Our Blue Jays vs. Rays prediction favours Tampa Bay to keep rolling at Tropicana Field on Monday night, with the Rays’ red-hot form, strong home record, and Nick Martinez’s excellent early-season numbers giving them the edge over an injury-hit Toronto team.
The matchup also points to another competitive game between division rivals, but Tampa’s pitching and current momentum make the home side the stronger betting play.
Blue Jays vs. Rays prediction
Rays moneyline: -119 @ Pinnacle
Rays moneyline
We’re getting an excellent price at 54.4% implied odds on one of the hottest teams in baseball continuing to have success on Monday night at home against a division rival.
Tampa, which has won nine of its last 10 games overall, also has the advantage in this starting pitcher matchup, with the red-hot Martinez squaring off against Lauer, who has been solid but rather mediocre for Toronto early this season.
The Rays are 11-4 at Tropicana Field this season, holding opponents to an average of just 3.73 runs per game with a .218 opponents batting average.
With Toronto’s roster still ravaged by numerous injuries to key players, back Tampa with confidence to win this game outright.
As always, make sure you shop around for the most favourable odds at the best MLB betting sites before locking in any wagers.
Blue Jays vs. Rays odds
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | +105 |
| Rays moneyline odds | -125 |
| Run line odds | Rays -1.5 (+170), Blue Jays +1.5 (-205) |
| Game total | Over 8 runs (-105), Under 8 (-115) |
| Date/time | May 4, 6:40 p.m. ET |
Betting the Blue Jays (16-18 SU, 14-20 ATS, 18-16 o/u)
The Blue Jays are hanging tough despite dealing with a myriad of injuries, claiming four consecutive series wins after taking two of three from the Twins in Minnesota over the weekend.
Now just two games below .500, Toronto has the difficult task of trying to take at least two of three from the red-hot Rays, but there’s reason for optimism with several players rehabbing injuries and nearing a return to the lineup over the coming days and weeks.
Blue Jays pitchers own the second-best K/9 mark in the majors at 9.56.
Betting the Rays (21-12 SU, 20-13 ATS, 17-16 o/u)
Most oddsmakers posted a season win total of around 76.5 for the Rays prior to the season, and Tampa has surged out of the gate to an impressive 21-12 record, just 1.5 games back of the New York Yankees for the top spot in the AL East.
The Rays are the hottest team in baseball, winning nine of their last 10 games, and are coming off a sweep of the San Francisco Giants at home. They allowed just two runs over those three games after yielding only five runs over three games to Cleveland.
Tampa is allowing just 4.2 runs per game (ninth in the majors) and its pitching staff owns the third-lowest WHIP (1.16). Rays pitchers are also holding the opposition to a .221 batting average, which ranks as the fourth-best mark in MLB.
Probable starting pitchers
Toronto: LHP Eric Lauer (1-3, 6.00 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 6.67 K/9)
Lauer will get another start Monday, but his spot in the rotation is in jeopardy with Jose Berrios on the mend from an elbow injury and likely to join the team very soon.
The southpaw is coming off a strong outing against Boston, holding the Red Sox to one run on five hits over 4 1/3 innings. Aside from one dreadful start against Minnesota in early April (7 ER), Lauer has been respectable as a starter in his five other outings, posting a 4.57 ERA and 17:8 K/BB ratio.
The Rays have struggled against left-handed pitching this year, holding a team .673 OPS (19th in majors) against southpaws.
Tampa Bay: RHP Nick Martinez (2-1, 1.70 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 5.84 K/9)
Martinez has been absolutely fabulous through six starts for the Rays, holding the opposition to two runs or fewer in each of those starts.
He tossed seven innings of shutout ball the last time he took the hill against the Cleveland Guardians to lower his ERA to a sparkling 1.70, the fifth-lowest mark in the majors.
Martinez, a sinkerballer, ranks in the 90th percentile in hard-hit rate (29.8%) but just the 17th percentile in strikeout rate (16.3%) this season.
Notable injuries
The following players are on the injured list for Toronto:
- OF Anthony Santander (shoulder)
- P Cody Ponce (knee)
- C Alejandro Kirk (thumb)
- P Jose Berrios (elbow)
- P Shane Bieber (elbow)
- P Yimi Garcia (elbow)
- P Bowden Francis (elbow)
- OF Addison Barger (ankle)
- OK Nathan Lukes (hamstring)
- P Max Scherzer (forearm)
OF George Springer (toe) is also listed as day-to-day.
The following players are on the injured list for Tampa Bay:
- P Mason Englert (forearm)
- P Joe Boyle (elbow)
- P Ryan Pepiot (elbow)
- OF Gavin Lux (shoulder)
- P Edwin Uceta (shoulder)
- P Michael Grove (shoulder)
- P Steven Wilson (back)
- P Manuel Rodriguez (elbow)
Weather
This game will be played in the domed Tropicana Field, eliminating the chance of weather impacting the contest.
Blue Jays vs. Rays betting trends
- The under is 7-3 in the past 10 meetings between these teams.
- The Rays are 13-2 SU against AL opponents this season.
- The under is 8-0 in Tampa’s last eight games.
- Tampa has won 16 of its last 21 games.
Blue Jays vs. Rays player prop trends
- Lauer has allowed five hits or more in four straight starts and is -140 to surrender over 4.5 on Monday night.
- Martinez has allowed two runs or fewer in five straight starts and is -125 to keep that streak alive against the Blue Jays.
- Daulton Varsho has recorded over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs in four straight games and 10 of his last 20. He’s +100 to beat that mark.
- Kazuma Okamoto has homered in three consecutive games and is +400 to extend that streak to four games.
- George Springer owns a .353 batting average and 1.156 OPS with two home runs in 17 career at-bats against Martinez.
