Our Blue Jays vs. Braves prediction for Wednesday night points to another tough matchup for Toronto against one of baseball’s most complete teams. With Atlanta rolling at the plate and Patrick Corbin facing a Braves lineup that has historically handled him well, this game sets up as a strong spot for the home side to keep its offence moving.
Blue Jays vs. Braves prediction
Braves team total over 4.5 runs: +112 @ BetRivers
Braves over 4.5 runs
The Braves are averaging 5.25 runs per game this season, and they should have no problem scoring five runs on Wednesday against a starting pitcher they’ve historically thrived against.
Corbin owns a 5-12 record with an ugly 4.99 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in 21 career starts against the Braves, a team he pitched regularly against as a member of the Washington Nationals for several seasons.
Atlanta’s current roster has a combined .354/.407/.639 slash line with a 1.046 OPS across 158 career at-bats against him, suggesting it could be a short night for the Blue Jays left-hander.
Corbin has been excellent for the Blue Jays this season, but his lofty 5.28 xERA and .286 xBA suggests he’s due for some regression, and that could very well begin tonight against a very offensively talented Braves squad.
The sunny and warm weather conditions expected in Atlanta on Wednesday night should be favourable for offence, although a slight crosswind won’t help lift the ball to the outfield.
Ensure you shop around for the most favourable MLB odds at the best MLB betting sites before locking in your wagers.
Greg’s Blue Jays predictions are 17-9-2 for +6.79 units this season.
Blue Jays vs. Braves odds
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | +125 |
| Braves moneyline odds | -150 |
| Run line odds | Braves -1.5 (+140), Blue Jays +1.5 (-165) |
| Game total | Over 8 runs (-115), Under 8 (-105) |
| Date/time | June 3, 7:15 p.m. ET |
Betting the Blue Jays (29-32 SU, 30-31 ATS, 30-30-1 o/u)
The Blue Jays dropped their third straight game after suffering a 4-3 defeat at the hands of the Braves in the series opener on Tuesday.
Kevin Gausman surrendered five hits and four runs with eight strikeouts in six innings before handing the ball over to the bullpen, which tossed two scoreless frames to keep the game close.
Kazuma Okamoto blasted his 17th homer of the season in the second inning for Toronto.
Toronto has averaged just 3.68 runs per game on the road this season, which ranks as the fourth-worst mark in the majors.
Betting the Braves (41-20 SU, 38-23 ATS, 28-30-3 o/u)
The Braves have now won four of their last five games after taking Tuesday’s series opener with Toronto to expand their lead to 9.5 games over the Philadelphia Phillies for the top spot in the NL East.
They got a lengthy start from Bryce Elder, who allowed three runs over 6 2/3 innings on Tuesday, which helped preserve the bullpen ahead of Wednesday’s clash with Toronto.
Atlanta is undoubtedly the most dynamic team in the majors to this point of the season, averaging 5.2 runs per game (third in MLB), while allowing just 3.4 runs per game (second best in MLB).
Probable starting pitchers
Toronto: LHP Patrick Corbin (2-1, 3.65 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 6.57 K/9)
Corbin continues to be a pleasant surprise for the Blue Jays, allowing three earned runs or less in nine of his 10 starts this season while pitching to 1.2 WAR in that span.
He’s been especially good on the road, authoring a 2.97 ERA across six starts while holding opponents to a .248 batting average. However, right-handed hitters are slashing .284/.349/.453 with an .802 OPS off of the southpaw.
Corbin’s Statcast metrics aren’t great, as he owns a 5.28 xERA with a .286 xBA.
Many of Atlanta’s hitters have a significant amount of previous at-bats against Corbin from when he pitched in the National League. They have a combined .354/.407/.639 slash line with a 1.046 OPS across 158 career at-bats against him.
Atlanta: RHP Grant Holmes (3-2, 3.95 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 8.37 K/9)
Holmes hasn’t been particularly sharp across his last two outings, surrendering 13 hits and four homers to the Cincinnati Reds and Washington Nationals.
Most of his Statcast metrics rank around the league average, and the Blue Jays can expect a healthy diet of rising fastballs and hard sliders from the 30-year-old righty.
Holmes typically does a very good job of locating his pitches to maintain a low pitch count, as he hasn’t exceeded 99 pitches in an outing yet this season.
Notable injuries
The following players are on the injured list for Toronto:
- OF Anthony Santander (shoulder)
- P Cody Ponce (knee)
- C Alejandro Kirk (thumb)
- P Jose Berrios (elbow)
- P Shane Bieber (elbow)
- P Yimi Garcia (elbow)
- P Bowden Francis (elbow)
- P Dylan Cease (hamstring)
- P Max Scherzer (forearm)
- OF Addison Barger (arm)
- P Joe Mantiply (knee)
- P Tommy Nance (forearm)
OF Jesus Sanchez is day-to-day with a wrist contusion.
The following players are on the injured list for Atlanta:
- C Sean Murphy (finger)
- P Joe Jimenez (knee)
- C Drake Baldwin (oblique)
- P AJ Smith-Shawver (elbow)
- P Spencer Schwellenbach (elbow)
- P Hurston Waldrep (elbow)
Weather
Forecasts are calling for temperatures around 22 C and clear skies this evening in Atlanta. Winds will blow from left field to right field at 7 mph.
Blue Jays vs. Braves betting trends
- Toronto is 12-19 SU on the road this season.
- Atlanta is 16-9 SU against AL foes this season.
- The over is 10-5 in Atlanta’s last 15 games.
- The under is 11-2 in Atlanta’s last 13 home games.
Blue Jays vs. Braves player prop trends
- Holmes has recorded under 17.5 outs in four of his last five starts and is -130 to do it again Wednesday.
- Nathan Lukes is riding a nine-game hitting streak into this game and is -210 to extend that streak.
- Ha-Seong Kim has struck out at least once in six straight games and in 77% of his contests this season. He’s -137 to strike out.
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has drawn a walk in six straight games and in 55% of his contests this season. He’s -115 to draw a walk.
- Acuna Jr. had homered in four straight games heading into Tuesday’s series opener but failed to go long. He’s +345 to hit a home run.
- Ozzie Albies has incredible career splits vs. Corbin: .438/.455/.875 slash line with a 1.330 OPS, including three home runs and 12 RBIs in 32 career at-bats. Albies is +105 to record over 1.5 total bases and +180 to record two hits or more.
