Throughout the first three quarters of the season, the Edmonton Oilers have been one of the NHL’s more disappointing sides. Though the Oilers also struggled at times in the previous two regular seasons before reaching the Stanley Cup Final, this year’s concerns in goal and further down the lineup card have been even more pronounced than usual.
Friday’s matchup versus a red-hot Carolina Hurricanes side comes at a very interesting time, given that the Oilers made a pair of moves ahead of the deadline to help shore up their defensive play and penalty kill in particular by acquiring Connor Murphy and Jason Dickinson.
The Oilers’ elite stars are doing their best to help the team overcome numerous other flaws, having all offered incredible production of late. Over the last 15 games, the Oilers have averaged 4.07 goals per game, and contrary to a team like Carolina, the vast majority of that production has involved Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Evan Bouchard.
We cashed our same-game parlay on the Oilers matchup versus the Ottawa Senators Tuesday night at +390, and it seems logical to keep it square and bank on a similar type of game Friday, where Carolina exposes some of Edmonton’s defensive concerns while the Oilers’ elite talents are forced to try and compensate.
Our same-game parlay is priced at +425 at the time of writing and is also eligible for our top-ranked NHL betting site, bet365’s 50% parlay boost for Friday’s NHL slate.
- Carolina Hurricanes Over 2.5 Goals (-240 as a straight)
- Sebastian Aho/Andrei Svechnikov 1+ Point Each (-105 as a two-leg parlay)
- Connor McDavid Over 1.5 Total Points (-120 as a straight bet)
- Evan Bouchard Over 0.5 Points (-230 as a straight bet)
Leg 1: Carolina Hurricanes Over 2.5 Total Goals (-240 as a straight)
While the acquisitions of Murphy and Dickinson are not flashy, they should still help an Oilers side that is desperate to simply tread water in the minutes where their top skaters are not on the ice. The Chicago Blackhawks’ penalty kill has been excellent this year, and they have both been a big part of that success, while defensively, they have hung in respectably while playing a ton of minutes versus opposing superstars.
With respect to those additions, the greatest issue for the team remains unsolved, being that goaltenders Tristan Jarry and Connor Ingram both look highly unconvincing.
Over the last 15 games, the Hurricanes are 11-2-2 and have scored 3.73 goals per game. As has always been the case throughout head coach Rod Brind’Amour’s tenure, they feature a furious forecheck and tend to pour tons of shots on target on a nightly basis. Those two strengths will offer a tough test for the Oilers, who struggle to manage pucks in the defensive zone and are not receiving effective play in goal.
Maybe the Oilers show some progress in terms of goal suppression in the near future, but backing Carolina to score at least three goals in this matchup seems to be a safe opening leg and sets up the rest of our parlay effectively.
Legs 2 and 3: Sebastian Aho/Andrei Svechnikov 1+ Point Each (-105 as a two-leg parlay)
Carolina’s top line of Aho, Svechnikov and Seth Jarvis has consistently generated a ton of scoring chances this season, and their strong recent production comes as no surprise considering the strong combination of talent on the unit. They have outscored opponents 21 to 13 this season, and scored 3.19 goals per 60 across 395.6 minutes of play.
Including Jarvis to get a point in this stack is an option, but going with Svechnikov instead seems to provide greater value on the latest NHL odds. Svechnikov is priced at -165 to record a point as a straight, while Jarvis is priced at -195. However, they have similar usage, and Svechnikov leads the team with 22 points over the last 20 games.
Carolina’s power play has also been effective of late, and Aho and Svechnikov both play together on the top unit. Edmonton’s deadline pickups will help the penalty kill, but as they say, the most important player on any penalty kill is the goaltender, and Jarry remains a concern in that regard.
Leg 4: Connor McDavid Over 1.5 Total Points (-120 as a straight bet)
It feels as though most Oilers’ games continue to follow the same game script. McDavid, Draisaitl, Bouchard, and the other top talents are forced to play a ton of minutes to offset the team’s issues elsewhere in the lineup. It doesn’t seem likely that it will change on Friday, given a deep Hurricanes roster that has been in excellent form.
While Carolina is strong defensively, it’s proven to be extremely tough for any team to keep McDavid in check over the last two months. The Hurricanes have still allowed 2.64 goals against per game over the last ten games. That’s a strong mark, but not one that scares me off of backing McDavid to record two points at -120, considering his recent production. He was priced at -120 to record two points on Tuesday versus a dominant defensive side, the Senators, and did record two assists.
After a spectacular showing at the Olympics, McDavid has recorded nine points in his first four games back with the Oilers. Over the last 35 games he’s recorded 69 points and recorded over 1.5 points 62.9% of the time.
The start of McDavid’s incredible tear coincided with the returns of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman, and the three have once again formed an incredibly dominant unit at even strength, while the Oilers’ power play has been historically strong since that point, and all of those strengths remain in place entering this matchup.
Leg 5: Evan Bouchard Over 0.5 Points (-230 as a straight bet)
My thoughts on adding this final leg remain the same as they were Tuesday night. While I would not bet Bouchard to record a point at -230 as a straight, it moves the price of the parlay from +310 to +425, which does seem to be enough of an adjustment to add it in, given that we are counting on two points from McDavid.
After a poor start to the season, Bouchard has been in tremendous form, and has even started to minimize has mistakes defensively to a greater extent. While his offensive play is not as eye-popping as that of defenders such as Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes, he shows strong poise in making simple passes to skaters such as McDavid and Draisaitl, and no other defender on the team is remotely as adept at maximizing the skill sets of the team’s elite offensive skaters.
Bouchard has put up 42 points over the last 30 games and has had just seven pointless games in that span. He’s in line for assists on a ton of scoring chances on a nightly basis, and is obviously capable of utiziling his own quality shot to chip in offence, which is one of the reasons entirely shutting down the Oilers top power play remains so difficult.