In this article, we’ll outline our best USA vs. Canada prediction for Thursday’s knockout stage clash, as well as the relevant betting notes for both teams, so you can place a winning wager with any of the best NHL betting sites.
The “Miracle on Ice” narrative was a little overplayed following Team USA’s Gold Medal victory in the Olympics, given that the American roster was a complete powerhouse from top to bottom. Thursday’s matchup appears to be a more logical time to tap into that narrative, as Matthew Tkachuk is the lone skater from the Olympic roster, and it was highly apparent in the group stage that the American roster lacked the majority of its top talents.
In this article, I’ll outline my best bet for Thursday’s knockout stage matchup between the USA and Canada, as well as the relevant betting notes for both teams.
USA vs. Canada prediction: Mark Scheifele to Score +190 (Play to +180)
Scheifele to score
Though Scheifele’s stats thus far in the tournament are not overly eye-popping, he’s looked quite threatening while recording three goals and five assists across seven games. Maybe there is a little added motivation for Scheifele in this tournament relative to some other skaters, given that he was arguably the best Canadian forward not to crack the Olympic team.
Scheifele generated 3.57 shots on goal per game and has been getting a lot of high-quality looks from the left circle on Canada’s stacked top power play unit.
Team USA’s penalty kill holds a success rate of just 78.5% in the tournament, and Scheifele should have a good chance of getting some more dangerous chances in this matchup playing on a top unit that has snapped the puck around quite effectively.
Canada’s second line of Scheifele, Robert Thomas and Gabriel Vilardi has shown strong chemistry thus far in the tournament. Thomas is one of the best playmakers in the world, while Scheifele and Vilardi are obviously quite comfortable together, and Scheifele’s role on the unit should help his chances of tallying his fourth of the tournament.
Team USA has allowed three goals against per game in the tournament, but that average is aided by allowing only two combined goals versus Great Britain and Austria. The team’s roster holds a lot of younger talents and a fairly weak defensive core, and Canada should have a good chance of managing a strong offensive output Thursday.
Scheifele has put up 75 goals over his last 164 games at the NHL level, and based on his role on the team and chance creation in the tournament, a price of +190 appears to be a solid bet to back him finding the back of the net Thursday.
USA vs Canada Odds
| USA moneyline odds | +350 |
| Canada moneyline odds | -450 |
| Puck Line odds | USA +1.5 (+135), Canada -1.5 (-160) |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-155), Under 5.5 (+135) |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Betting Team USA
The USA needed a win over Austria to extend their tournament Tuesday, after suffering losses to Switzerland, Finland and Latvia, and earning only two points against Germany for a shootout win.
Historically we have seen of hockey’s powerhouses offer relatively lethargic play in the group stage before making deep runs in the tournament, as the round-robin phase is a bit of a slog, and it’s usually realistic to coast into the knockout stage with a few off nights.
The USA already won the war in securing Olympic Gold, which possibly turned off some of its top skaters from heading overseas after a long season to compete in this tournament. Relative to the NHL talent that is left on the roster though, their play in the tournament still has to be viewed as a clear underachievement.
The overall depth is a big concern, and relative to Canada, the roster’s lack of talent at the critical center ice position is a huge concern.
Matt Coronato skated as the team’s top center versus Austria, while James Hagens and Max Sasson centered the second and third lines. That leaves them at a massive disadvantage versus Canada who will have Celebrini centering the first line, Thomas centering the second line, and Ryan O’Reilly centering the third unit.
This tournament has offered some talented young skaters to try and show their worth to Hockey USA’s brass. Ryan Leonard has had an impactful tournament and continues to build a reputation for dominating while playing for his country, while Nashville Predators defender Ryan Ufko has shown quite well on the back end.
Devin Cooley was quietly one of the best goaltenders in the NHL on a per-game basis this season, though he only played 31 games and was unproven prior to this season. He finished with a +17.3 GSAx rating and ranked ninth with a save percentage of .909 (minimum 20 starts).
Betting Team Canada
A win in this matchup certainly will not settle the score for Canada’s loss in the gold medal game in the Olympics, given that this tournament lacks the same meaning and that Team USA’s roster is a skeleton of what it would be with better participation. In some regards that places more pressure on Canada to dominate this matchup, as based on the talent on hand, it is expected to win this matchup comfortably.
While Canada’s blue line holds some mediocre NHL skaters, relative to the majority of lineups in this tournament, the roster is completely stacked and a worthy gold medal favorite. The forward corps in particular offers an excellent mix of experienced elite talents and strong role players, while Jet Greaves offers a solid starting option in goal.
Evan Bouchard, Thomas and Scheifele have all offered strong play in the tournament and are seemingly drawn inspiration from being deemed not good enough to crack the Olympic roster. Crosby and Celebrini have continued to dominate while wearing the Maple Leaf, while quality two-way forwards such as Dylan Holloway and Porter Martone have brought plenty of energy into each game.
Canada remains unbeaten in the tournament, with six regulation wins and a 33-13 goal differential. They had a bit of a hiccup in a sloppy performance versus Norway, but as we have discussed, the Round Robin phase of this tournament is a bit of a slog and can make it easy for top nations to get lackadaisical at times.
Jet Greaves will presumably get the start in this matchup. Greaves had a fantastic NHL campaign with a +16.5 GSAx and .908 save percentage across 55 appearances, and could realistically end up being one of the three netminders to crack the 2028 World Cup of Hockey roster.
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