Join Canada Sports Betting’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL player prop bets available from Monday’s nine-game slate.
Best bet—Linus Karlsson to score: +450
Linus Karlsson to score
There have not been many positives to write home about for the Vancouver Canucks this season, but in his first full season at the NHL level, Linus Karlsson has undoubtedly been one skater that has outperformed expectations and he earned a two-year contract extension as a result.
Canucks head coach Adam Foote has been reluctant to give Karlsson an overly noteworthy role this season, as Karlsson has averaged just 10:52 of time-on-ice this season. Perhaps part of the front office’s thinking in re-signing Karlsson now is a belief that the price could rise if he were to have garnered more usage, though that would then still make the two-year term somewhat puzzling.
Karlsson has scored 1.35 goals per 60 this season, which ranks first among all Canucks skaters to play over 100 minutes. That mark is a hair better than the injured Kiefer Sherwood’s clip, which appears to be opening the door for Karlsson to receive a much more significant role than usual on the top line alongside Elias Pettersson and Jake DeBrusk.
Karlsson’s 10-goal output in 41 games is not overly surprising, as he has also generated 1.44 expected goals per 60, which is second only to DeBrusk among all Canucks skaters, and is a mark that could potentially improve skating alongside more talented offensive skaters.
Karlsson’s overall underlying profile is quite strong, as he holds an expected goals above replacement rating of +8.7, and that strong mark is mainly generated by his strong offensive metrics.
Pettersson, DeBrusk, and Karlsson have played 41.8 minutes together at even strength this season, and in that small sample they have formed a highly effective trio that has generated 5.60 xGF/60 and generated 79.04 shot attempts per 60.
With Jakub Dobes set to start in goal, the Montreal Canadiens provide a fairly strong matchup for Karlsson and the Canucks’ top line to generate some offence in this matchup. Over the last month, the Canadiens have allowed 3.48 xGA/60, which ranks right in the middle of the NHL (17th), but Dobes has been a below-average starter with an .889 save percentage and 3.01 GAA.
Karlsson has scored in 21.95% of games this season, which suggests that +450 (18% implied probability) is a respectable price regardless of where he is in the lineup. Given that this is a solid matchup for production and Karlsson’s expected role, this looks like a good time to back an underrated offensive skater in Karlsson to score his 11th of the campaign.
It’s not been confirmed that Sherwood will miss this game, but the Canucks will likely be cautious with a very tradable asset considering their 32nd rank in the NHL standings, and if that is the case, this looks to be a strong bet.
Best bet—Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad 1+ Point Each: -115
Panarin/Zibanejad points parlay
Monday’s matchup between the Seattle Kraken and New York Rangers appears to be a good time to go back to the Panarin/Zibanejad stack, a play that has been fairly good to us this season.
Panarin and Zibanejad have combined for 71 points over the last 30 games. Over the last 10 games, the two have combined for 30 points, and recorded a point in the same game in seven of those matchups. They are set to remain together on the top line in Monday’s matchup and also skate together on the Rangers’ top power-play unit.
Panarin and Zibanejad have fared well when joined by Will Cuylle on the top line, which will be Monday’s combination based on the morning skate. In 115.3 minutes together, the trio has scored 3.12 goals per 60 where it counts and holds a 55.7% expected goal share.
Though the Kraken have been getting solid results recently where it counts, their underlying results suggest this is still quite a favourable matchup for New York’s two leading scorers in Panarin and Zibanejad. Over the last 15 games, the Kraken have allowed 4.23 xGA/60, which is the worst mark in the entire NHL.
Philipp Grubauer has bounced back with a surprisingly excellent campaign after being a well below average starter for three straight campaigns, with a save percentage of .925 and a GAA of 2.27. Goaltending is tough to project, but I’m not sold that Grubauer can continue to be dominant enough to hide Seattle’s suspect defensive play moving forward.
With the Rangers looking to bounce back from a horrific 10-2 loss in Monday’s matchup, I’m counting on a solid performance from their top two forwards in a matchup where they should be able to generate plenty of quality scoring chances.
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