The Columbus Blue Jackets have played to a record of 6-1-0 since appointing Rick Bowness as head coach and will look to keep rolling in Friday evening’s lone NHL matchup when they take on the Chicago Blackhawks. Despite the Blue Jackets’ recent tear, they are 10 points back of the final playoff spot with three games in hand, making this favourable matchup a near must-win.
The Blackhawks, meanwhile, will be looking to snap a four-game losing skid as they return home to the United Center, where they hold a record of 11-13-5 this season.
It seems likely that Spencer Knight will face a tough workload on Friday evening, and we will be targeting two Blue Jackets forwards who have been in strong form under Bowness to go over their shot prop totals. Connor Bedard also appears to be trending in the right direction following an offensive slump, and we will be backing him to score to round out our parlay, which prices out at +675 at the time of writing.
- Adam Fantilli Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
- Charlie Coyle Over 1.5 Shots on Goal
- Connor Bedard Anytime Goalscorer
Blue Jackets vs. Blackhawks Same Game Parlay
Leg 1: Adam Fantilli Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
Over the last ten games, the Blackhawks have an expected-goals share of 42.47% and have allowed 30.47 shots against per 60. Over the entirety of the season, they rank last in expected goal share and 29.79 shots against per 60.
It seems logical to expect a spirited performance from the red-hot Blue Jackets in this favourable scheduling spot, as they take on a Blackhawks side playing back-to-back and for the third time in four nights. While Columbus will likely control much of the play, Knight has been tremendous this season, which should help keep the game close and force the Blue Jackets to keep pressing for offence against a Blackhawks side that has been leaky defensively.
We outlined why Fantilli looked to be a strong bet to record over 2.5 shots on goal in Wednesday’s matchup versus the Philadelphia Flyers, and he came through for us, recording four shots on goal from a high total of eight attempts. In what should be a much more favourable matchup for shot volume, it seems fitting to keep riding with Fantilli.
Fantilli leads all Blue Jackets forwards in averaging 19:32 of time on ice in the seven matchups that Bowness has been in charge. He’s recorded six points in that span and averaged 3.42 shots on goal per game. He’s also averaged 5.28 attempts per game.
Fantilli has been skating at even strength on a highly effective top line alongside Kirill Marchenko and Mason Marchment. The unit has outscored opponents eight to four and holds a 57.6% expected goal share. They should fare well in this matchup, and it seems likely that in a moderately competitive game script, Bowness will continue to lean heavily on his top trio.
Leg 2: Charlie Coyle Over 1.5 Shots on Goal
As outlined, it seems quite reasonable to expect a hefty output of shots on goal from the Blue Jackets in this matchup, and it seems like a good spot to double-dip on Blue Jackets shooters and hope for a game script where Knight is razor-sharp in goal.
Coyle has been one of the many Blue Jackets skaters that has looked considerably more threatening since the coaching change. He has put up five goals and nine points in seven games under Bowness, skating on what has been a highly effective third line alongside Cole Sillinger and Mathieu Olivier, as well as the team’s top power play.
Targeting Coyle to score or record a point is also a very reasonable option, but at -130 backing him to record two shots appears to hold standalone value and is my favourite prop involving Coyle. He’s averaged 3.14 shots on goal per game under Bowness, and 4.57 attempts per game.
Coyle should have a good chance of getting some looks on the top power play unit, while the Blue Jackets’ third line should skate in some very winnable matchups versus a thin Blackhawks roster in this matchup. Coyle, Sillinger, and Olivier have generated 65.21 shot attempts per 60 this season, and the majority of those have come from Coyle.
Leg 3: Connor Bedard Anytime Goalscorer
While it does seem likely that the Blue Jackets will control much of the play in this matchup, by no means have they been a defensive juggernaut this season. While the results have been great where it matters under Bowness, the Blue Jackets have still allowed 3.96 xGA/60 during his tenure as head coach, the fourth-highest rate in the league over that span.
We backed Bedard to score in Thursday’s anytime goalscorers parlay piece, based on the belief that he would bounce back offensively in the near future, considering how many chances he had been creating. While the Blackhawks were absolutely dominated by the Pittsburgh Penguins on Thursday night, Bedard’s performance was positive. He had some strong sequences early on in the contest, before finally snapping his goal drought with a beauty in garbage time.
Over the last seven games, Bedard has generated 4.03 individual expected goals from a total of 43 attempts. He still has very little help on a barren Blackhawks roster, but that hasn’t stopped one of the game’s better shooters from getting quality looks off.
A Bedard goal would help the chances of a strong game script for our previous two props, and given that the Blue Jackets still look quite shaky defensively and are playing a high-event style, I’m happy to round out our parlay by backing Bedard to score in Friday’s matchup.