At long last, Mitch Marner will finally face off against the Toronto Maple Leafs for the first time since departing last summer after nine tumultuous, albeit highly productive, seasons with the team.
It’s a little disappointing that this matchup comes tucked away at 9:30 ET on a Thursday night with the Knights playing the second leg of a back-to-back, but it is still a highly intriguing matchup for NHL fans nonetheless, and a game that will surely garner a little added energy from both clubs.
It also comes at an interesting time, as both sides have been in strong form of late. The Maple Leafs have gotten themselves back into the playoff race with a record of 7-1-2 over the last 10 games, while the Knights have won five straight following an overtime win in Los Angeles Wednesday evening.
Our same game parlay comes out to +725 at the time of writing and is eligible for the 30% same-game parlay boost offered by bet365 for Thursday’s NHL slate.
- Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline
- Bobby McMann Over 1.5 Shots on Goal
- Joseph Woll Over 26.5 Saves
- Mitch Marner Over 1.5 Shots on Goal
Nick’s Maple Leafs/Knights SGP
Leg 1—Maple Leafs Moneyline
Following arguably their best performance of the year in Colorado, the Leafs completely no-showed in Tuesday’s matchup versus the Utah Mammoth, losing 6-1 in a game that never felt overly competitive to end their 10-game point streak. The underlying metrics suggest that they have not been as dominant as their recent results suggest, which I would agree with to some extent.
Still, this matchup feels like a little more of a toss-up than the betting prices suggest, with Toronto currently priced at +115. The Leafs’ power play has been drastically more effective of late, which, coupled with some high-quality goaltending, has allowed them to find success despite holding an expected goal share of just 42.84% in even strength over the last 10 games.
Head coach Craig Berube’s systems are designed to limit true defensive breakdowns by limiting high-risk plays in turn for slightly less possession and an ability to mainly give up pressured shots from the outside. Toronto has struck a better balance of allowing the type of shots it intends to of late, a system that has worked out respectably because its goaltenders have generally been quite sharp.
The Knights’ goaltending has been a concern all season long, and that remains true despite the fact that Adin Hill is likely to return in Thursday’s matchup, on what happens to be his bobblehead night. Hill holds an .888 save percentage and -1.0 GSAx across five games this season, and after nearly a three-month hiatus, it’s tough to feel confident that he will be overly sharp in this matchup.
The Knights are also just 10-9 straight up versus Eastern Conference sides, and 10-12 straight up on home ice. Those numbers suggest Vegas’s home-ice advantage is fairly muted, and that it may hold a lesser record if it were to play in the extremely deep Atlantic Division as the Leafs do.
Because of the +115 price tag, I’m happy to lead off or parlay with Toronto to win, particularly because it actually correlates quite well with Woll to record over 26.5 saves.
Leg 2—Bobby McMann Over 1.5 Shots on Goal
The Knights don’t allow many shots to their opponents, but backing McMann to record over 1.5 shots on goal still seems worth it considering his recent form and the fact that he has been promoted back onto what has been a highly effective top line alongside Auston Matthews and Matthew Knies.
Most Leafs observers would happily agree that McMann’s play has really stood out of late. He’s one of the faster straight line skaters in the league and has been consistently involved all over the ice. And in general, McMann has been fairly geared towards pouring pucks on goal this season, ranking third in shot attempts per 60.
Over the last 11 games, McMann has averaged 2.81 shots on goal per game and recorded over 1.5 shots on goal nine times.
Leg 3—Joseph Woll Over 26.5 Saves
Adding this leg to the rest of our parlay moves the price from +400 to +725, which is pretty enticing given that it actually correlates fairly well with a Leafs win despite the general logic that if the Knights pour this many shots on target, it should mean Toronto did not defend entirely well.
Often broadcasters point out a given team’s record when a goaltender makes “x” amount of saves, and usually the record is surprisingly strong when the save total is high. In general, this is because teams that are trailing push for offence, and if a goaltender made that many saves, it generally tends to indicate that the opponent could not break through.
Across Woll’s last six wins he has averaged 29.83 saves per game, and if Toronto is to win this matchup, it will likely take another strong showing from Woll. As noted above, the Leafs hold a 42.84% expected goal share in even-strength play over the last 10 games, allowing 30.25 shots against per 60.
Leg 4—Mitch Marner Over 1.5 Shots on Goal
Marner is obviously most known as a playmaker, but he has fired 10 shots on goal from a total of 17 attempts over the last three matchups.
We aren’t reaching too far into the narrative to believe that he could be a little more inspired in this matchup to think he can record over 1.5 shots on target where he may receive a few extra minutes, particularly given our need for 27 saves out of Woll, and the fact that Toronto still allows a ton of shots against to opposing shooters.
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