Following a 6-3 win over the Vancouver Canucks Monday evening, the Montreal Canadiens are now 10-3-2 over their last 15 games and have scored 3.73 goals per game in that span.
Despite their strong results of late, the Canadiens are priced at +115 to win Tuesday versus a Washington Capitals side that is just 5-8-2 over the last 15 games and has allowed 3.60 goals against per game in that span.
Related: Check out Canada Sports Betting’s best NHL bets for Jan. 13 with our AI-generated audio recap.
It seems reasonable to expect a fairly high-event matchup between these two sides Tuesday, and this looks like a good spot to put together a three-leg parlay, which is eligible for the 30% same game parlay boost offered by bet365 for Tuesday’s NHL slate. Our parlay comes out to +410 (prior to the 30% boost), and we will be targeting a shooter from each side to go over their shot prop and banking on red-hot Capitals defender John Carlson to record a point,
- John Carlson Over 0.5 Points
- Connor McMichael Over 1.5 Shots on Goal
- Cole Caufield Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
Nick’s Canadiens/Habs SGP
Leg 1—John Carlson Over 0.5 Points
As outlined in Tuesday’s player props piece, backing Carlson to record a point at -110 appears to hold value in this matchup, and to also have standalone value as a straight bet.
The Capitals have a fairly high team total in this matchup, as they are priced at +110 to score over 3.5 goals at the time of writing on bet365.
Montreal has been better defensively of late, but still ranks near the middle of the NHL in allowing 3.43 xGA/60 over the last 15 games, and this is a fairly tough travelling back-to-back spot to take on a Capitals side that is 13-8-3 on home ice. Samuel Montembeault has been in better form over his last three appearances, but still holds an .869 save percentage and 3.39 GAA this season.
With those thoughts in mind, it seems reasonable to believe that the Capitals have a pretty solid chance of authoring a quality offensive output, as oddsmakers are expecting.
If the Capitals do manage some offence, it seems logical that John Carlson will find his way onto the scoresheet. The 36-year old continues to display elite puck-moving ability and strong offensive instincts and has put up six points over the last five games while averaging 23:31 of time-on-ice.
Carlson has recorded at least one point in 57.1% of games played this season, which suggests that in a matchup where his team is favoured and expected to generate some offence, -110 is a pretty strong price for Carlson to record a point.
And if Jakob Chychrun, who is considered a game-time decision, is to miss this game, head coach Spencer Carbery would likely lean a little more heavily upon Carlson’s pairing in this matchup.
Leg 2—Connor McMichael Over 1.5 Shots on Goal
With Tom Wilson and Pierre-Luc Dubois sidelined, McMichael has become a more critical piece for the Capitals and has been playing more minutes of late.
Over the last 10 games, McMichael has averaged 19:01 of time-on-ice, and he’s been fairly productive in producing nine points in that span. His shot volume has risen significantly, as he’s generated 2.2 shots on goal and 3.9 attempts per game during that stretch and recorded over 1.5 shots on goal seven times.
As Justin Sourdif will miss this matchup due to injury, McMichael will move back to the middle of the ice, and will play alongside Ryan Leonard and Sonny Milano. For the sake of this prop I’d actually prefer to see McMichael remain alongside Sourdif and Leonard because of how excellent that line has been recently, but the adjustment doesn’t concern me enough to pass on this prop considering McMichael’s recent volume and the fact that his workload should remain the same.
Leg 3—Cole Caufield Over 2.5 Shots on Goal
Over the last 15 games, the Capitals have allowed 30.57 shots against per 60 and 3.85 xGA/60. They are without their two best defensive forwards in Wilson and Dubois, and as noted, could also be without a key defender in Chychrun. Montreal’s top line should have a good chance of generating scoring chances in this matchup, but it’s also a game that figures to be competitive enough for head coach Martin St. Louis to offer his top stars a full workload.
Entering a favourable matchup for Caufield to generate shots on target, his recent volume has been quite encouraging. Over the last 10 games, Caufield has averaged 3.4 shots on goal per game and recorded over 2.5 shots on goal seven times. He’s also averaged 6.4 shot attempts per game in that span.
Across a sample size of 94 minutes, the Canadiens’ current top line of Caufield, Nick Suzuki, and Alexandre Texier has been absolutely dominating the opposition. They hold a 67.5% expected goal share and have outscored opponents 9-2 while generating 73.44 shot attempts per 60.
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