The Blue Jays will look to snap their three-game losing skid Friday after a strong ninth-inning rally came up a little short in the series opener. Though Nathan Eovaldi (4.24 ERA, 93 1/3 IP) offers an edge over Patrick Corbin (4.73 ERA, 64 and 2/3 IP), we believe Toronto has enough positives elsewhere in this matchup to earn a desperately needed win as our official Rangers vs. Blue Jays prediction.
Thursday’s guide backing under 8 runs was not sharp, as Kevin Gausman continued his slump before the Blue Jays did some damage against the Rangers bullpen. With two straight losing picks, Nick holds a record of +0.12 units across 11 MLB betting predictions this season.
Rangers vs Blue Jays Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline -105 (Play to -115)
Blue Jays moneyline
Leaning into an adjusted pitch mix involving more off-speed and a wider variety of shapes, Corbin proved to be a surprisingly useful arm to help fill the Blue Jays’ void during a period when several of their key arms were out of the rotation. He’s had four consecutive ineffective outings, but those starts did come against some of the hottest offences in baseball, and he suffered from a BABIP of .364 and a strand rate of 66%.
Simeon Woods Richardson and Mason Fluharty will likely be down tonight, but the top arms from Toronto’s bullpen will be ready to go, and will provide a clear edge once the starters leave the game.
Like Corbin, Eovaldi has also not been overly sharp of late. Throughout his last five starts, Eovaldi has pitched to an ERA of 5.40 and an xERA of 4.20, and his Stuff+ rating has dipped to 92.
Over the last 35 games, the Blue Jays have hit to a wRC+ of 117 versus right-handed pitching, and aside from Vladimir Guerrero Jr., have looked much more like the offence we saw last season, a point that has largely been masked by the starting rotation’s 5.25 ERA in the same span.
At -105, I see value backing a healthier Jays lineup getting right with a critical win over Eovaldi in this matchup.
Rangers vs. Blue Jays odds
| Rangers moneyline odds | -115 |
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | -105 |
| Run line odds | Rangers -1.5 (+145), Blue Jays +1.5 (-170) |
| Game total | Over 8.5 runs (-115), Under 8.5 (-105) |
| Date/time | June 26, 7:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Texas Rangers
In an outing where Kevin Gausman’s stuff simply was not good, the Rangers racked up 10 hits off of Gausman before falling flat versus Simeon Woods Richardson, who did well to give Toronto a chance to come back.
Though Texas has been in better form versus lefties of late, it holds a wRC+ of 95 versus lefties this season and does not project as an overly strong unit versus southpaws with Corey Seager and Evan Carter sidelined. They rank 26th in BB/K ratio versus lefties, and hold the third lowest hard-hit rate in MLB.
The Rangers bullpen has worked an ERA of 4.64 over the last 30 days, with an xFIP of 4.08. It projected as a middle-of-the-pack unit at the start of the year and has been roughly as effective as expected.
Betting Toronto Blue Jays
Had Vladimir Guerrero Jr. not swung at ball four in the bottom of the ninth, the Blue Jays may have pulled off one hell of a comeback Thursday evening. Even with Guerrero’s struggles continuing to be a massive storyline, it’s clear that Toronto’s lineup has done a better job stringing together quality at-bats recently, and it’s offensive statistics are coming around.
Toronto has done a good job of driving up the pitch counts of opposing starters and should be capable of sticking with a similar process to help get to Texas’s softer relievers early in this matchup.
Guerrero seems to be doing all he can to help solve his issues at the plate and continues to put in plenty of extra work to try to figure out his approach at the plate. While the team has been highly reluctant to move him further down the order, at this point it would seem like a logical move to do so. It would likely alleviate some of the pressure and would make sense considering how many double-plays he tends to ground into when he’s not right.
Toronto’s bullpen has worked to a 3.84 ERA this season, and holds the fifth best xFIP in baseball to go alongside the sixth best Pitching+ rating. When the top arms are available the unit is undoubtedly still very good, but the cracks from pitching so many innings over the last month have started to show of late.
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