NHL Odds, Betting Insights, & Picks For December 4

In this article, I’ll outline the most noteworthy odds, news, and betting notes from the marquee games from Thursday’s 10-game NHL slate, and I’ll also offer up my best bet of the night.

Best bet—Blackhawks Moneyline: +180

The Chicago Blackhawks have come down to Earth with a record of just 3-4-3 across their last 10 games. They were one of the most logical regression candidates in the NHL after their surprisingly strong start, and it certainly makes sense to see that they have struggled to achieve the same level of results recently.

The Los Angeles Kings, meanwhile, are 5-2-3 over the last 10 games and, as has typically been the case over the last several years, hold strong underlying metrics in that span with a 55.3% expected goal share. While the Kings do control play at a high rate, they still have some weaknesses that make me interested in fading them at this long of a number.

Los Angeles ranks 30th in power play success rate, and based on the past several seasons, it seems foolish to believe that its power play will find significantly greater success moving forward. The Kings roster doesn’t offer a ton of high-end offensive talents, and though their underlying metrics suggest positive offensive regression is on the horizon, they certainly have not looked overly threatening offensively, which has been well evidenced in recent matchups versus several weak teams.

Excluding the Washington Capitals’ empty-net goal on Tuesday to seal a 3-1 win, the Kings have played nine consecutive one-goal games. In that span they beat the Vancouver Canucks 2-1 in overtime, lost in overtime to a depleted Boston Bruins side, lost in a shootout to the San Jose Sharks, and beat what was a very withered and out-of-form Toronto Maple Leafs team 4-3 in overtime.

My point is that even when the Kings have played some of the NHL’s most out-of-form sides recently, it’s still been a coin flip one way or another. With that in mind, the Blackhawks look likely to at least hang around in this matchup and give us a chance of cashing in on a really long price of +180.

Following a 9-3 loss to the Buffalo Sabres, the Blackhawks have played a pretty respectable string of games, including one-goal losses versus the overpowering Colorado Avalanche and the searing-hot Minnesota Wild (in 3-on-3), and kicked off their current road swing with a 4-3 shootout loss to the Vegas Golden Knights.

Spencer Knight has been one of the best goaltenders in the NHL this season, playing to a +15.5 GSAx rating and .917 save percentage in 18 appearances. If Knight is in goal, the scrappy young Blackhawks should have a good chance of hanging around in this matchup versus a Kings side that has struggled to generate offence all season long, and I’m happy to take a shot with the Hawks at +180.

Nashville Predators @ Florida Panthers

Predators moneyline odds	+160
Panthers moneyline odds	–190
Game total	Over 6 goals (-115), Under 6 (-105)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• The Florida Panthers looked overvalued entering the season, and I’m obviously thrilled to have bet them coming in under a total of 106.5 points. That bet obviously received a big setback with Aleksander Barkov missing the entirety of the season, followed by a slew of other injuries. The Panthers currently sit second to last in points percentage in the Eastern Conference, and betting them to win every matchup this season would have yielded a -18.6% ROI.
• The most obvious reason for the Panthers’ struggles has been the losses of Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk. Beyond that, the underlying metrics suggest they have been pretty unlucky, as they rank fifth in expected goal share. They are also probably typically getting most teams’ very best efforts after back-to-back championships, and there’s probably a level of fatigue from having played in three straight Stanley Cup finals.
• With all of that said, the Panthers are being priced like an elite team. Chances are they will start to earn better results as the possibility of missing the playoffs becomes more real, but I’m not sure on a game-by-game basis there is value in betting on the upswing given the way oddsmakers are power-rating the team.
• This is the second meeting of the season between these two sides, and the Panthers won the first meeting, 8-3, in Nashville on November 24th.
• The Predators are 3-3-0 since Roman Josi returned to the lineup.

St. Louis Blues @ Boston Bruins

Blues moneyline odds	-150
Bruins moneyline odds	+125
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (-120), Under 5.5 (+100)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• It has been confirmed that David Pastrnak will remain sidelined in this matchup, and as a result, most online sportsbooks have moved the Blues close to -150. The best remaining number to bet the Blues at the time of writing is -137, which looks pretty enticing.
• The obvious concern if you are betting on the Blues here is that Jordan Binnington has been one of the worst goaltenders in the NHL this season with a -5.6 GSAx and .878 save percentage in 18 games, while Jeremy Swayman has been excellent with a +17.1 GSAx rating and .910 save percentage in 18 games played.
• Is Binnington playing himself off of Team Canada’s Olympic roster? I’d guess not, but it will be interesting to see how far Canada is willing to reach to bring him back based on his previous results if he does not start to elevate his level to some extent.
• The Bruins are 4-6-0 over the last 10 games, while the Blues are 3-3-4. The Bruins hold the worst expected goal share in the NHL in that span, which obviously is in part due to the absences of Charlie McAvoy and Pastrnak.

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Carolina Hurricanes

Leafs moneyline odds	+180
Hurricanes moneyline odds	–220
Game total	Over 6 goals (–125), Under 6 (+105)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• As hard as I have been on head coach Craig Berube and the Toronto Maple Leafs in these breakdowns and all my content this season, it feels like they do have something going right now. There really hasn’t been many Leafs games where they have clearly been the better team this season, but that has been the case in their consecutive multi-goal victories over the Pittsburgh Penguins and Panthers.
• Toronto’s new-look third line of Dakota Joshua, Nicolas Roy, and Bobby McMann has been excellent throughout the last two games. That’s a massive development for the Leafs, as their bottom six has been a disgrace this season.
• Joseph Woll has been fantastic since returning from a personal leave of absence, which is another major cause for optimism for Toronto. Woll holds a +4.1 GSAx and a .920 save percentage in seven appearances this season.
• The Hurricanes obviously provide a formidable test, which is well reflected by their -220 price tag. Carolina is 8-3-1 on home ice this season and continues to heavily outplay most opponents.

Detroit Red Wings @ Columbus Blue Jackets

Red Wings moneyline odds	+100
Blue Jackets moneyline odds	–120
Game total	Over 6.5 goals (-115), Under 6.5 (-105)
Time	7:37 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• Kirill Marchenko will return to the Blue Jackets lineup. His importance to the team is quite overstated, which is well reflected by both his on-ice goal differential and the team’s results with and without him over the last two seasons. The Blue Jackets are 29-17 straight up on home ice with Marchenko in the lineup over the last two seasons.
• Marchenko is expected to return to his usual roles on the team’s top line alongside Dmitri Voronkov and Adam Fantilli and the top power play. Over the last two seasons Marchenko, Voronkov, and Fantilli have outscored opponents 28-15 in even-strength play.
• Elvis Merzlikins has been confirmed as the Blue Jackets starter. Merzilikins holds +1.9 GSAx rating and .895 save percentage across 10 appearances this season.
• This is the second meeting of the season between these two Wild Card hopefuls, and this is a sneaky-big game as it’s not likely either team can earn a divisional berth, meaning they are likely competing for the same playoff spots. Detroit won the first meeting, 4-3, in overtime on November 22nd.

New York Rangers @ Ottawa Senators

Rangers moneyline odds	+110
Senators moneyline odds	–130
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (-115), Under 5.5 (-105)
Time	7:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• The Rangers looked pretty tempting at their opening price of +130, but unfortunately I did not pull the trigger, and my belief is that at +110 the prices are fair even with Leevi Merilainen set to start for the Senators.
• In their first game without Adam Fox on Tuesday, the Rangers earned a 3-2 overtime win over the Dallas Stars, racking up 41 shots on goal. They are 11-4-1 on the road this season.
• This is the Senators’ first home game since completing a seven-game road trip with a 5-2 victory over the Canadiens Tuesday evening. Ottawa went 4-3-0 on the strenuous road trip.
• The Senators remain without two key defenders, as Thomas Chabot and Artem Zub are both sidelined.

Minnesota Wild @ Calgary Flames

Wild moneyline odds	-120
Flames moneyline odds	+100
Game total	Over 5.5 goals (-125), Under 5.5 (+105)
Time	9:07 p.m. ET

Odds courtesy of bet365.

• The vast majority of bettors will be highly surprised to see that the Wild are only -120 favourites in this matchup versus the 32nd-ranked Flames. While I’m not necessarily trying to talk anyone off the Wild, I’ll outline some thoughts on what oddsmakers are seeing here.
• Though the Wild are 8-0-2 over the last 10 games, they hold an expected goal share of just 49.33% in those games, and have seen historically strong goaltending with a team save percentage of .953. For reference, Connor Hellebuyck won the Hart Trophy with a .925 save percentage last season. There’s more to hockey than expected goal share, but it’s a near impossibility that the Wild’s team save percentage holds remotely close to what it has been recently.
• It also seems more likely that this start will go to Filip Gustavsson, as opposed to Jesper Wallstedt. Gustavsson has been rock-solid with a +7.4 GSAx and .906 save percentage in 17 games, but those numbers are still far off of Wallstedt’s otherworldly ones.
• Relative to their actual results, the Flames do hold strong underlying results, but it’s not as though oddsmakers haven’t been giving too much credit to the Flames for those metrics either. Betting on Calgary to win every game this season would have led to a -29.6% ROI.

Seattle Kraken vs Edmonton Oilers

Kraken moneyline odds	+185
Oilers moneyline odds	–225
Game total	Over 6 goals (+100), Under 6 (-120)
Time	9:07 p.m. ET

• These teams met Saturday in Seattle, and the Oilers won 4-0 after closing at -150. While this does appear to be another good spot for the Oilers to win, -225 does seem to credit that effectively given that Edmonton just closed at -150 versus Seattle, even if now it does have home-ice advantage.
• The Oilers suffered a 1-0 loss to the Minnesota Wild on Tuesday, outshooting Minnesota 33-24. They did not generate a ton of truly threatening scoring chances, but it would still have to be viewed as a fairly unlucky loss, and another step in the right direction defensively.
• The Kraken have lost three straight games and hold the second worst expected goal share in the NHL throughout their last 10 games.