NHL Player Prop Picks For March 3

In this article, Canada Sports Betting’s Nick Martin breaks down the top two NHL player prop picks that appear to hold strong value at online sportsbooks from the heavy 12-game card on March 3.

After two strong months, March started in poor fashion as we lost what was ultimately our only pick on Shayne Gostisbehere to record a point on Monday. Tuesday’s card looks quite appealing, and hopefully we can get our seasonal record of +14.63 units moving back in the right direction.

Egor Chinakhov Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: +140

Chinakhov is a skater that we have been talking about often of late in these player prop guides, as well as our anytime goal-scorer guides. Considering Chinakhov’s skillset and current roles on the Pittsburgh Penguins, it’s hard for me to see why oddsmakers are reluctant to give him much respect.

Over the last 12 games, Chinakhov has put up seven goals and three assists and recorded over 2.5 shots on goal eight times. He’s got an excellent release and is capable of beating goalies from distance, and has also scored some pretty goals off of the rush during his brief tenure with the Penguins.

The combination of Evgeni Malkin, Tommy Novak, and Chinakhov has been fantastic for the Penguins this season, and is a key reason why the team may continue to hang in respectably with Sidney Crosby out of the lineup.

Across 161.8 minutes of play, the unit holds a 59.8% expected goal share and has generated 4.08 xGF/60. They have also outscored opponents 12-7 where it counts.

The effectiveness of the unit is a key reason that Chinakhov’s recent shot volume seems sustainable, as it should mean he continues to garner solid usage and spend much of his time on the ice attacking in the offensive zone.

A matchup versus the Boston Bruins sets up as a good time to go back to this prop. While Boston holds a strong record, it has leaned heavily on a combination of elite goaltending and clinical finishing in order to find success and, on average, allows opposing shooters a lot of chances.

Over the last 15 games, the Bruins have allowed 28.89 shots against per 60. We should see a competitive game Tuesday in which Penguins head coach Dan Muse uses the Malkin line consistently, and the unit should have a good chance of creating lots of scoring chances in those minutes.

Leo Carlsson/Cutter Gauthier 1+ Point Each Parlay: +100

While missing the Olympics was surely a massive disappointment for Carlsson, the break did come at a good time in that it allowed him to get fully healthy ahead of the stretch run. Carlsson’s offensive form fell off in the middle part of the season, but he’s come out of the break on fire, having put up five points in three games.

Playing alongside the Ducks’ best pure goal-scorer, Cutter Gauthier, has also seemingly helped Carlsson return in strong form. The two have not spent much time together this season, but they have played together alongside Chris Kreider over the last three games, and, in a small sample, the unit has been dominant.

Across 31.2 minutes of play, Carlsson, Gauthier, and Kreider have played to a 61.2% expected goal share and generated 4.43 xGF/60. They have also outscored opponents 3-0 where it counts.

Carlsson and Gauthier also play together on the Ducks’ top power-play unit, which has succeeded on 27.6% of opportunities over the last 10 games. While Carlsson was only in the lineup for four of those games, his presence obviously does help the top unit, and makes this stack fully correlated.

The Colorado Avalanche are a difficult matchup for production, but they will be playing the second leg of a back-to-back Tuesday, and have been much less dominant defensively of late having allowed 3.20 goals against per game over the last 15 matchups.

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