The AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays head north to Rogers Centre looking to halt a season-high five-game losing streak, while the Toronto Blue Jays hope to build momentum despite a disappointing start to the second half. Monday’s matchup features an intriguing pitching duel between the steady Nick Martinez and strikeout ace Dylan Cease, whose dominant recent form makes him the focal point of our Rays vs. Blue Jays prediction. Below, we break down the best betting angles, player props, odds, and trends to help you make informed picks for Rays vs. Blue Jays on July 20.
Rays vs. Blue Jays prediction
Cease over 7.5 strikeouts (+115 @ BetVictor)
Cease over 7.5 strikeouts
Cease is beaming with confidence right now after nearly throwing a no-hitter in his last regular-season start and striking out the side during his inning of work in the All-Star Game for the American League.
The fireballer has averaged 8.7 strikeouts per game with his elite 36.9% strikeout rate this season, and there’s no reason not to believe he’ll keep that momentum going into the unofficial second half of the campaign.
Cease sat down nine Rays batters over seven innings in his lone start against Tampa this season, so we like his chances of getting at least eight at plus-money odds on Monday night. Tampa only strikes out 7.13 times per game (lowest in MLB), but don’t let that scare you off this player prop.
As always, shop around for the most favourable MLB odds at the best MLB betting sites before locking in any wagers on our Rays vs. Blue Jays prediction.
Greg’s Blue Jays predictions are 21-17-2 for +3.49 units this season.
Rays vs. Blue Jays odds
| Rays moneyline odds | +140 |
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | -165 |
| Run line odds | Blue Jays -1.5 (+140), Rays +1.5 (-165) |
| Game total | Over 7.5 runs (-105), Under 7.5 (-115) |
| Date/time | June 20, 7:07 p.m. ET |
Betting the Rays (56-42 SU, 55-42-1 ATS, 44-52-1 o/u)
The Rays have seen their lead shrink to just 1.5 games for the top spot in the AL East over the New York Yankees after losing a season-high five straight games entering this series. They suffered a four-game sweep at Fenway Park in their first leg of their current road trip, which will conclude after these four upcoming games with Toronto.
Tampa’s usually stout pitching staff stumbled mightily against the surging Red Sox, allowing 28 runs and 35 hits, including nine home runs over the four games. Overall, Tampa’s pitchers own a respectable 3.90 ERA (ninth in MLB) and 1.16 WHIP (third in the majors).
Offensively, the Rays have been effectively producing runs without big power (only 98 home runs to this point). They typically look to utilize their speed on the basepaths, ranking seventh in the majors in stolen bases with 94. Cease isn’t particularly good at holding runners on, so targeting Tampa’s base-stealers might be a good betting angle on Monday night.
Betting the Blue Jays (46-53 SU, 46-53 ATS, 52-46-1 o/u)
The Blue Jays dropped two of three games at home to the Chicago White Sox in their first series out of the All-Star break to fall to 1-4 in their last five games overall. Now sitting seven games under .500, Toronto enters a crucial portion of its schedule leading up to the Aug. 3 trade deadline, which will clearly shape the direction of the team down the stretch. After these four games with the Rays, Toronto heads to Boston and Washington before returning home to Rogers Centre for three games with St. Louis leading up to the deadline.
Toronto has scored just one run over its last two games and was held to just two hits until the eighth inning of Sunday’s 3-0 loss to Chicago, which has won five of six against the Blue Jays this season while outscoring them 29-12.
The Blue Jays have struggled mightily at the plate all season long, averaging just four runs per game (28th in the majors). They rank near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage (.305), slugging percentage (.382), and OPS (.687).
Probable starting pitchers
Tampa Bay: RHP Nick Martinez (8-2, 2.65 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 5.30 K/9)
Martinez has been simply magnificent for the Rays this season despite now having an overpowering arsenal of pitches. The right-hander effectively places his sinker, changeup, and cutter to get outs with pinpoint control, as demonstrated by his elite 4.4% walk rate.
He threw five innings of one-run ball while striking out four in his lone start against the Blue Jays this season on May 4. Tampa won that game, 5-1, with Martinez picking up the win.
Martinez has also been incredibly defiant on the road, owning a 2-1 record with a microscopic 2.12 ERA in eight starts away from Tropicana Field.
Toronto: RHP Dylan Cease (6-4, 2.56 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 13.55 K/9)
You won’t find a pitcher hotter in the majors than Cease right now. The fireballer nearly threw a no-hitter in his last regular-season start against the Giants, and he struck out the side in his start from the American League at the All-Star Game on Tuesday.
Nearly all of Cease’s Statcast metrics are off the charts, most notably his 36.9% strikeout rate, which ranks in the 99th percentile among qualified pitchers. Opponents are barreling him up just 4.4% of the time (89th percentile) and the righty owns a rock-solid 2.87 xERA.
Cease tossed seven innings of one-run ball with nine strikeouts in his only start against Tampa this season on May 13. Toronto won that game, 5-3, in extra innings.
Notable injuries
The following notable players are on the injured list for Tampa Bay:
- OF Gavin Lux (shoulder)
- OF Jake Fraley (groin)
- P Steven Matz (ankle)
- P Ryan Pepiot (hip)
The following notable players are on the injured list for Toronto:
- OF Jesus Sanchez (ankle)
- P Yimi Garcia (elbow)
- P Max Scherzer (back)
- OF Addison Barger (elbow)
- OF Anthony Santander (shoulder)
- P Joe Mantiply (knee)
- P Jose Berrios (elbow)
- P Cody Ponce (knee)
- P Bowden Francis (elbow)
Weather
It should be a lovely night for outdoor baseball in Toronto, with temperatures expected to reach 24 C under clear skies. Winds will blow out to left field at 13 mph.
Rays vs. Blue Jays trends
- The Rays are 5-1 SU vs. the Blue Jays this season.
- Tampa is 21-27 SU on the road this season.
- Toronto has hit the team total under in 12 of its last 17 games.
- The Rays have hit the team total under in 15 of their last 21 road games.
Rays vs. Blue Jays player prop trends
- Cease has struck out eight or more batters in nine of his last 10 starts, averaging nine per game during that span. He’s +100 to record over 7.5 strikeouts on Monday night.
- Cease has allowed four hits or less in nine straight starts and is -160 to allow under 4.5 hits against the Rays.
- Victor Mesa Jr. enters with a hot bat for the Rays, blasting home runs in back-to-back games and in four of his last six overall. He’s around +700 to go deep.
- Junior Caminero has hit safely in four straight games and in 14 of his last 20. He’s -175 to keep that streak alive Monday.
