Following the postponement of Sunday’s series finale at Wrigley Field, the Blue Jays will send Dylan Cease to the mound for a marquee pitching matchup against Hunter Brown. Meanwhile, Shane Bieber’s season debut has been pushed back to Tuesday. Our Astros vs. Blue Jays predictions will target a low-scoring affair, backing the game to finish with less than 7.5 runs.
Like the Blue Jays, the Astros have battled through several significant injuries for much of the season and are tracking toward a finish below their preseason win total of 86.5. Still, thanks to a largely underwhelming American League, both teams remain very much alive in the Wild Card race.
After a losing pick on my last guide on June 10th, we now hold a record of +0.25 units across Nick’s seven MLB betting predictions this season.
Astros vs Blue Jays Prediction: Under 7.5 Runs -115 (Play to -125)
Under 7.5 runs
The Blue Jays’ offence looked completely lifeless through the first 15 innings of their weekend series at Wrigley Field before erupting for eight runs across the seventh and eighth innings on Saturday to secure a much-needed victory. While most fans hope that outburst could serve as a turning point, building on it won’t be easy Monday against Brown and a high-quality Astros bullpen.
Brown made his first start since March 31 versus the Tigers on Tuesday and offered no signs of concern after the lengthy layoff caused by a shoulder injury. He threw 92 pitches, allowing three hits and one earned run across 5 and 2/3 innings, and also racked up seven strikeouts and 12 whiffs.
Brown held a 2.43 ERA last season across 185 and 1/3 innings and held a Stuff+ rating of 105. Across his first three innings this season he’s pitched to an ERA of 1.10 with an xFIP of 2.64, and has struck out 13.22 batters per nine. It’s a small sample, but it currently feels safe to expect the 27-year-old righty to be close to the pitcher he was in 2025.
The Astros’ bullpen has pitched to an ERA of 2.46 over the last 30 days and holds an xERA of 2.83. Most of the Astros’ high-leverage relievers are well-rested entering this matchup, with only Steven Okert likely to be unavailable.
In two starts since returning from the IL, Cease has pitched to an ERA of 0.82 and an xFIP 2.15. He holds a 2.54 xFIP and 26.1% strikeout-minus-walk rate this season and, as was anticipated by the Blue Jays front office, has thrived after some pitch-mix adjustments, and playing behind a better defensive side.
After an unexpected off-day on Sunday, Toronto’s overworked bullpen is in better shape entering this matchup and has remained steady with a 3.90 ERA over the last 30 days; a mark that to some extent undersells the upside of the arms of the team’s top relievers and was elevated in Friday’s 16-2 blowout loss.
Both offences have produced slightly better than league-average results over the last 30 days, but this total still appears to be a little high given the high-quality pitching we should see throughout this matchup. At -125 or better, I see value in backing this game to finish with less than 7.5 runs.
Astros vs. Blue Jays Odds
| Astros Moneyline Odds | (+105) |
| Blue Jays Moneyline Odds | (-125) |
| Run Line Odds | Astros +1.5 (-205), Blue Jays -1.5 (+170) |
| Run Total | Over 7.5 Runs (-115), Under 7.5 Runs (-105) |
| Date/Time | June 22, 7:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Houston Astros
After grinding out a series win in Cleveland with a 2-1 over the Guardians on Sunday, the Astros are now 6-4 over their last 10 games and hold a record of 17-21 on the road. They hold an ugly -44 run differential and are just 12-20 versus teams above .500, but are still just three games back of the final Wild Card spot which the Blue Jays also covet, making this a fairly important series late in June.
Thanks largely to Aaron Judge’s extended absence, Yordan Alvarez is currently the betting favourite to win the AL MVP at -150. He holds an absurd 1.068 OPS, leads the AL with 25 home runs, and ranks second in the AL in batting average.
Despite Alvarez’s brilliance, the Astros still hold a 16th-ranked wRC+ over the last 30 days and have struck out 22.3% of the time. They also rank 14th in wRC+ versus right-handed pitching this season, as the depth of the lineup has been diminished due to the long-term absences of LaMonte Wade and Carlos Correa.
As we outlined earlier in the article, though, Brown offers a legitimate ace at the top of the rotation, and his return to the lineup boosts the team’s upside significantly moving forward. Their starting rotation has pitched to an ERA of 5.00 this season and has been the team’s greatest weakness thus far.
Betting Toronto Blue Jays
It’s a point that has been widely covered, but for the Blue Jays to get the season moving in the right direction George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. need to start offering greater production. Springer has hit to an OPS of 1.089 over the last nine games and has seemingly found his stroke, while Guerrero had two critical hits in Saturday’s impressive comeback.
If those two can begin to do their jobs more effectively, the lineup could potentially start to feel pretty long, though it’s also safe to assume that some of the teams’ unproven batters that have been surprisingly strong thus far could come down to earth.
Over the last 30 days, the Blue Jays offence holds a wRC+ of 110 and has seemingly been a little more productive than is credited, which likely comes from the concerns caused by dealing with an incomplete rotation, which has placed a ton of stress on the bullpen to handle the majority of too many matchups and forced weaker bullpen arms to handle more innings than was originally planned.
Jeff Hoffman has been one of the bullpen’s greatest concerns this season, but his underlying metrics are excellent, and he has been drastically more effective in lower leverage spots, where he’s allowed a .246 batting average and .393 slugging rate. Tyler Rogers and Louis Varland are not entirely well-rested but should still be available in this matchup, giving John Schneider more options for the back third of this game than he had in recent matchups where the team collapsed late.
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