In our Tigers vs. Blue Jays prediction, we break down the latest MLB odds, starting pitchers, recent team trends, injuries and key player props before making our best bet for Monday’s game. Detroit has won four straight and is scoring runs in bunches, while Toronto is coming off back-to-back strong offensive performances. With two starting pitchers who have shown some recent vulnerability, the over could be worth a close look.
Tigers vs. Blue Jays prediction
Game total over 7.5 runs: -105 best odds @ bet365
Over 7.5 runs
This total seems low given the fact that both of the starting pitchers in this contest have struggled a bit recently despite having excellent seasons overall (more on that below).
Detroit, which has won four straight games, is also swinging the bat well right now, collecting six runs or more in four straight games with a combined total of 32 runs in that span. Toronto also put on eight runs on Sunday, one day after hanging seven on the Orioles, so both teams have some confidence at the plate heading into this series opener.
The retractable roof at Rogers Centre will likely be open with clear and relatively warm conditions expected for this time of year in Toronto, further adding to the potential for offence.
Take the over 7.5 runs with confidence, as we should see some offence on Monday night in a very important game for Toronto.
Tigers vs. Blue Jays odds
| Tigers moneyline odds | +110 |
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | -130 |
| Run line odds | Blue Jays -1.5 (+160), Tigers +1.5 (-190) |
| Game total | Over 7.5 runs (-105), Under 7.5 (-115) |
| Date/time | Sept. 14, 7:07 p.m. ET |
Betting the Tigers (70-79 SU, 75-74 ATS, 65-78-6 o/u)
Although not officially eliminated from playoff contention, the Tigers are playing for pride at this point, trailing the Guardians by 5.5 games for the final AL playoff spot entering play on Monday. However, the Tigers have rattled off four consecutive victories heading into this game, so they’ll have some momentum in their favour.
The Tigers are a horrendous 31-43 on the road this season despite averaging a hearty 4.53 runs per game away from Comerica Park, the ninth-best mark in the majors.
The team has also excelled from a pitching perspective, holding opponents to just four runs per game (sixth in MLB). The staff owns a very respectable 3.65 ERA and 1.21 WHIP.
Betting the Blue Jays (75-75 SU, 74-76 ATS, 77-71-2 o/u)
The Blue Jays got back to the .500 mark with an 8-1 victory over the Orioles on Sunday afternoon, but they still trail the Guardians by a single game for the final AL wild-card spot with just 13 games remaining. A favourable schedule down the stretch against four sub-.500 opponents is giving Toronto a legitimate chance at returning to the playoffs, though. Popular MLB projection site, FanGraphs, has Toronto with a 43% chance of making the postseason as of Monday morning.
A major positive sign for the Blue Jays is that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. finally awoke from his full-season slumber on Sunday, collecting four hits, including his first home run at Rogers Centre this season, a span of 75 home games. With the proverbial monkey now off his back, it’ll be interesting to see if Toronto’s franchise player can ride that momentum to finish strongly at the plate and propel his squad to the postseason.
Probable starting pitchers
Detroit: RHP Troy Melton (8-4, 2.42 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 7.25 K/9)
Melton is in a bit of a rough patch right now, allowing nine earned runs over his last two starts, which were both against the Twins. He’s also surrendered five home runs over his last four outings after allowing just seven over his previous 15 appearances.
The 25-year-old right-hander has a big rising fastball that averages 96 mph, but the pitch appears even faster to hitters due to his above-average extension. Melton also throws a solid cutter to hitters on both sides of the plate and will feature a changeup to left-handed batters.
Melton has had a very good campaign for Detroit, but he could be simply running out of gas at the tail end of his sophomore season.
Toronto: RHP Jose Soriano (12-7, 3.48 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 8.50 K/9)
Soriano will be making his eighth start for the Blue Jays after being acquired prior to the trade deadline, pitching to a 4.05 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in that span. He owned a solid 3.29 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 22 appearances for the Angels before being dealt to Toronto.
Detroit managed three runs on seven hits over five innings against Soriano back on May 27. The righty struggled with his control in that outing, walking four batters.
Soriano, a sinkerballer, keeps the ball on the ground at an elite rate, ranking in the 91st percentile in GB rate.
Notable injuries
The following players are on the injured list for Detroit:
- P Justin Verlander (hip)
- P Jack Flaherty (forearm)
- OF Matt Vierling (heel)
- OF Kerry Carpenter (foot)
- OF Parker Meadows (forearm)
- P Reese Olson (shoulder)
The following players are on the injured list for Toronto:
- P Trey Yesavage (knee)
- OF Anthony Santander (shoulder)
- P Cody Ponce (knee)
- P Patrick Corbin (shoulder)
- P Shane Bieber (shoulder)
- P Jameson Taillon (elbow)
- P Yimi Garcia (elbow)
- OF Addison Barger (elbow)
- P Jose Berrios (elbow)
Weather
Forecasts are calling for evening temperatures around 18 C and clear skies. Winds will be light and won’t be a factor.
Tigers vs. Blue Jays betting trends
- The Blue Jays are 2-1 against the Tigers this season. All three of the previous meetings between these teams played under the posted total.
- The Blue Jays have covered the run line in 10 of their last 15 home games.
- The Tigers have hit the F5 team total over in nine of their last 11 games.
Tigers vs. Blue Jays player prop trends
- Soriano has allowed five hits or more in each of his last five starts, averaging 6.6 per game during that span. He’s -120 to surrender over 4.5 hits.
- Melton has allowed six hits or more in each of his last five starts, averaging seven per game during that span. He’s -110 to surrender over 5.5 hits.
- Kazuma Okamoto has homered in four of his last six games and is +440 to go deep on Monday night.
- Riley Greene has driven in at least one run in four straight games and in eight of his last 10. He’s +145 to record at least one RBI.
