In this article, I’ll outline the most noteworthy NHL odds, news, and betting insights from Monday’s four-game NHL slate, and I’ll also offer up my best pick of the night.
Pick—St. Louis Blues vs Tampa Bay Lightning: Lightning -1.5 +110
Lightning puck line
The Tampa Bay Lightning have suffered through a lesser stretch of play of late, as they enter Monday’s matchup versus the lowly Blues with a record of just 3-6-1 over the last 10 games. Still, at full health they appear to hold the best roster in the Atlantic Division (given that Aleksander Barkov is out for the year), and it seems safe to say that head coach Jon Cooper’s group will start trending back in the right direction before the Olympic break.
Tampa Bay ranks fourth in expected goal share this season and holds the best goal differential in the Eastern Conference. Though it’s a disappointment for the team to rank third place in the division, the totality of what it has accomplished is impressive, and in Monday’s matchup it will have a more complete lineup than we have seen for much of the season.
As is the case for many Eastern Conference playoff hopefuls, the Lightning have beaten up on softer Western Conference teams this season, as they hold a record of 8-4-0 versus the West so far this year.
The Blues earned a surprising 6-2 win on Saturday versus a Florida Panthers side that was playing the second leg of a back-to-back, but that result seems likely to be an outlier for a team that currently looks quite unconvincing. In the month of December, the Blues hold an expected goal share of 46.05% and have scored just 2.36 goals per game.
With Jordan Kyrou, Dylan Holloway and Jimmy Snuggerud all sidelined, the Blues’ offensive attack looks quite muted on paper, and it should have a hard time keeping pace with a much more dynamic Lightning offence in this game.
Jordan Binnington had one of his better performances of the year in Thursday’s 2-1 shootout loss to the New York Rangers but still appears to be a drastically worse option than Lightning starter Andrei Vasilevskiy, whose absence was one reason the Lightning’s results have been worse over the last 10 games. Binnington holds a -8.7 GSAx rating and .873 save percentage in 22 appearances this season.
I’m expecting a strong effort from what will be a more complete Lightning roster in Monday’s matchup, and at +110, we appear to be getting a good price to back a Lightning side with the best goal differential in the East covering the puck line versus a Blues side that looks to be in the bottom tier of the league currently.
Vancouver Canucks @ Philadelphia Flyers
| Canucks moneyline odds | +115 |
| Flyers moneyline odds | -135 |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-105), Under 5.5 (-115) |
| Time | 7:37 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
- The Canucks are 4-0-0 since trading away Quinn Hughes and will complete their five-game Eastern road trip with this matchup. Marco Rossi, Zeev Buium, and Liam Ohgren have all had solid starts to their tenures in Vancouver, which, in a small sample, has been decent compensation for the loss of Hughes, who did seem somewhat checked out during his final few games with the team.
- Perhaps the greater reason for the Canucks’ surprising heater has been the return of Thatcher Demko, who’s been tremendous when available this season with a +12.2 GSAx rating and .913 save percentage in 14 appearances. Demko is likely to start this game after Kevin Lankinen started Saturday in Boston.
- Christian Dvorak is day-to-day after missing Saturday’s matchup versus the New York Rangers but returned to his regular role as the top line centre at Monday’s morning skate.
- This game might draw a little added attention from the Flyers as head coach Rick Tocchet takes on his former side.
- Tocchet’s tenure in Philadelphia has started quite well given that his side holds a playoff spot at 17-10-1, but the main point of contention has been the play of Matvei Michkov, who has recorded 19 points while averaging just 14:43 of time-on-ice. Michkov’s game certainly holds some flaws, but it also may be short-sighted to solely use the franchise’s most important skater on the third line and offer very few minutes given the long-term outlook of the team.
Columbus Blue Jackets @ Los Angeles Kings
| Blue Jackets moneyline odds | +145 |
| Kings moneyline odds | -170 |
| Game total | Over 5.5 goals (-120), Under 5.5 (+100) |
| Time | 10:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
- Zach Werenski is listed as day-to-day after blocking a shot in Saturday’s loss to the Anaheim Ducks. Werenski has been in tremendous form of late and is without question the Blue Jackets’ most impactful skater, so his absence would obviously move the needle significantly from a handicapping perspective.
- Even without Werenski in the lineup, the Blue Jackets look fairly tempting given how many tight matchups the Kings have played with some of the worst teams in the league due to their lack of offensive upside. The Kings have scored just 2.56 goals per game this season.
- Darcy Kuemper’s brilliance behind a strong defensive side has allowed the Kings to play to a solid record, but Kuemper will remain sidelined due to injury in this matchup. Anton Forsberg has been effective this season, playing to a +3.5 GSAx rating and .900 save percentage in 12 starts this season.
- It’s probably just statistical noise and the splits could level off moving forward, but the Kings are just 4-6-4 on home ice this season after putting up a historically strong mark on home ice last season.
Seattle Kraken @ Anaheim Ducks
| Kraken moneyline odds | +160 |
| Ducks moneyline odds | -190 |
| Game total | Over 6.5 goals (-115), Under 6.5 (-105) |
| Time | 10:07 p.m. ET |
Odds courtesy of bet365.
- The Kraken snapped a four-game losing skid with a 4-2 win over the San Jose Sharks on Saturday. Seattle is now 2-8-0 over the last 10 games and ranks second to last with a 41.1% expected goal share in that span. It is 6-7-3 on the road this season.
- The Ducks are 12-5-0 on home ice this season and still rank first in the Pacific Division despite a modest 5-4-1 record over the last 10 games.
- Head coach Joel Quenneville reunited Chris Kreider, Leo Carlsson, and Troy Terry on the top line in Saturday’s win over the Blue Jackets, which seems logical given the trio has generally been quite effective this season.
- With Jared McCann sidelined due to injury, Kaapo Kakko skated on the Kraken’s top line alongside Jordan Eberle and Matty Beniers on Saturday.