Runs may be difficult to come by Thursday at Rogers Centre, as the Blue Jays have struggled versus left-handed pitching of late and will be tasked with solving southpaw MacKenzie Gore. With Kevin Gausman set to oppose him, our Rangers vs. Blue Jays prediction will target Under 8 runs in the series opener.
The Blue Jays kicked off their crucial 10-game homestand with a series loss versus the Houston Astros, but somehow, still hold a Wild Card spot at 39-41. GM Ross Atkins is reportedly interested in pursuing starting pitching prior to the deadline, but may have to reevaluate his desire to be aggressive if the club can not start to elevate its play in the coming weeks.
Wednesday’s guide was not one of the good ones, as our pick on the Blue Jays to cover -1.5 was not overly competitive on a day where Toronto generated next to nothing off of Mike Burrows. With the loss, Nick holds a record of +1.12 units across 10 MLB betting predictions this season.
Rangers vs Blue Jays Prediction: Under 8 Runs -120 (Play to -130)
Under 8 runs
Though Toronto has elevated its offensive game over the last month of play and is currently offering a longer lineup, consistency has still remained a key concern. The Blue Jays’ production versus lefties, in particular, has remained quite horrible of late, largely due to the struggles of several of their star batters expected to hold the best splits versus southpaws.
Since May 25th, the Blue Jays hold a wRC+ of 84 versus left-handed pitching and have slugged just .385. Their plate discipline has been really concerning in that span, as they have struck out 24.1% of the time and walked just 6.5% of the time. Despite their high K-rate, they still rank just 17th in hard-hit rate, so it’s not as though they have been effectively selling out for hard contact either.
Kevin Gausman had his worst start of the season Friday at Wrigley, as he allowed seven earned runs while recording just six outs, and is in somewhat a concerning run of play over his last five outings.
Gausman has responded to his worst outings extremely well over the past two seasons, however. He’s had five starts that have followed a game in which he allowed five or more earned runs over the past two years, and in those outings he’s pitched to an ERA of 0.27 across 34 innings.
By no means is that trend guaranteed to continue moving forward, but Gausman has been a highly consistent arm over the past several seasons, and one day where he simply did not have it should not mean downgrading him considerably.
Gore has been fairly steady this season with a 4.03 xFIP and 4.08 xERA to go alongside a 25.3% K-rate. He’s not the most dominant lefty but should have a decent chance of authoring a quality start versus a Jays team that has really had a tough time seeing lefties of late.
At -130 or better, there appears to be value in backing this important series opener to feature less than 8 runs.
Rangers vs. Blue Jays odds
| Rangers moneyline odds | +125 |
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | -150 |
| Run line odds | Rangers +1.5 (-170), Blue Jays -1.5 (+145) |
| Game total | Over 8 runs (+100), Under 8 (-120) |
| Date/time | June 25, 7:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Texas Rangers
Similar to the Blue Jays and Astros, the Rangers can somewhat reasonably point to injuries as an excuse for their underperformance to this point. Texas is currently without 2023 World Series MVP Corey Seager, who has played just 47 games, while Evan Carter is now on the IL with an oblique strain.
The Rangers currently rank 18th in offensive wRC+, and have slugged just .390 this season and hold the ninth-lowest expected slugging rate. They also rank 17th in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching, and hold a wRC+ of 97 versus righties over the last 30 days.
The losses of Seager and Carter further negate the Rangers’ offensive upside, though both have had somewhat disappointing campaigns offensively to this point.
The Rangers bullpen has pitched to an ERA of 3.60 this season, after being projected as a middle-of-the-pack unit entering the season.
Betting Toronto Blue Jays
Trey Yesavage had a bit of a tough time putting batters away in Wednesday’s matchup but ultimately did his job effectively in allowing just one earned run across five and one-third. Toronto had a notably lethargic day at the plate against a pitcher, Mike Burrows, that has not been effective this season, before Jeff Hoffman allowed another critical run after a horrible botched pickoff attempt at third base.
All three games versus Houston were there for the taking, and yet the Blue Jays found a way to lose two of them. The bullpen faltered in some key moments last series and has been a source of plenty of criticism, but the larger concern is how greatly Toronto continues to lean on what still projects as a very strong bullpen.
Over the last 30 days, Blue Jays relievers have thrown 124 and 1/3 innings and pitched to an ERA of 3.69 in that span. It’s easy to criticize John Schneider for having Hoffman out there in another critical spot, but given the lack of innings being handled by the starting rotation, it’s not as easy to entirely insulate Hoffman from working important innings.
Gausman has been extremely consistent throughout his five seasons with the Blue Jays, and to this point this is the only campaign in which he’s not managed a sub-four ERA. He does hold a 3.48 xERA and 3.63 xFIP, however, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he’s able to offer slightly improved results the rest of the way.
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