In this article, Canada Sports Betting’s Nick Martin breaks down two NHL player prop picks that provide value at online sportsbooks on March 12.
We managed another slight winning night on Tuesday, as Alexis Lafreniere came through for us at +135, to record a profitable split. These prop guides are now up to +15.14 units on the season, and we can hopefully hit a new high water mark with a profitable set of picks Thursday.
Check out my best NHL player prop bets for March 12 below and tail my picks at any of the top NHL betting sites in Canada.
Jack Hughes + Jesper Bratt 1+ Point Each Parlay: -110
Hughes/Bratt points parlay
Of all 14 games on Thursday’s jam-packed NHL slate, the Calgary Flames matchup against the New Jersey Devils might be the least intriguing. While I understand that props from the more interesting games hold greater viewing value for readers, this prop looks to provide excellent value considering Calgary’s recent defensive play, with Hughes and Bratt both in good form of late and back on the same line at even strength.
It seems logical to conclude that the hand injury that had hampered Hughes’s play when he initially returned to the lineup is not hindering him to the same extent anymore. He’s put up 13 points over the last 10 games, which have been sandwiched between his excellent showing at the Olympics.
Bratt has looked like a skater with something to prove after receiving shockingly low usage from Swedish head coach Sam Hallam at the Olympics. He’s put up seven points over the last seven games and has looked more like the dominant playmaking force we have become accustomed to seeing over the previous three seasons.
Hughes and Bratt’s recent production has been aided by some soft matchups, but that’s less of a concern given that Thursday’s matchup is once again versus a pure bottom-feeder. The Flames have allowed 3.70 goals against per game over the last 10 matchups, and have looked even less formidable to start this road trip with MacKenzie Weegar and Nazem Kadri now off the roster.
It’s undoubtedly been a disappointing season for both Hughes and Bratt, but their offensive play has looked more at the level we would have expected of late. Considering how favourable Thursday’s matchup is, it seems that their previous form and the fact that they have not consistently been together at even strength of late is holding this play up at a very playable price.
Alexis Lafreniere Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: +160
Lafreniere over 2.5 SOG
We outlined this bet in our most recent player prop article on Tuesday, when Lafreniere was priced at +135 to record over 2.5 shots on goal versus the lowly Flames. While the Winnipeg Jets offer a more strenuous matchup for Lafreniere to continue his recent heater, it’s still quite surprising to see this number bump all the way up +160 after another fantastic performance from Lafreniere on Tuesday.
Lafreniere recorded a hat trick on Tuesday and finished with five shots on goal from 10 shot attempts. Over the last four games, Lafreniere has recorded seven shot attempts per game and four shots on goal per game.
While Lafreniere’s historic shooting volume suggests this is somewhat of a high-water mark, it’s not often that we have seen him line up as the Rangers’ clear-cut number-one winger and receive usage on the top power play.
New York’s current top line of Gabriel Perreault, Mika Zibanejad, and Lafreniere has displayed excellent chemistry in the offensive zone of late. Across 51.6 minutes of play, the trio holds a 60.4% expected goal share and has scored 4.65 goals per 60 where it counts.
Over the last 10 games, the Jets have allowed 27.68 shots against per 60. They play a fairly low event style and are a much more difficult matchup than the Flames, but that is well compensated for given how much longer the price for this bet is Thursday than it was Tuesday, especially considering Lafreniere’s performance in Tuesday’s matchup.
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