The Blue Jays and Rays meet Tuesday night in Tampa Bay with plenty at stake for two teams heading in very different directions. Toronto has surged back into the AL playoff picture despite a depleted lineup, while Tampa Bay owns one of the league’s best records and a six-game cushion atop the AL East. Our Blue Jays vs. Rays predictions break down the latest odds, pitching matchup, betting trends, injuries, and player props to identify the best value on the board. With Jose Soriano and Nick Martinez both taking the mound, the first-inning market stands out as a particularly intriguing betting angle.
Blue Jays vs. Rays prediction
NRFI (No Run First Inning): -122 best odds @ BetRivers
NRFI – Yes
With the full-game total set low for this contest at 7.5 runs, it’s very obvious oddsmakers are expecting a low-scoring affair with two premium starting pitchers set to do battle. However, the real value on Tuesday lies in the under on the first-inning total at -122 odds.
The NRFI is 18-6 (75% win rate) in Soriano’s 24 starts with the Angels and Blue Jays this season and 20-3 (87% win rate) in Martinez’s 23 outings, suggesting we’re getting great value on this game prop at 55% implied odds (-122).
Additionally, Toronto has failed to score in the first inning 78.5% of the time this season, the highest rate in the majors. Tampa has failed to score in the opening inning 67.7% of the time, which ranks towards the lower end of the scale, but that should be offset by Soriano taking the mound for Toronto.
As always, check for the most favourable MLB odds before locking in any of our Blue Jays vs. Rays predictions.
Blue Jays vs. Rays odds
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | +120 |
| Rays moneyline odds | -130 |
| Run line odds | Rays -1.5 (+155), Blue Jays +1.5 (-185) |
| Game total | Over 7.5 runs (-110), Under 7.5 (-110) |
| Date/time | Aug. 18, 6:40 p.m. ET |
Betting the Blue Jays (61-65 SU, 61-65 ATS, 65-60-1 o/u)
The Blue Jays have clawed their way back into the playoff conversation in the AL after impressive series wins over Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Houston. In fact, Toronto finds itself just a half game back of the final Wild Card spot entering this series, giving it a 15.8% chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs.
Scoring runs consistently has been a huge issue for this injury-ravaged squad all season long, as it’s averaging just 3.9 per game (29th in the majors). But the starting pitching and bullpen have been good enough to keep the Blue Jays afloat and in the hunt in the weak AL this year.
A recent wave of injuries saw Vladimir Guerrero Jr. land on the shelf, which is an obvious blow for a Toronto team desperate for offence. Vladdy has been a major disappointment from a power perspective this year with just seven home runs (and none at Rogers Centre), but he still owns one of the better on-base percentages (.337) on the squad.
Betting the Rays (75-49 SU, 70-53 ATS, 56-66-1 o/u)
The Rays have opened up a six-game lead over the New York Yankees for the top spot in the AL East, and they appear to be legitimate World Series contenders, with most online sportsbooks listing them at 11-1 to win it all this year.
Tampa had rattled off nine consecutive wins before dropping three of four to the Baltimore Orioles ahead of this series. A 7-6 victory over the Orioles on Monday helped Tampa snap a three-game slide, though, so the Rays should be feeling pretty good about their chances of winning this home series with Toronto.
The Rays have averaging a hearty 4.6 runs per game (ninth in the majors) despite hitting just 123 homers to this point (23rd in the majors). They excel at manufacturing runs and utilizing their excellent team speed on the basepaths (126 steals, third in MLB).
Probable starting pitchers
Toronto: RHP Jose Soriano (9-6, 3.16 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 9.02 K/9)
Soriano has been excellent for Toronto in two starts since being acquired just prior to the trade deadline, allowing just two runs over 10 2/3 innings while striking out seven batters.
The 27-year-old right-hander is on pace to set career highs in strikeouts, innings pitched, ERA, and pitching WAR. He throws hard, with his fastball averaging almost 97 mph, and his sinker has helped induce an elite 52.1% ground-ball rate, which ranks in the 88th percentile among qualified pitchers.
Soriano tossed five innings of shutout ball while striking out five batters in his only previous start against Tampa this season as a member of the Los Angeles Angels.
Tampa Bay: RHP Nick Martinez (12-3, 2.74 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 5.09 K/9)
Martinez is in the midst of an outstanding season and is coming off a complete-game effort against the Athletics last Tuesday. He allowed four runs on eight hits while striking out five on a very efficient 101 pitches in that outing.
The right-hander will be making his third start of the season against the Blue Jays, who have managed just two runs on 11 hits over 11 innings against him.
Nothing jumps off the page from an analytics perspective regarding Martinez aside from his elite 3.6% walk rate, which ranks in the 100th percentile. He doesn’t throw hard, averaging just 92.5 mph on his sinker/fastball and his 4.44 xERA is mediocre.
Martinez relies heavily on location and missing barrels, although his changeup is very effective against left-handed batters (.153 BA, .204 xBA).
Notable injuries
The following notable players are on the injured list for Toronto:
- 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (concussion)
- P Trey Yesavage (knee)
- P Jameson Taillon (forearm)
- P Patrick Corbin (shoulder)
- OF Addison Barger (elbow)
- P Yimi Garcia (elbow)
- OF Anthony Santander (shoulder)
- P Jose Berrios (elbow)
- P Cody Ponce (knee)
Weather
This game will be played indoors under the roof at Tropicana Field in Tampa Bay.
Blue Jays vs. Rays betting trends
- The Rays are 8-2 SU in the past 10 meetings.
- The over is 7-3 in Toronto’s last 10 games.
- The Rays have won 17 of their last 24 games.
- The Rays have hit the team total under in 10 of their last 12 games at home.
Blue Jays vs. Rays player prop trends
- Soriano has allowed two earned runs or less in four straight starts and five of his last six. He’s -165 to record under 2.5 earned runs.
- Chandler Simpson and Taylor Walls are taking eight-game hitting streaks into action Tuesday. Simpson is -210 to extend his run; Walls is -110.
- Alejandro Kirk has hit safely in six straight contests and has also drawn at least one walk in three straight games and five of his last 10. He’s +250 to walk on Tuesday night.
- Ryan Vilade has homered in back-to-back games for the Rays and is a long +900 to extend the power streak.
