Join Canada Sports Betting’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player prop picks available from Friday’s four-game slate.
Thursday’s NHL player props guide finished slightly in the negatives with a 1-1 split, snapping an 11-card run featuring no losing slates. Friday’s card offers some strong options, so hopefully we can snap the losing skid at one. Our record now stands at +17.63 units across 123 selections this season, and I’d like to thank our readers for their continued support.
Carter Verhaeghe Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: -105
Verhaeghe over 2.5 SOG
Over the last 10 games, Verhaeghe has averaged 3.5 shots on goal and 6.2 shot attempts per game. During parts of that run, the Panthers lineup was much thinner than it will be in Friday’s matchup, and in a few of those games, Verhaeghe was on the top power-play unit, which will not be the case in Friday’s matchup.
Over the last two games, in particular, Verhaeghe has averaged only 12:51 of ice time, which suggests usage is a significant concern. However, it seems logical to conclude that in Thursday’s blowout win over the Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Paul Maurice was also managing minutes to set his side more favourably for the second leg of the back-to-back. In the previous game, the Panthers were also blown out and Verhaeghe was called for a 10-minute misconduct.
So while Verhaeghe will not play quite as many minutes now that the Panthers’ depth looks strong once again, I’m not sold that the last two games are an accurate depiction of how significant the dropoff will be.
Verhaeghe is still in a strong role at even strength playing alongside Sam Reinhart and Evan Rodrigues. The trio has played to a 60.9% expected goal share across 166.9 minutes of play this season, which is the best mark of any Panthers unit that has played at least 50 minutes together.
While the Buffalo Sabres have been on fire where it counts, much of their recent success has come down to excellent goaltending and timely goal-scoring. In 19 games since January 1st, the Sabres have allowed 28.99 shots against per 60 at even strength but have masked that flaw with a .921 save percentage.
Kyle Connor Over 3.5 Shots on Goal: +120
Connor over 3.5 SOG
It’s a wild thing to say regarding a team that won the Presidents’ Trophy last season with 116 points, but the Winnipeg Jets are among the league’s most one-dimensional teams. The team’s top trio of Connor, Mark Scheifele, and Gabriel Vilardi has outscored opponents 40-29 at even strength this season, and the three have combined for 182 points.
With Nino Niederreiter currently week-to-week, the team’s offensive depth is even more of a concern entering Friday’s matchup.
To some extent, it’s commentary that has to be made, but the top skaters on the team have noted coming out of the break the legitimate belief that a push for the playoffs is possible. Though it is a long shot, sweeping their upcoming games versus the Anaheim Ducks, San Jose Sharks, and Chicago Blackhawks would actually put them loosely back in the soft Western Conference playoff race.
Over the last four games, Connor has averaged 23:41 of ice time, and until the Jets are entirely out of the playoff mix, it seems logical to expect head coach Scott Arniel will still offer huge minutes to his top stars in an effort to mask the team’s many other issues.
Connor has been productive of late, as he enters this matchup in the midst of a six-game point streak and has poured 23 shots on target. Over the last 11 games, he’s recorded over 3.5 shots on goal seven times and has averaged 6.3 attempts per game.
The Ducks came out of the break with a matchup versus the Edmonton Oilers that looked like a full-blown game of shinny. Head coach Joel Quenneville will surely be pressing his side to clean it up defensively in Friday’s matchup, but the Ducks simply are not a team that wins games based on strong defence.
They have allowed 28.55 shots against per 60 this season and have pretty consistently played a high-event brand of hockey.
It may not be enough to lead the Jets to an upset win, but Winnipeg’s top line should be able to generate plenty of chances in this matchup, and will likely be counted on to play huge minutes versus a Ducks side that is not adept at shutting down opposing superstars.
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