In this article, we’ll outline our best Hurricanes vs Golden Knights best bets for Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final, as well as the relevant betting notes for both teams, so you can place a winning wager with any of the best NHL betting sites.
While not too many neutral observers were thrilled to see the Hurricanes take on the Golden Knights in the Stanley Cup Final, this series has been downright exceptional to this point, and Game 3 offered yet another thriller. After blowing a 4-0 lead, the Knights ultimately earned a 5-4 win in double overtime thanks to a fortuitous bounce off the end wall.
The Hurricanes are currently slightly more favoured to win Game 4 than they were Game 3, while the Knights are now priced at -185 to win the series.
We won our Game 3 selection backing the first period to feature under 1.5 goals at +105, moving to 2-1 on the series. We will stick with the same selection for our Game 4 best bet, despite the fact that the final two periods of Game 4 ended up being quite chaotic.
Hurricanes vs Golden Knights Game 4 best bets: First Period Under 1.5 Goals +100 (Play to -105)
1st period under 1.5 goals
Our handicap on the first period of Game 3 proved to be quite accurate, as these two defensive powerhouses allowed just nine combined shots and both forced a lot of dump-ins by checking effectively in the neutral zone. The Hurricanes then allowed four goals in just over five minutes of play in the second period, setting up their incredible four-goal comeback in the third period.
Despite there ultimately being nine combined goals in Game 3 and 25 in the first three games of the series, it is the stingy play in neutral game states that makes it fair to conclude that Game 4 may start out quite defensively once again.
The last two games have featured a fairly consistent trend in which things have really only opened up once either side has been forced to push for offence more aggressively in the later stages of the game. Throughout 25:38 of overtime in Game 3, the Hurricanes and Knights combined for just 18 shots, following Carolina’s incredible push to get the game knotted at four, and that may be a depiction of how the early stages of Game 4 play out.
The series was widely expected to be tight-checking, and despite numerous flurries of goals, the majority of each matchup has been more tight-checking than the scores suggest. And as we outlined ahead of Game 3, combined goal totals tend to drop in the later stages of each NHL postseason series.
Brandon Bussi may get the start for Carolina, and that’s not a concern for me looking towards this prop. On a goal-by-goal basis Frederik Andersen has not been as poor in this series as his save percentage suggests, but Bussi had a fantastic regular season and was razor-sharp in Game 3 prior to allowing the fairly unlucky overtime winner.
We should see a desperate Hurricanes side come out with strong attention to detail early on, but I’m not overly concerned that they will break through with much offence early on versus a Knights side that has generally still looked quite organized in the defensive zone in the series.
Hurricanes vs Golden Knights Odds
| Hurricanes Moneyline Odds | -115 |
| Golden Knights Moneyline Odds | -105 |
| Puck Line Odds | Hurricanes -1.5 (+230) Golden Knights +1.5 (-280) |
| Series Winner Odds | Hurricanes (+155), Golden Knights (-185) |
| Goal Total | Over 6 Goals (-110), Under 6 Goals (-110) |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Carolina Hurricanes
The big question for the Hurricanes entering this matchup lies in who will get the start in goal, and though head coach Rod Brind’Amour will likely wait as long as possible to reveal his hand, it seems pretty logical to conclude that Bussi will get the start.
Bussi stopped 18 of 19 shots faced in Game 3, and was never really beaten by a Knights shooter. He played to a +2.8 GSAx and .894 save percentage in the regular season, as well as a record of 31-6-2, and the reality was always that unless Carolina’s postseason went extremely smoothly, he would get a look at some point.
The Hurricanes got off to a solid start in Game 3, as they allowed just two shots in the first period, before falling apart and offering one of their worst periods of the season in the second. After being saved by two goal reviews, they still went on to allow four goals in the final stages of the period.
After regrouping at the intermission, Carolina completely dominated the Knights in the third, completing a historic four-goal comeback to send the game to overtime.
The Hurricanes have somewhat consistently been getting burned by the rush in the series, but their man-on-man in zone coverage was sharper for much of Game 2, particularly in the third period and overtime, despite ultimately receiving a losing result.
The Knights have scored on 15.03% of shots taken in the series and many of those were true Grade “A” scoring chances, but it’s still fair to say that Vegas deserves credit for just how clinical it has been when meaningful scoring opportunities have arisen.
Ultimately in Game 3 the Hurricanes generated 4.35 expected goals compared to the Knights’ total of 3.68. Considering that score effects did play a role in that, it was a closely contested matchup that could have gone either way, and that point felt especially true in overtime.
Betting Vegas Golden Knights
It was the performance of a lifetime from Mitch Marner in Game 3, which was ultimately the clearest reason the Knights were able to get it done. Marner led all skaters in offensive zone possession time, slot passes, slot shots, zone exits, and zone entries.
He obviously got rewarded offensively with three goals and an assist, and is now priced at -210 to win the Conn Smythe Trophy, while the Knights are priced at -185 to win the cup. Oddsmakers are therefore stating they believe there is a good chance Marner will win the award even if the Knights lose the series, which seems quite reasonable given that nobody on Carolina has an overly strong case right now.
Marner’s work has helped to compensate for the fact that Vegas’s fourth line still appears to be a clear weakness relative to its opponent in the series.
The combination of Cole Smith, Keegan Kolesar and Nic Dowd played to a 35.8% expected goal share across 13:08 in Game 3, and has generally not been effective this postseason. Strong depth helps, but the Knights are proving that with the right combination elsewhere you can get by with a fourth unit that needs to be sheltered.
Vegas has played to a 53.52% expected goal share in the series, and that number seems to run in-line with the ‘eye test’ for the first three games. It was always unlikely that either side would look to be entirely better than the other in this matchup, but if anything, a fair take on the first three games has to be that the stingy Knights have insulated Carter Hart relatively well given how many chances Carolina generated in the first three rounds.
Brayden McNabb deserves a ton of credit for his performance in Game 3, while playing with a full cage after taking a slap shot to the face in Game 2. McNabb played 35 minutes, and in his 31 minutes alongside Shea Theodore on the top pairing, the Knights played to a 59.7% expected goal share and outshot Carolina 16 to 7.
Rasmus Andersson and the Knights third pairing still look to be clear weaknesses relative to what Carolina is offering, but just the same as with the forward core, the incredible work of the team’s top two defenders is helping to hide that weakness.
Vegas will undoubtedly stick with Carter Hart in this matchup, who stopped 29 of 33 shots faced in Game 3 and now holds a +5.0 GSAx rating this postseason.
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