injury.

James said he’ll be receiving some treatment on the ankle this week before the team plays the Warriors and there’s a possibility he might not suit up for the first game back after the break to give his ankle some extra time to rest. It makes sense that he’d only play one of the games of the back-to-back set.

The Lakers are also fighting for their playoff lives, which should motivate LeBron to play as much as possible down the stretch as he pursues a fifth NBA title. Los Angeles sits ninth in the Western Conference with a 30-26 record coming out of the break, which means the Lakers have some serious work to do to climb into the top six in the standings and ensure a playoff berth. Grinding through the play-in tournament is surely not the path they want to take.

Odds for 40,000th career point

Oddsmakers at bet365 have tabbed the Lakers’ March 2 contest with the Denver Nuggets as the most likely date for LeBron to score his 40,000th career point at +200 odds. That’s the team’s sixth game coming out of the break.

LeBron is averaging 24.8 points per game this season and 24.2 points in five February games. If he continues to score at that pace, and we assume he plays in each of these contests out of the break, he should be within striking distance of the record by Feb. 29 against the Washington Wizards. However, bettors should consider that the Lakers have a pair of back-to-back sets (Feb. 22-23, Feb. 28-29) in their upcoming schedule, and LeBron’s ankle might not withstand the high workload. James may miss two of the team’s next five games in an attempt to manage the injury. That means March 4 vs. Oklahoma City or even March 6 vs. Sacramento could be more likely dates for NBA history. LeBron’s season high in points is 40 this year, a number he achieved in December against the Thunder.

Once history is within reach (within 40-50 points of the milestone), it’s also possible that we see LeBron do something really special. It would be fitting that he goes off for 50 points to claim the distinction and further cement his name in the NBA history books. But if you’re taking a realistic approach, putting your money on March 4 (+230 odds) with a sprinkle on March 6 at juicy +900 odds seems like the shrewd play.

Feb. 22 vs. Warriors+50000
Feb. 23 vs. Spurs+25000
Feb. 25 vs. Suns+5000
Feb. 28 vs. Clippers+700
Feb. 29 vs. Wizards+300
March 2 vs. Nuggets+200
March 4 vs. Oklahoma City+230
March 6 vs. Kings+900
March 8 vs. Bucks+1600
March 10 vs. Timberwolves+5000
March 13 vs. Kings+5000
March 16 vs. Warriors+15000
To not score his 40,000th career point this season+12500

All odds courtesy of