The 2026 World Baseball Classic kicks off March 4 with star-studded rosters primed for drama, spotlighting the MVP race where Aaron Judge (+750) and Shohei Ohtani (+1100) lead betting odds.
In this World Baseball Classic MVP predictions guide, we analyze value plays such as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+2200) based on pool matchups, team paths to the finals, and past tournament heroics to help you bet smart ahead of this event.
World Baseball Classic Value MVP Predictions
Shohei Ohtani (+1100)
Ohtani won MVP honours at the 2023 World Baseball Classic as a two-way player for Japan, and we’re getting tremendous value at +1100 odds this time around.
So why are his odds so long to win the World Baseball Classic MVP in 2026? Well, he’s not going to pitch at this year’s event, which definitely hurts his chances to an extent. However, his international superstar appeal is like no other, and his big bat alone can easily help propel him to a second consecutive MVP.
As of Wednesday morning, Japan has the second-shortest odds (+300) to win the event behind the USA (+140), setting the stage for a potential final between the two storied baseball nations. Japan has the most handle (41.7%) at BetMGM in WBC outright odds, suggesting the betting public believes Japan is likely to defend its title.
As far as MVP market insights go, 8.6% of tickets and 9.9% of the handle at BetMGM are on Ohtani to win MVP at +1100 odds.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (+2200)
Guerrero Jr. holds incredible value to win MVP at +2200 odds if you believe the Dominican Republic (+425 odds) can win the event. With the third-shortest outright odds, the Dominican Republic is a popular outright underdog play at most online sportsbooks, with the Caribbean nation accounting for 23.1% of tickets and 15.7% of the handle at BetMGM.
Guerrero Jr. is fresh off a World Series appearance with the Toronto Blue Jays and that big-game experience should help him carry over success to the World Baseball Classic. He’s posted a lofty .944 OPS through five spring training games, which suggests he’s already tearing the cover off the ball, and the hulking first baseman will definitely have something to prove after coming up just short in the World Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Guerrero Jr. to win WBC MVP
Juan Soto (+2800)
Following the same line of thinking in backing the Dominican Republic to win it all, Soto also holds tremendous value in the WBC MVP market at 28-1 odds. One of the most consistent and feared hitters across MLB over the past eight seasons, Soto has the potential to do just as much damage with the bat as his countryman Guerrero Jr., if not more.
Boasting a .948 career OPS over eight big-league seasons, Soto already has a World Series title and six Silver Slugger Awards to his credit, but you can bet he’s hungry to claim a WBC title and MVP honours to round out his impressive list of baseball accolades.
Ronald Acuna Jr. (+3300)
You can make an argument that, when healthy, Acuna Jr. is the most well-rounded baseball player in the world. A true five-tool player, Acuna Jr. is a shrewd long shot pick to win World Baseball Classic MVP at 33-1 odds. Of course, this pick hinges on Venezuela (+900 to win the event) having a deep run to the final, but it’s certainly possible given that the nation has the fourth-shortest odds to win it all and an impressive roster full of MLB talent.
BetMGM currently has Acuna Jr.’s odds as long as 40-1 to win WBC MVP, so shop around before locking in this dark horse to claim MVP honours.
Acuna Jr. to win WBC MVP
World Baseball Classic MVP Odds (top 10)
| Player | Odds |
| Aaron Judge (USA) | +750 |
| Shohei Ohtani (Japan) | +1100 |
| Kyle Schwarber (USA) | +1600 |
| Paul Skenes (USA) | +1600 |
| Bryce Harper (USA) | +1800 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (USA) | +2000 |
| Gunnar Henderson (USA) | +2000 |
| Logan Webb (USA) | +2000 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Dominican Republic) | +2200 |
| Juan Soto (Dominican Republic) | +2800 |
Previous World Baseball Classic MVP winners
| Year | Player | Position | Team |
| 2006 | Daisuke Matsuzaka | Pitcher | Japan |
| 2009 | Daisuke Matsuzaka | Pitcher | Japan |
| 2013 | Robinson Cano | Infielder | Dominican Republic |
| 2017 | Marcus Stroman | Pitcher | USA |
| 2023 | Shohei Ohtani | Two-way player | Japan |
Historically, pitchers have had an edge when it comes to winning MVP at the World Baseball Classic, with hurlers claiming four of the five MVP awards (Ohtani pitched and hit in the 2023 WBC) at the event.
However, it’s important for bettors to understand the modern shift in analytics and workload in regards to starting pitchers these days. Many MLB teams have put restrictions on their highly coveted pitchers participating in this year’s event, which will handcuff WBC managers when it comes to deploying some of the top arms on their respective rosters. You can expect to see a more committee approach when it comes to pitching at the WBC, with several pitchers sharing the workload on a game-by-game basis.
WBC rosters can include 30 players, more than the maximum of 26 that is allowed in MLB. Most nations have elected to fill those additional four roster spots with mostly relief pitchers, which means the odds of a single pitcher standing out at this year’s WBC are drastically lessened.
It’s important to note that all five of the previous WBC MVPs played for the winning nation of those particular events. So it’s not surprising that seven of the eight players with the shortest WBC MVP odds are representing the United States, which is favoured to win the event at +140.