The Blue Jays will look to snap their six-game losing skid Monday as they host Bo Bichette and the struggling Mets. Based on the starters slated to start in this series, Monday’s matchup appears to be Toronto’s best opportunity to earn a desperately needed win, and our Mets vs. Blue Jays prediction will target the home team snapping its skid.
Trey Yesavage (3.56 ERA, 60 2/3 IP) will face off against veteran lefty Sean Manaea (4.87 ERA, 57 1/3 IP). The Blue Jays are priced at -120 to win the series on bet365 and at -125 to win Monday’s series opener, after opening at -120.
Following a third consecutive losing prediction on Friday, Nick holds a record of -0.12 units across 12 MLB betting predictions this season.
Mets vs Blue Jays Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline -125 (Play to -135)
Blue Jays moneyline
As disappointing as the Blue Jays’ 39-45 start to the season has been, things have been even worse for the Mets, who are looking to turn their season around after firing manager Carlos Mendoza last week. However, New York dropped two of three games in its first series under interim manager Andy Green.
Like the Blue Jays, the high-payroll Mets were expected to be far better than what they’ve shown so far. But perhaps even more so than in Toronto under Ross Atkins, it’s becoming increasingly clear that David Stearns’ roster has some significant flaws.
New York’s pitching has been mediocre, its lineup has been one of the biggest disappointments in baseball, and its defence has also been a significant concern.
After pitching to an ERA of 5.64 throughout 60 2/3 innings last season, Manaea has worked a 4.87 ERA this season, with a concerning WHIP of 1.41. He has suffered from an abnormally high BABIP of .333 and is likely due for positive regression in that regard, but Yesavage still appears to be a considerably more effective starter.
Yesavage has had a bit of a tougher time putting batters away recently, but he still holds a 2.97 xERA this season and an excellent Stuff+ rating of 97.
Toronto’s bullpen has scuffled of late, but it still grades out as the considerably better unit on paper, and we like the arms that should be available in this matchup. Jeff Hoffman and Adam Macko are likely the only two arms that will be unavailable, and we should see some combination of Mason Fluharty, Tommy Nance, Tyler Rogers and Louis Varland follow Yesavage in this matchup.
The Mets have hit to a wRC+ of 91 this season and rank 25th in BB/K ratio. For as ugly as things have been for the Jays offensively, they have still outscored the Mets where it counts looking at simply runs scored per game.
Mets vs. Blue Jays odds
| Mets moneyline odds | +105 |
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | -125 |
| Run line odds | Mets +1.5 (-190), Blue Jays -1.5 (+160) |
| Game total | Over 8.5 runs (-120), Under 8.5 (+100) |
| Date/time | June 29, 7:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting New York Mets
The Mets have started to offer greater offensive production of late, and Bo Bichette’s turnaround in form is one of the main reasons why. After a dismal start to the year, Bichette holds a slugging percentage of .579 and an OPS of .701 in the month of June. He holds an xBA of .300 in that time frame, and a hard-hit rate of 42%.
Bichette’s play at third base has been a concern though, and as we touched on earlier, the Mets aren’t strong defensively. They rank 25th in Outs Above Average and 25th in Fielding Run Value.
Manaea has cleaned things up of late relative to the start of the season, as across his last 10 appearances he’s worked to a 3.82 ERA and allowed an xBA of .232. He holds a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 17.6% in that span and owns a WHIP of 1.20.
Jorge Polanco, Marcus Semien and Luis Robert are currently on the IL, but at no point in the season have any of the three offered much of an impact. Clay Holmes is also currently on the IL and is a significant loss as he had lived up preseason expectations of being one of the Mets’ top pitchers.
Betting Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays have found ways to lose during their six-game losing skid, and Sunday’s conclusion was perhaps the most painful, as with Louis Varland on the mound, Jarred Kelenic scored the go-ahead run after a wild pitch.
Given the recent form of Kevin Gausman and Patrick Corbin, Toronto’s starting rotation currently feels like a major concern. GM Ross Atkins is reportedly interested in adding a big-name starter before the trade deadline, but unless the team starts to find better results soon, it would be very difficult to pay up for any starter that does not have term left on their contract.
There’s certainly a lot of pressure on Yesavage to perform in this matchup and help put this losing skid in the rear-view mirror, and from everything we know about Yesavage thus far in his young career, this is the type of spot where you want the ultra-competitive righty on the mound.
There’s still been some room for improvement, but Yesavage has been rock-solid over his last two outings while pitching to an ERA of 2.77 with an xERA of 2.03. He’s allowed an xBA of .159 in those two outings, and it still seems that batters are having a hard time making quality contact versus ultra-high release point.
Concerns regarding whether or not the league would start to solve Yesavage’s unique arm angle after a larger sample of play have not necessarily proven true, and when he is commanding his stuff he continues to do a great job of limiting quality contact.
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