Monday’s 8:15 p.m. ET NFL kickoff at the Caesars Superdome pits two 1-2 NFC South clubs against each other, with New Orleans priced as a 1-point home favourite. The lean here is New Orleans -1, though Atlanta’s offence has looked markedly different since Michael Penix Jr. took over at quarterback, making the spread closer than the number suggests.
Atlanta arrives off a 35-14 road win over Green Bay in Penix’s season debut, while New Orleans is coming off a 35-27 home loss to Las Vegas in which the Saints allowed six total touchdown passes to tight ends, tying a league record.
Be sure to check out the best NFL betting sites before locking in any wagers on Monday Night Football.
Falcons vs. Saints predictions
- New Orleans -1: The Saints are at home coming off a loss, a common bounce-back spot, and quarterback Tyler Shough has been one of the more productive passers in the league through three weeks, including a four-touchdown outing last week.
- Under 47.5 points: Both defences have shown vulnerabilities, but Atlanta’s front seven has generated pressure all season, and a short week for New Orleans’s banged-up linebacker corps could slow a Saints offence that has leaned heavily on touchdowns through the air.
- Michael Penix Jr. over 225.5 passing yards (-115): Penix threw for 256 yards and a touchdown in his first start and now faces a Saints defence missing four key front-seven and linebacker contributors.
- Chris Olave over 6.5 receptions (-130): Olave has been Shough’s clear top target all season, posting a career-high 182-yard game in Week 1 and 107 yards most recently, against a Falcons secondary that has been middle-of-the-pack against the pass.
Falcons vs. Saints odds
| Market | Odds |
|---|---|
| Falcons moneyline | +105 |
| Saints moneyline | -125 |
| Spread | Saints -1 (-115), Falcons +1 (-105) |
| Game total | Over 47.5 (-110), Under 47.5 (-110) |
| Date/time | Oct. 5, 8:15 p.m. ET |
| Venue | Caesars Superdome, New Orleans |
About the Falcons (1-2, 1-2 ATS, 1-2 o/u)
Atlanta’s season turned when Penix took the field. The Falcons opened with a 20-13 loss at Pittsburgh and a 34-3 loss to Carolina with Cooper Rush and undrafted rookie Jack Strand at quarterback, ranking last in the league in passing offence through two weeks. Penix made his 2026 debut in Week 3 after recovering from a torn ACL, completing 18 of 25 passes for 256 yards and a touchdown as Atlanta won 35-14 at Green Bay. Running back Bijan Robinson scored twice in that game, and receiver Drake London finished with 194 receiving yards.
Robinson has been the engine of the offence regardless of who has played quarterback, and the Falcons will again be without starting right tackle Kaleb McGary, who is dealing with a knee injury.
About the Saints (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 o/u)
New Orleans has been competitive in every game but has found ways to come up short. The Saints lost 31-30 in overtime to Detroit in Week 1 despite 410 yards and three touchdowns from Shough, then earned a comeback road win over Baltimore in Week 2 for their first victory of the season. Last week, Shough threw four touchdown passes to tight ends Juwan Johnson and Noah Fant in a 35-27 home loss to Las Vegas, a game in which the two teams combined for six tight end touchdowns.
Olave has been the Saints’ most consistent weapon, leading the NFL in receiving yards early in the season and posting at least 107 yards in each of his last two outings. New Orleans will be shorthanded on defence, with linebackers Kaden Elliss and Pete Werner and edge rushers Carl Granderson and Anfernee Jennings all held out of Thursday’s practice.
Betting Mismatch
New Orleans is converting 81.8 per cent of its red-zone trips this season, but its defence has been generous, allowing 35 points in back-to-back weeks. Atlanta’s defence has quietly ranked among the league’s better units in several efficiency metrics and now faces a Saints front seven missing four key contributors.
Atlanta’s offensive line, however, is down its starting right tackle for a second straight week, which could allow New Orleans’s healthier edge rushers to pressure Penix in his second career start since returning from injury.
Key Injuries
Atlanta will be without McGary for a second consecutive week. Defensive end Za’Darius Smith is resting on a scheduled day off, while linebacker Divine Deablo and defensive end Samson Ebukam, both nursing hamstring injuries, were limited in practice.
New Orleans is dealing with a thinner front seven and linebacker group than it has all season. Elliss, Werner, Granderson and Jennings did not practice Thursday. Safety Julian Blackmon, receiver Barion Brown, Fant and defensive lineman Christen Miller were all limited.
Weather
The game is played indoors at the Caesars Superdome, removing weather as a factor for Monday night’s total or spread.
Betting Trends
- Both teams enter at 1-2, with the Falcons winning their last game by three touchdowns and the Saints losing theirs by eight points.
- Atlanta leads the all-time series 58-56 and won the most recent meeting 19-17 in Week 18 of last season.
- New Orleans has allowed at least 27 points in two of its last three games.
- Atlanta has scored at least 20 points in each of its last two games since Penix took over at quarterback.
Player Prop Trends
- Penix passing touchdowns, over (check current line): Penix threw a touchdown in his lone start this season and faces a Saints defence that allowed six touchdown passes to tight ends alone last week.
- Olave receiving yards, over (check current line): Olave has topped 100 receiving yards in two of three games this season.
- Robinson anytime touchdown: Robinson has scored in his most recent outing and has been the focal point of Atlanta’s offence regardless of quarterback.
- Johnson or Fant anytime touchdown: The pair combined for four touchdown passes last week, and with Atlanta’s top edge rushers banged up, New Orleans could again lean on its red-zone connection with Shough.
