In this article, Canada Sports Betting’s Nick Martin breaks down two NHL player prop picks that provide value at online sportsbooks on March 16.
After a split on Thursday’s card, we enter the week sitting at +15.04 units on the season across 143 selections. Monday’s guide features a bet on Artemi Panarin in his return to Madison Square Garden, while we will also run back Thursday’s winning selection in a sneaky-good spot.
Check out my best NHL player prop bets for March 16 below and tail my picks at any of the top NHL betting sites in Canada.
Artemi Panarin Over 3.5 Shots on Goal: +135
Panarin over 3.5 SOG
Panarin will return to MSG for the first time since being dealt to the Los Angeles Kings on February 4th, and backing the dynamic winger to have a strong performance will certainly be a popular angle in the betting world. It does seem that this matchup is setting up as a good spot to expect Panarin to have an impactful performance, and I’m buying into the hype with our first selection.
Panarin has been productive since joining the Kings, as he has produced 12 points in his first 10 games with his new side. Though that may not have many bettors eying his shot prop, he has had an abnormally high amount of shot attempts miss the target of late, and in a spot where he should offer a strong performance, this prop is the one that appears to be the most undervalued.
Over the last 15 games, Panarin has averaged 7.33 shot attempts per game. The Rangers have allowed 31.72 shots against per 60 over the last 10 games, and Los Angeles’ top line of Panarin, Adrian Kempe, and Anze Kopitar should be able to generate plenty of chances in this matchup.
Across 112.4 minutes of play, the Panarin, Kempe, and Kopitar combination has generated 3.26 xGF/60, and 70.47 shot attempts per 60. They have shown strong chemistry of late and should be able to fare well versus a Rangers side that has been much less formidable defensively of late after being quite strong in that regard early on in the season
Jack Hughes + Jesper Bratt 1+ Point Each Parlay: -115
Hughes + Bratt to record a point
We outlined why this appeared to be a good bet on Thursday when the New Jersey Devils faced off against the Calgary Flames, and Hughes and Bratt combined for four points in what was another strong performance. They also each recorded a point in Saturday’s matchup versus the Kings.
The number has come down a hair compared to Thursday’s price of -110. Still, a price of -115 looks quite livable given the recent form of these two skaters and the high correlation of the two selections.
Hughes and Bratt are now skating on the same line at even strength, which was not the case for much of the previous 20 games. They also both appear to be playing at the level that was to be expected entering this season. For those reasons, it seems that a price of -115 seems quite appealing. If you look at comparable top-line stacks from Monday’s slate, it helps to illustrate the idea that their recent form and current correlation are not getting enough credit.
Hughes was not at his best when he initially returned from his hand injury, but he’s carried some momentum from his excellent showing at the Olympics into the NHL’s restart and has been playing at a very high level once again. Over the last six games, Bratt and Hughes have combined for 17 points, and are looking like the dynamic duo we all expected entering the year.
The Boston Bruins are actually underdogs in Monday’s matchup and do not appear to be as formidable as their record suggests, especially with Joonas Korpisalo starting in goal.
Boston earned a critical win Saturday over a Washington Capitals side that has looked completely flat offensively of late but allowed 27 shots on goal and required a number of tough saves from Jeremy Swayman to secure the win. Over the last 12 games, Boston has allowed 3.88 xGA/60 and 3.08 goals against per game where it counts and continues to look fairly unconvincing defensively.
Korpisalo holds an .892 save percentage, 3.28 GAA and -3.0 GSAx rating across 25 appearances this season. The gap between him and Swayman has been quite significant, and considering Korpisalo’s form and the Bruins’ poor defensive metrics, this does appear to be a sneaky-good spot to ride with the Hughes/Bratt stack once again.
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