Our Astros vs. Blue Jays predictions will target the Blue Jays continuing to pitch Yordan Alvarez carefully after the current AL MVP favourite went 1-for-2 with two walks in the series opener on Monday.
After grinding out a 4-2 win against 2025 AL Cy Young nominee Hunter Brown on Monday, the Blue Jays have the opportunity to move back above .500 for the first time since April 3rd in Tuesday’s matchup. Shane Bieber will face off against Peter Lambert (3.23 ERA, 6-4) in his season debut.
Following somewhat of a dicey win backing the under in Monday’s matchup, Nick holds a record of +1.12 units across eight MLB betting predictions this season.
Astros vs Blue Jays Prediction: Yordan Alvarez Over 0.5 Walks +100 (Play to -110)
Alvarez over 0.5 walks
Across 81 PAs in the month of June, Alvarez owns an OPS of 1.134 and has slugged .652. The Blue Jays pitched him quite carefully in the series opener, and it seems logical that they will take a similar approach on Tuesday. Alvarez does not chase very often and has walked 14.9% of the time this season, so if Bieber and the Blue Jays relievers try to work around him, it’s unlikely that he will give in and extend himself out of the zone.
Bieber walked 2.65 batters per nine throughout his five rehab appearances, and though for a veteran of Bieber’s calibre rehab appearances aren’t entirely indicative of anything, that mark is still encouraging for this prop. In six PAs against Bieber, Alvarez holds an OPS of 1.467 and has walked once, so though it’s a small sample, Bieber may not feel overly comfortable giving the dominant slugger much to work with.
Christian Walker has slugged just .370 with a .205 batting average in the month of June, so if he is behind Alvarez in the order once again, Toronto will likely feel compelled to take its chances with Walker as opposed to Alvarez.
At -110 or better, there appears to be value backing Alvarez to walk at some point in Tuesday’s matchup.
Astros vs. Blue Jays odds
| Astros moneyline odds | +105 |
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | -125 |
| Run line odds | Blue Jays -1.5 (+160), Astros +1.5 (-190) |
| Game total | Over 8.5 runs (-115), Under 8.5 (-105) |
| Date/time | June 23, 4:07 p.m. ET |
Betting Houston Astros
With a strong sequence of challenges and takes on pitches outside the zone, the Astros worked Dylan Cease into a jam in the first inning of Monday’s matchup. Cease got off the hook by inducing Yainer Diaz to ground into a double play, and from that point on the Astros managed only three more hits and were fortunate to hang around in the game as long as they did.
Houston’s depleted lineup may potentially have suffered another significant blow in the game, as Jeremy Pena left in the sixth inning with hamstring cramping. Pena’s status for this matchup is unclear and he will not be out for long, but he has become a crucial piece due to his effectiveness and current injuries to other Astros infielders.
The Astros rank 19th in offensive wRC+ over the last 30 days and have struck out at the ninth-highest rate in baseball while hitting just .236.
Peter Lambert has proven to be a surprisingly savvy pickup thus far, as after four fairly unconvincing years with the Colorado Rockies, he was not overly dominant last season in NPB. He’s pitched to a 3.52 xERA and 4.49 xFIP across 64 innings this season and holds a well below-average Stuff+ rating of 91.
Betting Toronto Blue Jays
With Addison Barger now the only notable position player on the IL, the added length of Toronto’s lineup was fairly clear in Monday’s matchup. Though the team wasted plenty of run-scoring opportunities, as has often been the case this season, it did well to chase Hunter Brown after just three innings and grind out some runs off of some high-quality bullpen arms.
The Blue Jays opted to pass on some fairly clear challenges early in games often last week, and in the most obvious instance it led to a three-run homer in Saturday’s matchup with Patrick Corbin on the mound. It seems safe to guess the team tried to adjust its approach in Tuesday’s matchup, and while the idea made sense, the execution was awful as George Springer and Kazuma Okamoto wasted both challenges before the end of the second inning.
As we discussed yesterday, though, despite the warts Toronto has continued to exhibit offensively, it has hit to a wRC+ of 110 over the last 30 days and has seemingly turned things around more than has generally been credited. There’s still plenty of room to grow, but with a healthier starting rotation, it may become more apparent that the team is playing much more respectably offensively.
It feels like a bit of a guessing game to try and project how Bieber will look in this matchup. He pitched to an ERA of 6.88 with a 1.88 WHIP across five relief starts, but a veteran arm like Bieber would be simply trying to work on the feel of each of his pitches in those outings, and live with the results.
Bieber pitched to a 3.57 ERA across 40 and 1/3 innings last season and has worked just 52 and 1/3 innings dating back to the 2023 season. Bieber’s ceiling still feels pretty high if he is fully healthy, but he feels to be a pretty volatile arm out of the gates following another lengthy layoff.
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