Coming out of the reset, the Toronto Maple Leafs trail the Boston Bruins by six points for the final NHL Eastern Conference playoff spot. Winning three straight games prior to the break has kept their faint playoff hopes on life support, but it’s still going to take a special run to sneak in at this point.
We could potentially see a little more volatility around the league coming out of the long Olympic break in the season. There’s never an ideal time to face the high-powered Lightning this season, but perhaps playing them at a time where both sides may exhibit a little rust could be favourable for the Maple Leafs, who are priced as heavy underdogs at +185.
Our NHL same game parlay prices out at +650 prior to bet365‘s 30% same game parlay boost, which is available to the majority of users for any matchup from Wednesday’s eight-game slate.
- William Nylander Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+160 straight bet odds)
- Brayden Point Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+175 straight bet odds)
- Toronto Maple Leafs +2.5 puck line (-300 straight bet odds)
Nick’s Maple Leafs/Lightning SGP
Leg 1: William Nylander Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
Backing Nylander to record over 2.5 shots on goal made the cut for Wednesday’s player prop piece, and I’m certainly eager to double-dip and use this leg to lead off our parlay.
Nylander is obviously a proven goal-scorer who’s put up 103 goals over the last 204 games. In general, he’s the type of skater I want to give leniency to in this market even when recent volume is down a little. His shot volume is down this season relative to usual, but he’s picked it up late in recording over 2.5 shots on goal in six of his last 10 appearances, which is a tremendous hit rate for a bet priced at +160.
What’s especially interesting is that out of the games in which Nylander has failed to record three shots on target over the last 10 games, there is a fairly clear explanation why in three of the four matchups, or arguably even all four.
On January 15th in Vegas, Nylander recorded only one shot after being injured early in the first, finishing with just 2:17 of ice time. On January 13th, the Utah Mammoth completely dominated the Toronto Maple Leafs, who were in a nightmare spot, and Nylander recorded only one shot on target. In his initial return from injury on January 10th, he recorded only one shot across 13:16 of ice time. In the game in which Nylander was originally injured on December 27th, he played only 8:27 while recording one shot.
It’s been presumed that Nylander was still dealing with a nagging injury at the Olympics, as he did not participate in any of Sweden’s practices. Still, he looked fine during games, recording 17 shots and four points across five matchups. It’s been a week since Sweden lost in the quarterfinals to Team USA, and that time off should prove beneficial for Nylander.
Tampa Bay is an excellent defensive team, but that is accounted for by this price. Nylander was priced at +145 to record over 2.5 shots on goal in his most recent matchup versus the Edmonton Oilers. Given that he’s recorded 11 shots over the last three games, the bump in price certainly seems to be enough to compensate for the tough matchup, and I’m not entirely sold that Tampa Bay will be as stingy and organized defensively on Wednesday as it typically is following the long layoff.
Leg 2: Brayden Point Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
The level of play Point may offer in this game feels a little more volatile than our initial pick in Nylander. But the pick comes from the same vein, in that for the majority of Point’s career shot prop bettors would have jumped at the opportunity to get Point at a price anywhere close to +175.
It’s been an up-and-down season for Point, who at times has not looked like his regular self and who reportedly was playing through a fairly notable injury earlier on in the campaign, prior to the current one, which has kept him out of the lineup since January 12th and ultimately off of Canada’s Olympic roster.
Though it surely was hard on Point to miss the Olympics, it undoubtedly helps set him up more effectively for the stretch run of the season, and playing on a full-fledged Stanley Cup contender provides a strong silver lining.
Point had put up six goals and 15 points over his final 13 games before suffering the injury and was really starting to pick up steam after a poor start to the year. His shot volume was still down in that span as he recorded over 2.5 shots on goal in just five of those matchups, but that’s actually still a solid hit rate for a prop expected to hit 36% of the time.
It also does seem reasonable to move the needle a little based on the expectation that a refreshed version of Point may offer volume closer to his career average moving forward, and the Leafs do offer an excellent matchup for Point to have a greater output of chances on goal in Wednesday’s matchup.
Toronto has allowed 32.52 shots against per 60 over the last 15 games, and holds an expected goal share of 44.84% in that span. It spends a lot of time playing in the defensive zone, and Tampa Bay’s top stars will likely create a fair share of looks in this game.
Leg 3: Toronto Maple Leafs alternate puck line +2.5
This is the leg that I have the least conviction towards and the only one that I will not be betting personally as a straight. However, to unlock bet365’s 30% boost, users need to come up with a third leg. Therefore I’m willing to add this one to our framework, as my lean is that a desperate Leafs side finds a way to keep this game somewhat close relative to oddsmakers’ expectations.
Aside from potential concerns that Auston Matthews may not be at his best in this matchup after a busy week, this spot seems to favour a Leafs side in desperate pursuit of points compared to a Lightning group coasting towards a division win. They closed out the break in impressive form with a 5-2 win in Edmonton, making it three straight and providing a little momentum towards their desperate pursuit of a playoff spot.
Tampa Bay is obviously worthy of being a fairly heavy favourite here, but it seems reasonable to believe a desperate Leafs side can keep this one moderately competitive and at least be in a one-goal game heading towards an empty-net situation.
If you personally had a third leg that you love, dropping this one is a valid option, but I’m comfortable enough with it use it to round out our parlay and earn the 30% boost.
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