Our Orioles vs. Blue Jays prediction for Friday night points to another high-scoring matchup between two injury-hit teams that have still found ways to produce offence. With Trey Yesavage and Brandon Young meeting again after a tight battle last weekend, the over looks like the strongest betting angle, as both bullpens may be asked to carry a heavy load.
Orioles vs. Blue Jays prediction
Game total over 8 runs: -115 @ bet365
Game total: over 8 runs
We have a starting pitching rematch of last Saturday’s contest between the Blue Jays and Orioles with Trey Yesavage squaring off against Brandon Young. Those two pitchers combined to allow just three runs, but typically pitchers facing the same team within a week span don’t fare as well the second time around.
Last Saturday’s contest ended in a 6-5 result for Baltimore, with the game pushing over the total thanks to Blue Jays reliever Jeff Hoffman’s implosion in the ninth inning that saw the Orioles rack up five runs.
Baltimore’s bullpen owns a dreadful 4.73 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP this season, and Toronto’s ranks in the middle of the pack with a 3.89 ERA. After a bullpen day on Thursday, many of Toronto’s relievers will likely be asked to pitch on consecutive days.
With ideal hot and sunny weather conditions for offence and likely an open dome, look for these two teams to combine for nine runs or more on Friday night. We’ll take the over 8 runs in this instance just to give us some insurance on our bet in case the total lands directly on 8.
As always shop around for the most favourable MLB odds at the best MLB betting sites before locking in any wagers on our Orioles vs. Blue Jays prediction.
Greg’s Blue Jays predictions are 18-10-2 for +6.91 units this season.
Orioles vs. Blue Jays odds
| Orioles moneyline odds | +125 |
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | -150 |
| Run line odds | Blue Jays -1.5 (+135), Orioles +1.5 (-160) |
| Game total | Over 8 runs (-115), Under 8 (-105) |
| Date/time | June 5, 7:07 p.m. |
Betting the Orioles (30-33 SU, 30-33 ATS, 36-26-1 o/u)
The Orioles have had a very similar season script to the Blue Jays, as they’ve been devastated with injuries to their pitching staff through the first two months of play.
However, they took two of three from the struggling Boston Red Sox earlier this week and enter this series with some momentum. They’ve won three of their last four series to inch back closer to the .500 mark, also earning a four-game split with Toronto last week.
Offensively, the Orioles have been doing some damage this season, ranking nine in the majors with an average of 4.6 runs per game. They’ve also hit the 13th-most homers with 70, led by Gunnar Henderson with 13 bombs.
Betting the Blue Jays (30-33 SU, 30-33 ATS, 32-30-1 o/u)
The Blue Jays halted a four-game losing streak Thursday with an impressive 7-2 win over Chris Sale and the Atlanta Braves. However, manager John Schneider elected to have a bullpen day instead of appointing a starting pitcher, so six relievers were used in the victory, putting the bullpen in a potentially tough spot on Friday night.
Nathan Lukes has been especially hot for the Blue Jays, hitting .455 with a .526 on-base percentage over the last 15 days. He’s enjoyed four consecutive multi-hit games heading into this series with Baltimore.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. continues to struggle to hit for power, with his last home run coming on May 17 vs. the Tigers. He has just three homers as his barrel percentage ranks in just the 33rd percentile this season (6.6%).
Probable starting pitchers
Baltimore: RHP Brandon Young (3-1, 3.35 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 6.91 K/9)
Young was relatively effective against the Blue Jays last Saturday, allowing two earned runs on seven hits with seven strikeouts over 6 2/3 innings.
It should be noted that he’s tough against left-handed hitters (.216/.295/.371 slash line), but right-handed hitters are thriving against the right-hander (.296/.351/.408 slash line).
Young’s Statcast metrics rank slightly below the league average in most categories, but his chase rate (34.1%) is in the 84th percentile among qualified starters.
Toronto: RHP Trey Yesavage (2-2, 2.19 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 9.49 K/9)
Yesavage was terrific last Saturday against the Orioles, throwing five innings of one-run ball while allowing just two hits. However, he did walk a whopping seven batters as he struggled with his control.
Aside from one bad start against Miami on May 25 (5 ER), Yesavage has held the opposition to two runs or less in his other six outings this season.
Most of Yesavage’s Statcast metrics are elite, as the right-hander ranks in the 97th percentile in xBA (.177), 93rd percentile in xERA (2.50), 96th percentile in hard-hit rate (28.3%), and 93rd percentile in barrel percentage (3.3%).
Notable injuries
The following players are on the injured list for Baltimore:
- P Ryan Helsley (elbow)
- P Dean Kremer (quad)
- OF Dylan Beavers (oblique)
- P Cade Povich (elbow)
- 1B Ryan Mountcastle (foot)
- IF Jordan Westburg (elbow)
- P Zach Eflin (elbow)
- P Felix Bautista (shoulder)
The following players are on the injured list for Toronto:
- OF Anthony Santander (shoulder)
- P Cody Ponce (knee)
- C Alejandro Kirk (thumb)
- P Jose Berrios (elbow)
- P Shane Bieber (elbow)
- P Yimi Garcia (elbow)
- P Bowden Francis (elbow)
- P Dylan Cease (hamstring)
- P Max Scherzer (forearm)
- OF Addison Barger (arm)
- P Joe Mantiply (knee)
- P Tommy Nance (forearm)
Weather
Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 27 C and clear skies at first pitch, but there’s a 40% chance of showers later in the evening. Winds will blow out to right field at 15 mph if the retractable dome is open.
Orioles vs. Blue Jays betting trends
- The over is 7-3 in the past 10 meetings and 3-1 this season between these two teams.
- The Orioles are 11-18 SU on the road this season.
- The over is 5-1 in Toronto’s last six games.
- The Orioles have hit the team total over in 12 of their last 18 games.
- The Orioles have covered the run line in nine of their last 13 games.
Orioles vs. Blue Jays player prop trends
- Yesavage has allowed four hits or fewer in five of his seven starts this season. He’s -150 to surrender under 4.5 hits on Friday.
- Yesavage has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his seven starts this season, averaging 1.3 per game during that span. He’s -150 to allow under 2.5 earned runs against the Orioles.
- Lukes has hit safely in 11 straight games and is -205 to extend that streak.
- Pete Alonso is taking an eight-game hitting streak into action Friday and is -175 to extend that run.
