The Montreal Canadiens and Boston Bruins will renew their storied NHL rivalry Saturday in a nationally broadcast showdown on Hockey Night in Canada.
While it’s always exciting when these bitter rivals face off, Saturday’s matchup carries a little extra weight as the Canadiens and Bruins are separated by only three points in the ultra-competitive Atlantic Division standings. The Bruins have gained a little ground on the Canadiens recently, playing to a record of 8-2-0 over the last 10 games, while in the same span Montreal is 6-3-1.
Our two-leg same game parlay comes out to +440 at the time of writing, targeting a somewhat low-scoring game ending in a tie through regulation.
- Regulation Tie
- Under 7.5 Goals
Nick’s Habs/Bruins SGP
Leg 1: Regulation Tie
We backed last Saturday’s Canadiens game to end in a tie at a long price of +320, and it seems logical to go back to the well with this matchup once again priced at +320 (straight bet odds) to end in a tie.
Games have required overtime at a historic rate during the 2025-26 NHL season, which rightfully has drawn much more attention to the idea of a 3-2-1 point system, which would seemingly be much more logical in rewarding teams that are able to win games inside of regulation.
Games involving two Eastern Conference teams have required overtime at an even greater rate than we have seen from non-East-on-East matchups, and that trend has held true for the Canadiens, who have required overtime 33.3% of the time this season. Given that Saturday’s price still implies this game will go to overtime only 23.8% of the time, that is an encouraging mark.
And while common logic would suggest this is a game where a regulation win would be more desired than usual for either division rival, this is a spot where it seems unlikely that either side will garner much separation on the scoreboard and will logically be closely contested, which is what we want when targeting a tie at a long price.
The Bruins seemingly have not been as dominant as their recent record suggests, as over the last 10 games they hold a 48.89% expected goal share but have scored on 14.23% of shots on goal and have a team save percentage of .913 to earn plenty of wins.
The Bruins do not profile as a team that seems likely to finish scoring chances at one of the highest rates in the league moving forward, and their chance creation numbers are not overly impressive. For those reasons it does not seem likely that they will blow out the Canadiens in this spot on home ice, but they should be able to make it quite competitive with Jeremy Swayman in goal.
The Canadiens would be my lean in terms of backing a side currently priced as underdogs, but at a price of +320, there also looks to be value in betting this game to be deadlocked through regulation.
Leg 2: Under 7.5 Goals Alternate Total
Though adding this leg would have cost us our win backing last Saturday’s Canadiens matchup to go to overtime, it seems safe enough to add in this specific game for me to believe it’s worthwhile in pushing our parlay to +440.
As outlined, the Bruins have been finishing chances at a very high rate recently, despite the underlying metrics suggesting that many of their scoring chances are not all that threatening. While I’m not sold that the Bruins will manage offence as effectively moving forward, they do seem capable of insulating one of the league’s best goaltenders effectively enough to find success defensively.
Jeremy Swayman has played to a .903 save percentage and +12.8 GSAx rating across 34 games played this season and has allowed only four goals against across his last three starts on home ice.
It does seem likely that this matchup will feature more of a playoff-type feel, and it seems logical to expect both teams to check with urgency and look well organized defensively. Totals tend to drop in the playoffs and in more critical matchups, and it seems reasonable to expect that narrative to hold true in this matchup.
In betting the total to come in under 7.5 with our regulation tie leg we are essentially just looking to avoid a 4-4 or 5-5 scoreline, and with that in mind it does seem worth adding this leg to push the payout to +440.
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