MLB Season Win Totals: Comparing Odds With PECOTA, FanGraphs Projections

Pitchers and catchers are reporting for duty this week at spring training camps in Florida and Arizona, and that means baseball season is right around the corner!

Many sportsbooks have already posted their season win totals, including bet365, despite several marquee free agents still without contracts for the upcoming season.

Toronto Blue Jays over 87.5 wins


Cody Bellinger, Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery, J.D. Martinez, and many others are still looking for homes and could make a significant impact on futures outright odds and season win totals before the regular season opens in late March.

Let’s take a look at bet365’s season win totals as of Tuesday and compare them with some popular MLB projection models: PECOTA and FanGraphs (a combination of Steamer and ZiPS projections) in an attempt to find some value:

American League East

TeamSeason Win Total (bet365)PECOTAFanGraphs
New York Yankees93.5 (over -105, under -115)94.388.0
Baltimore Orioles90.5 (over -140, under +110)86.684.6
Toronto Blue Jays87.5 (over -130, under +100)88.083.0
Tampa Bay Rays84.5 (over -110, under -110)86.684.9
Boston Red Sox79.5 (over -110, under -110)79.580.2

All odds courtesy of

The Orioles won 101 games last year to claim the AL East crown, but oddsmakers and projection systems are expecting a huge dropoff in wins this season. Yes, the Orioles certainly exceeded expectations last season, but their roster is even better this year after acquiring 2021 NL Young Award winner Corbin Burnes from the Brewers to put at the front of their starting pitching rotation. Baltimore, without a doubt, has the best young roster in the majors and that position should be further bolstered by the arrival of the top prospect in baseball, Jackson Holliday, who could break camp with the big squad to begin the regular season.

Canada’s team, the Blue Jays, have a posted season win total of 87.5. This is in line with PECOTA’s projections, but FanGraphs isn’t as high on the Blue Jays, with a projected 83 wins after a lacklustre offseason that saw them come up short in the bidding for two-way sensation Shohei Ohtani.

American League Central

TeamSeason Win Total (bet365)PECOTAFanGraphs
Minnesota Twins85.5 (over -130, under +100)88.985.0
Detroit Tigers79.5 (over -135, under +105)74.979.8
Cleveland Guardians77.5 (over -145, under +115)83.880.5
Kansas City Royals73.5 (over -135), under +105)70.275.4
Chicago White Sox63.5 (over -110, under -110)65.566.7

All odds courtesy of

The Twins appear positioned to run away with the AL Central again this year, with every other team in the division projected to finish below .500. Minnesota lost right-hander Sonny Gray via free agency to the Cardinals, and it traded infielder Jorge Polanco to Seattle for a package involving righty Anthony DeSclafani. The team also signed veteran first baseman/designated hitter Carlos Santana to the mix.

Cleveland could be of interest to bettors as the PECOTA and FanGraphs models have it finishing much better than bet365’s 77.5 win total. There’s lots of juice on the over (-145), however, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see the low-budget Guardians sell off more assets (perhaps stud third baseman Jose Ramirez?) if they get off to a poor start.

American League West

TeamSeason Win Total (bet365)PECOTAFanGraphs
Houston Astros92.5 (over -110, under -110)94.790.1
Texas Rangers90.5 (over +100, under -130)86.081.4
Seattle Mariners86.5 (over -110, under -110)84.685.1
Los Angeles Angels71.5 (over -125, under -105)73.977.3
Oakland A’s56.5 (over -110, under -110)63.970.9

All odds courtesy of

The Rangers stand out in this division with their lofty 90.5 win total, which is much higher than both projection systems. The defending World Series champions posted 90 wins last year and they’re largely returning the same group of position players, except for Mitch Garver, who signed with the Mariners. On the pitching side, Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom won’t be available until late in the season due to injuries, and the team lost Montgomery, a key cog in its stellar postseason run, to free agency. Martin Perez, Aroldis Chapman, Will Smith, and Jake Odorizzi were also lost to free agency. Will a starting rotation consisting of Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning, and potentially Cody Bradford be good enough to help the team post 90-plus wins? Probably not, but there are still free agents that can help the Rangers get there.

Oddsmakers are also low on the Athletics who posted just 50 wins a year ago. But the projection models seem to think Oakland will fare much better this season, with FanGraphs even predicting the squad will top 70 wins! That projection seems unrealistic, but the Athletics have stunned the baseball world on more than one occasion in the past couple of decades by fielding surprisingly competitive teams full of players you’ve never heard of.

National League East

TeamSeason Win Total (bet365)PECOTAFanGraphs
Atlanta Braves101.5 (over -105, under -115)100.998.4
Philadelphia Phillies90.5 (over -105, under -115)84.385.1
New York Mets82.5 (over -125, under -105)83.780.6
Miami Marlins78.5 (over -130, under +100)80.180.7
Washington Nationals66.5 (over -110, under -110)58.065.4

All odds courtesy of

The bet365 oddsmakers are high on the Phillies when compared to the two projection systems. Philadelphia posted 90 wins last year and its big offseason move was re-signing right-hander Aaron Nola to a seven-year deal. With essentially the same squad returning, and a healthy Bryce Harper, it’s not unreasonable to think the Phillies can post 90 wins again in 2024. But with its core group of players (Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Nick Castellanos, J.T. Realmuto, Zack Wheeler, Nola, and Harper) all now north of 30 years of age, health could be a real concern for this team throughout the regular season.

National League Central

TeamSeason Win Total (bet365)PECOTAFanGraphs
St. Louis Cardinals85.5 (over -110, under -110)84.984.1
Chicago Cubs83.5 (over -130, under +100)80.681.5
Cincinnati Reds82.5 (over -110, under -110)78.480.2
Milwaukee Brewers75.5 (over -110, under -110)79.481.1
Pittsburgh Pirates73.5 (over -140, under +110)72.978.0

All odds courtesy of

This division is wide open this year, with the reloaded Cardinals getting a slight advantage in wins, according to oddsmakers. Chicago is believed to be a frontrunner to land one of the coveted remaining free agents, which could give it a slight boost in season win total projections before the first pitch flies in just over a month. The Reds are the wild card after posting an 82-80 record last year thanks to a breakout season from a few of their young stars. If the young core can continue to develop, the Reds could be the surprise team in the NL this season.

National League West

TeamSeason Win Total (bet365)PECOTAFanGraphs
Los Angeles Dodgers104.5 (over -110, under -110)101.893.6
Arizona Diamondbacks83.5 (over -140, under +110)86.284.0
San Diego Padres81.5 (over -110, under -110)79.381.3
San Francisco Giants81.5 (over +100, under -130)80.179.7
Colorado Rockies59.5 (over -120, under -110)58.063.5

All odds courtesy of

Fade the Dodgers and their 104.5 season win total? Both projection systems have them coming up short of this win total, and with no apparent challenger in the division to push them, it’s certainly possible this super team just coasts to around 100 wins and still runs away with the division title. However, it’s also possible that this loaded roster does something really special this year and challenges the single-season MLB record of 116 wins.