Our Blue Jays vs. Twins prediction points to a low-scoring game in Thursday’s series opener at Target Field, with both starting pitchers in strong form and cool weather likely to favour the arms. Toronto has shown some recent progress as key players return, but Minnesota’s recent offensive slump and Kevin Gausman’s elite early-season numbers make the under the most appealing betting angle.
Blue Jays vs. Twins prediction
Under 8 runs scored: -115 @ bet365
Under 8 runs
The under 8 runs is a strong play in the series opener on Thursday night for a few reasons.
Firstly, both of the probable starting pitchers are in good form (more on this below in our probable starting pitchers section) and have excelled at limiting damage through their first handful of starts.
Secondly, cool evening temperatures at Target Field should help keep the ball in the ballpark, as cold weather usually favours the pitchers.
Thirdly, the Twins have averaged just 3.33 runs per game over their last six contests, and that number would be much lower if not for an 11-run outburst against Seattle on Monday. Regardless, the Twins are mired in an offensive funk right now, and it’s tough to imagine them breaking out against an elite pitcher like Gausman on Thursday night.
Toronto has been a below-average offensive team in the wake of many injuries to some of its top hitters, averaging just four runs per game (24th in majors).
Always be sure to shop around to find the most favourable odds at the best MLB betting sites before locking in your wagers.
Blue Jays vs. Twins odds
| Blue Jays moneyline odds | -135 |
| Twins moneyline odds | +115 |
| Run line odds | Blue Jays -1.5 (+125), Twins +1.5 (-150) |
| Game total | Over 8 runs (-105), Under 8 (-115) |
| Date/time | April 30, 7:40 p.m. ET |
Betting Toronto Blue Jays (14-16 SU, 12-18 ATS, 15-15 o/u)
The Blue Jays have some momentum coming into this series after taking two of three from the Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Guardians, and Los Angeles Angels in their last three series.
But more importantly, the team is slowly starting to get some healthy bodies back in the lineup after George Springer (toe) and Trey Yesavage (shoulder) returned earlier this week against Boston. However, their injury report remains quite extensive (see injury section below) heading into this series, and it should be an uphill battle for the next couple of weeks.
Toronto has struggled to produce offensively on the road to this point, averaging just 3.75 runs per game with a .659 team OPS (23rd in majors).
Betting Minnesota Twins (13-18 SU, 15-16 ATS, 18-12-1 o/u)
After a strong start to the season, the Twins have fallen back to reality by dropping four consecutive series to the Seattle Mariners, Tampa Bay Rays, New York Mets, and Cincinnati Reds. In fact, they’ve won just two of their last 13 games to fall to 13-18 on the season, flirting with the Kansas City Royals for the worst record in the AL Central.
Minnesota is averaging a respectable 4.7 runs per game (11th in majors), but it has also allowed 4.8 per game (22nd in MLB).
The Twins do excel at limiting home runs, though, as they’ve only coughed up 25 long balls through 31 games. Only the Pittsburgh Pirates have allowed fewer homers (24) to open the season.
Probable starting pitchers
Toronto: RHP Kevin Gausman (2-1, 2.57 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 9.77 K/9)
Gausman has been superb for the Blue Jays, allowing three earned runs or less in each of his six starts while throwing at least five innings in each of those outings.
His 37% chase rate ranks in the 94th percentile in the majors, and his elite walk rate of 4.3% also ranks in the 94th percentile.
Gausman’s splitter has been nearly untouchable this season, holding the opposition to a .164 batting average, a .220 xBA, and a .190 wOBA.
It should be noted that the right-hander struggled a bit in his two previous road starts this season, recording a 4.09 ERA while allowing opponents to hit a lofty .289 against him. It’s obviously an incredible small sample size, though.
Minnesota: RHP Bailey Ober (2-1, 3.94 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 7.59 K/9)
Like Gausman, Ober is also on a nice run to open the season, owning a very respectable 3.54 ERA across five starts this month.
He held the Tampa Bay Rays to two runs on three hits over six innings, marking the third consecutive start he’s thrown at least six frames.
Bettors should know that Ober is one of the softest tossers in the majors with an average fastball velocity of 89 mph, but he does excel at inducing weak contact (86.2 mph exit velocity) with his very effective changeup and other off-speed pitches.
Notable injuries
The following players are on the injured list for Toronto:
- OF Anthony Santander (shoulder)
- P Cody Ponce (knee)
- C Alejandro Kirk (thumb)
- P Jose Berrios (elbow)
- P Shane Bieber (elbow)
- P Yimi Garcia (elbow)
- P Bowden Francis (elbow)
- OF Addison Barger (ankle)
- OK Nathan Lukes (hamstring)
- P Max Scherzer (forearm)
The following players are on the injured list for Minnesota:
- P Pablo Lopez (elbow)
- P David Festa (shoulder)
- P Mick Abel (triceps)
- P Cody Laweryson (forearm)
- P Travis Adams (triceps)
- P Garrett Acton (shoulder)
Weather
Forecasts are calling for cool temperatures around 10 C and clear skies this evening at Target Field. Winds will be light and won’t play a factor, so factor that into your own Blue Jays vs. Twins prediction.
Blue Jays vs. Twins betting trends
- Toronto is 4-1 SU and 4-1 on the run line in its last five games.
- The Twins have hit the F5 moneyline in 11 of their last 13 home games.
- The Blue Jays have hit the F5 team total under in eight of their last 10 road games.
- The Twins have hit the team total over in 19 of their last 30 games.
Blue Jays vs. Twins player prop trends
- Gausman has allowed five hits or more in four straight starts and is -120 to allow over 4.5 hits on Thursday night.
- Luke Keaschall and Ryan Jeffers are both riding five-game hitting streaks into action against the Blue Jays. Keaschall is -180 to get a hit; Jeffers is -155.
- Keaschall has struck out at least once in six straight games and is -125 to record at least one strikeout on Thursday. He’s never faced Gausman before.
- Ober has allowed five hits or fewer in five of his six starts this season. He’s -160 to allow under 5.5 hits to Toronto.
- George Springer has some excellent career splits against Ober: three home runs, a .353 BA, and 1.294 OPS in 17 career at-bats. He’s +105 to record over 1.5 total bases and +400 to homer.